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否定論・陰謀論を信じる理由

不確実性に対する不寛容と陰謀論


不確実性あるいは「わからないこと」を容認できない傾向が強いと、その「わからないこと」の説明をつけてくれる陰謀論を信じやすくなる傾向がみられる。
Some people have a strong need for cognitive closure which can be thought of as an intolerance for uncertainty. Some people want answers now! In a study examining participants' beliefs in conspiracy theories surrounding the recent European refugee crisis and a hypothetical plane crash, researchers hypothesized that conspiracy theories, because they "offer simple answers" and "explanations for uncertain situations," should be found "attractive to individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty and seek cognitive closure."[4] The findings showed that participants with a high need for cognitive closure were more likely to adopt the conspiracy theories to explain these events when another explanation was unavailable.[5]

一部の人々は、不確実性に対する不寛容だと見なせる認知的閉鎖を強く必要としている。一部の人々は今すぐの答えを求めている。「最近のヨーロッパ難民危機と架空の航空機事故に関する陰謀説」に対する被験者信念を調査した研究で、研究者たちは「陰謀論が『単純な答え』と『不確実な状況への説明』を提供するので、不感実性に非寛容で、認知的閉鎖を求める被験者たちには陰謀論が魅力的である」と仮定した。この調査結果は、認知的閉鎖の必要性が高い被験者は、別の説明が得られないときにこれらの出来事を説明するために陰謀論を採用する可能性が高いことを示した。


[4,5] Marchlewska, Marta and Cichocka, Aleksandra and Kossowska, Malgorzata (2017) Addicted to answers: Need for cognitive closure and the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs. European Journal of Social Psychology

[ Joseph E. Uscinski: "Conspiracy Theories: A Primer", Rowman & Littlefield, Jan 15, 2020 , p.67 ]

論文としては...
Marchlewska, Marta and Cichocka, Aleksandra and Kossowska, Malgorzata (2017) Addicted to answers: Need for cognitive closure and the endorsement of conspiracy beliefs. European Journal of Social Psychology

Conspiracy theories offer simple answers to complex problems by providing explanations for uncertain situations. Thus, they should be attractive to individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty and seek cognitive closure. We hypothesized that need for cognitive closure (NFCC) should foster conspiracy beliefs about events that lack clear official explanations, especially when conspiracy theories are temporarily salient. In Experiment 1 NFCC positively predicted the endorsement of a conspiracy theory behind the refugee crisis, especially when conspiratorial explanations were made salient. Experiment 2 showed that when conspiratorial explanations were made salient, NFCC positively predicted beliefs in conspiracies behind a mysterious plane crash. However, the link between NFCC and beliefs in conspiratorial explanations was reversed in the case of a plane crash with an official, nonconspiratorial, explanation for the accident. In conclusion, people high (vs. low) in NFCC seize on conspiratorial explanations for uncertain events when such explanations are situationally accessible.

陰謀論は、不確実な状況の説明を提供することで、複雑な問題に対する簡単な答えを提供する。したがって、不確実性に耐えられず、認知的閉鎖を求める人にとって魅力的なはずである。我々は、認知的閉鎖(NFCC)への欲求は、特に陰謀論が一時的に目立った場合、明確な公式説明を欠く出来事についての陰謀の信念を助長すると仮定した。実験1では、NFCCは難民危機の背後にある陰謀説の支持を、特に陰謀的な説明が目立った場合に肯定的に予測した。実験2は、陰謀の説明が目立ったとき、NFCCは謎の航空機墜落についての陰謀信念を肯定的に予測することを示した。しかし、航空機墜落事故についての公式かつ非陰謀論的な説明がある場合は、NFCCと陰謀論的説明の信念との関係は、逆転した。結論として、NFCCの高い人(低い人)は、そのような説明が状況に応じてアクセスできる場合、不確実な出来事に対する陰謀的な説明を選択する。

この他、「不確実性に対する不寛容」に関する心理学研究はいろいろ行われており、たとえば...
Intolerance of uncertainty: Exploring its dimensionality and associations with need for cognitive closure, psychopathology, and personality, Journal of Anxiety Disorders 22 (2008) 117–125

The dimensionality and correlates of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS) were examined in a sample of 239 university students. In addition to completing the IUS, participants completed measures of worrying, anxious arousal, anhedonic depression, the big five personality dimensions, and the Need for Closure Scale. A factor analysis of the IUS suggested that it includes the following dimensions: (a) desire for predictability; (b) tendency to become paralyzed in the face of uncertainty; (c) tendency to experience distress in the face of uncertainty; and (d) inflexible uncertainty beliefs. Subscale scores computed on the basis of the factor analysis were differentially associated with the other variables.

不確実性に対する不寛容尺度(IUS)のディメンジョンと相関関係を、239人の大学生のサンプルで調査した。IUSに加えて、被験者は心配、不安覚醒、快感低下、ビッグファイブ性格の側面、および閉鎖の必要性尺度の測定を行った。IUSの因子分析は、次のディメンジョンを含むことを示唆した。(a)予測可能性への欲求、(b)不確実性に直面して麻痺する傾向、(c)不確実性に直面して苦痛を経験する傾向、(d)柔軟性に欠ける不確実性の信念。 因子分析に基づいて計算されたサブスケールスコアは、他の変数と微分的に関連付けられていた。

意思決定への影響とか...
Dane Jensen, Alexandra Jacowitz Kind, Amanda S. Morrison, and Richard G. Heimberg: "Intolerance of Uncertainty and Immediate Decision-Making in High-Risk Situations", Journal of Experimental Psychopathology, Volume 5 (2014), Issue 2, 178-190

Given evidence that individuals high in intolerance of uncertainty (IU; the tendency to experience unknown outcomes as unacceptably threatening) exhibit poorer decision-making strategies and are more behaviorally inhibited in unpredictable situations than those low in IU, the present study sought to elucidate the relationship between IU and decision-making by studying confidence and speed in making repeated decisions in high-risk scenarios with an immediate threat given limited but changing information. Seventy undergraduates high or low in IU completed a repeated decision-making task involving hypothetical risk scenarios and rated their confidence in their decisions, given first two options or then three options from which to select. Response times for each decision were recorded. Individuals high in IU became less confident in their decisions across blocks of decision-making trials, whereas individuals low in IU became more confident in their decisions. Response times did not significantly differ between high IU and low IU individuals. However, individuals high in IU tended to be less likely to change their decision when presented with new information and an additional response option than participants low in IU, although this trend fell just short of statistical significance. Implications for the role of IU in the maintenance of anxiety and depression are discussed.

つづく...





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