ジムリーダーの城　対戦考察Ｗｉｋｉ

At Retro Cup 2024 Round 1, chio(the auther) repeatedly misplayed, so I imposed measures to myself to prevent it from happening again.
I concluded that these misplays were caused by multiple mental health factors, so I took steps to address those factors.

The following games with MrSoup were particularly problematic.
This was BO1, but game 1 was tied, so game 2 was played.

https://www.Smogon.com/forums/threads/retro-cup-of...

For these games, I recognized one misplay in game 1 and three misplays in game 2.
(plus, I played with two other players, and there was one misplay due to a sleep turn count error against one of them)

Regarding game 2, I felt more miserable and devastated than I have ever experienced in my career(including Japanese NC2000 experience), but when I analyzed it rationally, there being 3 misplays in one game has happened in the past too.
However, in the past cases it was due to lack of knowledge due to change my career from NC2000 to GSCOU immediately, and this time it's not the cause.
And since the recent probability of misplaying in GSCOU is once every 2-3 games, I misplay more frequently than this, and I recognized that something bad was happening to me which needed to be addressed.
(The frequency of once every 2-3 games is also not good at all. It was even less when I was in Japanese NC2000. I aim to reduce the its frequency even more.)

• Turn 45
  • From the message "super effective" and the number of damage for Cloyster, I was able to determine the existence of HP Grass. Intead of this, I went to Golem instead of Snorlax.
  • This misplay made tie instead of high probability of winning.
  • I misunderstood this situation based on my assumptions, and thought that Cloyster had fainted with Thunderbolt. I was clicking the button with skipping animations and also not reading messages.

• The sequence of Turn 15-20
  • In Snorlax vs Snorlax, I switched out with my Snorlax's HP reduced without being able to defeat the opponent's Snorlax. It's not good if you just look at the results.
  • However, at Turn 15, my Snorlax was in a good position against his Snorlax, and I didn't have an absolute advantage which would allow to a completely passive play. And, without the above misplay, Snorlax's HP would have been properly managed on the edge, so I determined that this play was not a misplay.

• Turn 6 or 13
  • I should have set Spikes. This was a good way to keep Steelix working while also cornering Gengar.
  • Surf in Turn 6 was in anticipation of Explosion, and even if the opponent switched out to Gengar, it was meaningful because it would chip it. I wouldn't consider this to be misplay on its own.
  • At Turn 13, I had revealed Umbreon, so he could predict that my Snorlax was MonoLax, and I could expect him to switch out to protect Gengar. However, although the possibility of using Thunderbolt cannot be ruled out, the probability of getting OHKOed by this is about 50%(in addition, since my Cloyster has HP Electric, the true probability is over 80%), and there is also a probability that the opponent will take that gamble, making this judgment difficult. So, I wouldn't consider this to be misplay on its own too.
  • The reason why I recognized this to be misplay was because I was running the Electric less offense. Since I didn't have Electric which could easily fish Snorlax and Golem, I didn't have a chance to safely switch in Cloyster, and by missing the timing mentioned above, I lost the opportunity to set Spikes.

• Turn 32
  • I have confirmed through test play that it's often not a mistake to use Toxic when facing Golem, but it was the game which the wincon was that Umbreon defeat Gengar, and Umbreon was under the precarious posision due to lose Leftovers. So, I shouldn't have pushed hard with Umbreon. Switching out to Cloyster, Charizard, or Exeggutor would have been reasonable.
  • This misplay was fatal. In Turn 33, I was already in a pretty bad position. Even if I predicted Explosion and checked it out, it was quite difficult to recover Umbreon.

• Turn 36
  • I can make the excuse that Explosion was predicted Thunder, but honestly I thought Zapdos still had sleep turn, so considering that thought process, it's a complete misplay.
  • Also, since my Snorlax was Resttalk moveset and difficult to defeat with Zapdos, moreover the opponent could be safely checked with Gar, so the predictability of HP Ice was high.

• Turn 41
  • Looking at the results alone, this play was extremely miserable, and seemed to symbolize a game that was falling apart from beginning to end.
  • However, my Snorlax is +1 with adequate of HP left, and there is the hidden mon in my side, if the opponent's Zapdos got a crit here, he may be reversed. Since he was already in a favorable position, it was possible to switch out to Gengar if he wanted to securely protect that position. If he went to Gengar and I double switched to Charizard, I can force him to choice speed tie gambling BellyDrum or defeated Gengar with Earthquake, giving me a small chance of reversal.
  • I needed to take this gamble because I was already in a decively bad position. I believe that by making this decision in a situation where there were few timers, I made a play that was appropriate for my skill as GSC veteran.

I determined that the high frequency of misplay was caused by multiple mental health issues.
I identified three factors as follows.

I knew that my opponent MrSoup was in 1st place in one of the 2024 seasonal tournaments, so to be honest, I had an inferiority complex.
Even in the preparation, I thought it would be difficult to win.
I think this inferiority complex has messed up my play.
In game 1, I got so excited that I was about to an unexpected win that I became less careful, and in unexpected game 2 I ended up feeling more desperate.

My mental state was terrible even before the game 2 started.
I should have known from watching all 2024 SPL games which included the case that if game 1 is tie in BO1, there would be a rematch where teams could be changed, but my thinking ability had deteriorated to the point where I was asking the opponent the obvious question which is "what is the treatment in the case which is tie in BO1".

Furthermore, in another tournament, I also misplayed against another player probably due to an inferiority complex.
Also, it is generally said that inferiority complex lead to poor play.

This is definitely one of the factors that is deteriorating the quality of my play.

Even though I was in a bad mental state as mentioned above, I selected the team that I couldn't relax in game 2.

The team selected in game 2 had a good matchup with some teams that the opponent often uses, so it could have been the correct choice.
However, that team had not been sufficiently tested. As a result, I was forced to suffer from unexpected behavior from the Electric less offense team, and I completely lost my mental health.
(If I had regained my mental health, at least I wouldn't have misplayed like Turn 36)

However, even if it was a team which didn't have enough test play, if it was a stall team or a balance/offense team including passive elements, I might have regained my mental health.
(I tend to feel comfortable in such a team due to the play style established at Japanese NC2000 and my personality. I tend to naturally play passively when my thinking ability declines, so this tendency matches well with such teams.)
However, in this case, that was not the case.

I used to be a fan of the work "Is the order a rabbit?", but I stopped being a fan in May 2024 because I was angry at the Japanese fans who acted selfishly and the director who was friendly with them in private.
However, this caused more damage to my mental health than I could have imagined. I lost motivation to play games for three months and became a workaholic.
(Work is like drugs and cigarettes to me)

In August, my mental health had recovered enough to post on the Smogon forums, and at just the right time, Fluore invited me to RCOP, so I participated in it, but my mental health was by no means perfect and I would not have participated in any tournament if I hadn't been invited.
I've relapsed into the habit of miscounting sleep turns in pokemon showdown game which I thought I overcame last year, so there may still be some mental damage left.

I implemented the following measures to prevent recurrence for each of the three factors that lead to misplays.

I'm aware that my evaluation as a GSCOU player is lower than top player's, and I understand that I need to behave that way.
However, in the game it's different. I need to erase my inferiority complex by self-implying that I have the ability to match the top players.

In the first place, I have a powerful weapons which are high research ability + established counter play ability, deep knowledge of GSC competitive play including niches based on understanding of Japanese literature accumulated over 20 years (I'm a person who could be a librarian of Japanese literature), and a deep understanding of GSC mechanics (I used to make simulators in Japan).
Moreover, I seldom suprise since GSCOU's unique tactics recently.
Even objectively speaking, I already have the potential to threaten top players.

The time to be scared is over.

Based on the following process for team operations, the teams I use are divided into two groups.
One is "Managed team" which has high consistency and is maintained to be ready for use at any time, and the other is "Temporary team" which is used for counterplay against specific players.
https://seesaawiki.jp/pbs-thread/d/Proposals%20for...

The team I used in game 2 is a team classified as "Managed team", and it was correct to use this team when something unexpected happened.
However, the team used in game 2 had not been sufficiently tested and could not be said to be managed appropriately as a "managed team".

The team I used in game 2 was a team that just copied another player's team and slightly tuned it.
However, I neglected to sufficient test it myself, using the excuse that other players were already testing it.

I decided to take measures to prevent recurrence by rechecking the operation of the "Managed Team."
I have decided to exclude all teams which have not been sufficiently tested or teams which are recognized to lack sufficient consistency for some reason from the scope of "Managed teams."

Plus, in preparation for the deterioration of mental health, I'll may conduct adhoc operations to increase frequency of the use of stall teams and balance/offense teams including passive elements.

When the tournament started, I often felt depressed and frustrated, but I relaxed and felt regaining my thinking ability by chatting on Team Asia's server which has a similar feeling to the "Is the order a rabbit?" server which I used to belong to.
(I should note that this chat later led to my (and several teammates') Smogon ban on 03/24/2025. Unfortunately, my mentality is not strong enough to always be exemplary and perform well at the same time. Other than this incident, I always felt pressured by the strict culture of Smogon, which restricted my creativity and even made it difficult to continue my activities. I had my own wiki and even simulator and had established a highly independent position in competitive GSC development. This was compatible with the free culture of the Japanese GLC community. However, I guess I didn't suited person for Smogon in the first place.)

I realized that this may have something to do with mental health, so I mentally forgave the people who turned me away from this work and became a fan of it again.
As proof of that, I begin to use this work's icon for Discord.

At first glance, this measure to prevent a recurrence may seem stupid. However, I do anything that has the potential to improve the quality of play.