「右」の諸君、米国が、戦前、日本、ひいては東アジアに対して犯した犯罪と戦後日本がその占領下にあることに憤れ。「左」の諸君、米帝国主義への憤りを忘れたのか、その米帝の植民地となっている現状に甘んじ続けるのか。日本独立に向けて決起を!〜作成中

New York Timesの記事を読んで、「どんなに先延ばしにしても、来年にはイスラエルないし米国によるイラン核施設爆撃が行われることでしょう(コラム#3287)」という意見に至った道筋は?
 本日の記事で、改めて説明してみましょう。

 イスラエルと米国は、まだイランが核開発に向けての最終ステップに踏み出してはいないと認識しています。↓
 ・・・the uranium already enriched there would have to be reprocessed to a far higher degree of enrichment to create bomb materiel.・・・
 Israel and U.S. believe that Iran has not yet taken such a decision, and to do so it would have to expel the international inspectors that currently monitor its enrichment facility at Natanz.・・・

 しかし、イスラエルと米国は、(更には欧州の主要国も、)イランが(日本のように、)最終ステップにいつでも踏み出しうる能力を持つことは認めない、という立場です。↓
 The position adopted until now by the U.S. and its European allies and Israel is that Iran should not be permitted to develop even "breakout capacity" of the type maintained by, for example, Japan--i.e., a peaceful nuclear-energy infrastructure that could be quickly converted to bomb production should the government choose to weaponize. ・・・

 イランは、客観的に見て、このような最終ステップにいつでも踏み出しうる能力を持つことを目指しているところ、18日のワシントンでのイスラエルと米国の首脳会談で、オバマは、事実上イランとの交渉期限を今年一杯、と言明しました。↓
 Netanyahu emerged from Monday's White House meeting saying he and Obama saw "exactly eye to eye" on the Iran issue, and some media reports suggested that Obama had agreed to a deadline of the end of 2009 for his diplomatic efforts to succeed in persuading Iran to reverse course on its nuclear program. In fact, Obama was more nuanced in response to the Israelis' agitation for a time limit on Washington's outreach to Tehran, refusing to impose an "artificial deadline" but affirming that his patience was not unlimited, and that by year's end he would have a good idea whether Iran was making a "good-faith effort to resolve differences." ・・・
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1900...

 ですから、今年末までに、イランがウラン濃縮計画を破棄しない限り、残される手段は、(ロシア等がイランに対する効果的な経済制裁に同調する可能性がないだけに、)イラン核施設攻撃しかないのです。
(以上、http://blog.ohtan.net/archives/51370227.htmlより)



#3378(2009.7.6)

 米国の「了解」とサウディアラビアの空域提供の約束をとりつけた↓以上、イスラエルのイラン核施設攻撃は、いつ行われても不思議ではなくなりました。
 ・・・Appearing on ABC's current affairs programme This Week, host George Stephanopoulos asked Mr Biden whether the Israeli position was the right approach.
The vice-president replied: "Israel can determine for itself - it's a sovereign nation - what's in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else." ・・・
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8135414.stm
 ・・・<Further, the host> asked: “But just to be clear here, if the Israelis decide Iran is an existential threat, they have to take out the nuclear program, militarily the United States will not stand in the way?”
 And Mr. Biden replied: “Look, we cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do when they make a determination -- if they make a determination -- that they’re existentially threatened and their survival is threatened by another country.”・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/us/politics/06bi...
 ・・・The Sunday Times has reported that Saudi Arabia would allow Israel to use its airspace for such an attack. By doing this, Israel would eliminate the need to get American approval to fly over Iraq.・・・
 If Iran builds a nuclear weapon, ・・・<a> May poll by the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University suggested that nearly 1 in 4 Israelis would consider leaving the country・・・
http://features.csmonitor.com/globalnews/2009/07/0...



#3913(2010.3.28)

 the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institutionで昨年、イスラエルによるイラン核施設攻撃のシミュレーションが行われた。その結果が紹介されている。↓
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/weekinreview/28s...



#3937(2010.4.9)

 オバマが鳩山首相との会談を拒否したのに何で彼はそれでも訪米するのかねえ。
 これは、日本が米国の属国だからとか、普天間問題があるから、なんて次元を超えている。
 オバマがもはや鳩山を政治家として全く相手にしてないってことだ。
 そもそも、この国際首脳会議、北朝鮮やイランの核問題が主要テーマなんだぜ。↓
 ・・・"The <Israeli> prime minister has decided to cancel his trip to Washington to attend the nuclear conference next week, after learning that some countries including Egypt and Turkey plan to say Israel must sign the NPT," the Israeli official said. ・・・
 The summit will not focus on individual nations, but the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea -- and possible new U.N. sanctions against Tehran -- are expected to come up. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#4017(2010.5.19)

 常任理事国の間でイランへの新制裁案合意なる。
 この案が安保理で採択された場合、果たしてイスラエルがイラン核施設攻撃を思いとどまるかが今後の問題。↓
 ・・・A draft security council resolution was agreed early today by the five permanent members of the security council - the US, Britain, China, Russia and France. The resolution was sent to the other 10 members of the council this afternoon.
 The imposition of sanctions may help delay Israel's long-threatened air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.・・・
 The security council move came less than 24 hours after Brazil and Turkey announced their own deal with Iran, under which Tehran would ship out more than a tonne of enriched uranium in return for fuel rods for a nuclear research reactor. The US and Britain were cool about this deal, saying it did not go nearly far enough.・・・
 What will add to the Brazilian and Turkish anger is that their deal is similar to one that the US, France, Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, agreed with Tehran last October, from which Iran withdrew earlier this year. ・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/18/iran-u...
 ・・・The deal breaker, in Russia's and China's eyes, was Iran's insistence that it would carry on producing 20%-enriched uranium, ostensibly to create fuel for its medical research reactor.・・・
 Much is made of the fact that when the offer was originally framed, 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium represented the majority of the feedstock Iran had. Today, it represents less than half. In other words, Iran has enough feedstock to make a bomb, even if the fuel swap with Turkey goes ahead.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/1...



#4023(2010.5.22)

<υΒΒυ>(「たった一人の反乱」より)

 開戦?
http://www.debka.com/article/8794/

<太田>

 こりゃ面白い。
 確かに、イランを狙ったものとしか思えませんね。↓
 ・・・the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.・・・6,000 Marines and sailors aboard the Truman Strike Group・・・
 For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.(上掲)

 しかし、この話、米国の主要メディアが報じていないのが気になるなあ。
 それにしても、ここまでピュリッツアー賞受賞コラムニストに言われてるオバマ、かわいそうだよな。↓
 ・・・Given Obama's policies and principles, Turkey and Brazil are acting rationally. Why not give cover to Ahmadinejad and his nuclear ambitions? As the United States retreats in the face of Iran, China, Russia and Venezuela, why not hedge your bets? There's nothing to fear from Obama, and everything to gain by ingratiating yourself with America's rising adversaries. After all, they actually believe in helping one's friends and punishing one's enemies.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 言わしておいて、その陰で、実はイラン核施設の攻撃を着々と準備してたとすりゃ、オバマ、やっぱすげえってことになるんだけどね。



#4047(2010.6.3)

 昨今におけるイスラエルの諜報能力/作戦能力の低下が完膚無きまでに描かれている。↓
 ・・・In fact, Israel has faced the threat of protesters on ships -- and, for that matter, terrorists on boats -- many times before. It always dealt with them ruthlessly, often savagely. But it also did so covertly and with enough discretion to keep world opinion from focusing on what happened.
 During the first Palestinian intifada in the 1980s, the Israeli foreign intelligence service, Mossad, put on a full-court press to stop Yasir Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization from using boats for propaganda purposes or guerrilla attacks. Several people involved with such Palestinian operations in Greece and Cyprus simply blew up as they drove their cars. High-speed hydrofoils built in Italy mysteriously exploded before they could be sent to Lebanon.
 In 1988 the PLO tried to mount a major propaganda operation by chartering a Cypriot ferry called the Sol Phryne and renaming it the Awda, or "Return." The idea was to fill it with Palestinian deportees and sail to Israel in a conscious echo of the voyage of the famous Exodus in 1947, on which thousands of Holocaust survivors were stopped and turned away by the British rulers then in charge of the region.
 Shortly before the voyage of the Awda was due to begin, three Palestinians reportedly involved with chartering it got blown up in Limassol, Cyprus, and the following night a limpet mine attached to the ship below the waterline blasted a large hole in its hull as it sat in the harbor. The Awda never left Limassol.・・・
 More recently, the Israelis have tracked and seized ships full of Iranian-supplied arms and munitions with very little bloodshed and very little protest.
But this time around, the operation looks like it was botched from start to finish, once again suggesting that the Israeli military and intelligence services, including the vaunted special-operations forces, are shadows of their old selves. Weak intelligence and poor planning seem to have marked many of Israel's recent operations -- from the Lebanon war in 2006 (when the once awesome forces of Israel's Army were fought to a standstill by the irregulars from Hizbullah); to the botched and bloody effort, during the Gaza war at the beginning of 2009, to eliminate Hamas; to the embarrassingly high-profile Dubai assassination of a Hamas leader this winter. Where Israel was once fleet, subtle, and omnipotent, it now seems clumsy and noisy.・・・
 Actually, I do feel sorry for an utterly inadequate force sent to board a ship at night in international waters, presumably with the idea of carrying out a surprise attack that would neutralize resistance before it could begin. But this is 2010: the protesters, who saw the whole thing coming, were even online with live satellite feeds for their news cameras. Entebbe, this ain't.・・・
 After the latest in a string of fiascoes, who would be at greater risk if Netanyahu really did decide to go to war with Iran? Israel's enemies? Or its friends?
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/01/low-blows-on-th...

 ↑確かに、一番心配されるのは、イランの核施設攻撃をイスラエルが敢行した場合、政治的軍事的にひどいドジをやらかすんじゃないかという点だ。
 ただし、比較的最近、イスラエルが成功した事例もある、ということを下掲の記事は思いださせてくれる。↓
 ・・・there have been many successful operations too. Think about what was regarded as a Syrian nuclear reactor in the making [destroyed by Israel in 2007].・・・
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-f...



#4135(2010.7.17)

 米国がラテンアメリカとうまくいってないって話を(コラム#4132で)したばかりだが、は欧州ともうまくいっていない。↓
 ・・・Speaking in Strasbourg, France, deep in the subsidized heartlands of the European Union in April last year, Obama deplored a growing mutual antipathy, bordering on open hostility, between Europe and America. Europeans were too often guilty of an "insidious" anti-Americanism while Americans had at times "shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive" of Europe's achievements. ・・・
 ・・・the widespread American stereotype of Europeans as godless wimps・・・"They [the Europeans] are weak, petulant, hypocritical, disunited, duplicitous, sometimes anti-Semitic and often anti-American appeasers," ・・・
 Rising secularism and spreading, ultraliberal social attitudes in Europe contrast ever more sharply with a perceived new American Puritanism. ・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/07/15/v...

 中共とはもちろんうまくいっていない。
 (久しぶり日経のできのよい記事だ。)↓
 ・・・09年11月17日、オバマ大統領と胡錦濤・中国国家主席は首脳会談を終えた後、共同声明を発表した。・・・
  共同宣言の中の「相互の戦略的信頼の構築と深化」という項目の中に以下のような一文がある。
The two countries reiterated that the fundamental principle of respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is at the core of the three U.S.-China joint communiques which guide U.S.-China relations.

 ここで中国が固執したのは「一つの中国」などを認めた1972年の米中上海コミュニケなど「3つのコミュニケの中核(Core)という表現」(元米政府高官)である。
 ここで言う「3つの(米中)コミュニケ」とは米中間で72年、79年、そして82年にそれぞれ交わされた外交文書のことを指す。第1のコミュニケは1972年に当時のニクソン米大統領が訪中、毛沢東主席らと会談したことを受けて発表されたものだ。焦点となった台湾問題については「米国は台湾海峡の両側のすべての中国人が、中国は一つであり台湾は中国の一部分であるとみなしているとの認識に至った」と記している。
 次いで発表された79年のコミュニケは米中国交樹立に合わせた両国の共同文書とされている。さらに82年8月17日に発表した第3のコミュニケでは米国による台湾への武器供与問題を取り扱い、上海コミュニケと国交樹立コミュニケの意義を再確認した上で、米国の台湾への武器売却問題を縮小する方針を盛り込んでいる。
 国交樹立30周年という節目の年に訪中したオバマに対して、中国はかつてその思惑通りに「日本素通り」の訪中を果たし、米中接近を演出したクリントン政権の再来を期待していた。だから江沢民・国家主席が訪米、当時のクリントン米大統領と会談した97年以来、12年ぶりとなる共同声明にはかなりの期待を抱いていた、と米中交渉に詳しい米国務省OBは解説する。
 特に中国が着目したのが、この3つのコミュニケの精神の「中核」という表現だった。この言葉の意味を中国は「オバマ政権による台湾問題への非介入の確約」(元米政府高官)と解釈した。クリントン訪中時と同じく、オバマ政権から台湾問題について「戦略的譲歩」を引き出したと受け止めたのである。にもかかわらず、オバマ政権は年明け以降、台湾への大型武器販売(1月)、チベットの人権指導者、ダライ・ラマとオバマの対話(3月)などを相次いで実行。当然、これに中国側は「約束と違うではないか」と激しく反発した。・・・
 台湾海峡を中心として、中国人民解放軍が「進入禁止区域(ADZ)」設置を公言し、6月に予定していたゲーツ米国防長官の訪中を一方的に取りやめるなど事態は悪化の一途をたどっている。・・・
http://www.nikkei.com/biz/focus/article/g=96958A9C... 

 そして米国は、防衛費を減らし続け、頑強に集団的自衛権行使を拒み続ける日本・・要するに「独立」を拒否し続ける日本・・とも全然うまくいっていない。
 (見事な論考だ。)↓
 ・・・For the foreseeable future, no government will be in a position to advance major new initiatives, especially those pertaining to Japan’s security policy. And the sad reality is that even if the DPJ had won a convincing victory, Washington’s interest in a more active security partnership-in which Japan would spend more on its armed forces, participate more in overseas operations, and perhaps even revise or reinterpret its Constitution to permit self-defense within the alliance-would continue to face serious obstacles.
 As the government’s fiscal situation worsens, it becomes less and less likely that Tokyo will take up an ambitious security policy agenda. Fixing the government’s finances is a key step to addressing the other pocketbook issues with which voters are concerned. It is unlikely that a government implementing controversial budget cuts and tax increases would also take up the contentious question of how it should contribute to the defense of Japan and security in East and Central Asia. Its fear would be that the public would punish leaders perceived as focused on problems far from Japanese shores as it implements policies that hurt Japanese households. Moreover, for a cash-strapped government, the status quo, in which Japan limits its defense spending while subsidizing U.S. bases in Japan, continues to suit Japan’s interests. The logic of the Yoshida doctrine-which was formulated during the early postwar period, and which called for low defense spending combined with an alliance founded on U.S. bases in Japan--remains relevant today: Japanese leaders once saw the doctrine as the key to postwar economic development, and now the same policies provide resources for shoring up Japan’s social safety net and halting economic decline.
 The irony, then, is that despite the DPJ’s desire for a more equal relationship with the United States, the political and economic logic of austerity suggests that Japan will likely grow even more dependent on the U.S. for its security, with the difference being that the relationship will be more fragile.・・・
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/16/a-fragile-allia...

 我々が心しなければならないのは、米国が、まさに最初の方↑で米国から批判されている欧州のような内向的な存在になってしまうことが、早晩避けられないであろうことだ。
 相対的に国力が落ちた米国一国だけが自由民主主義陣営の中で気を吐き続けるなんてもう限界だということ。
 そもそも、いいかげん、お山の大将役を免じてやんなきゃいけないのさ。
 米国は、とにかくできが悪いんだから・・。

 なお、米国がうまくやっているのはイスラエルとの関係ぐらいだとよ。↓
 ・・・While public attention has focused on the fierce diplomatic disputes between Israel and the United States over settlement expansion in Palestinian territories, security and military ties between the two nations have grown ever closer during the Obama administration. ・・・
  ・・・an exchange of military and intelligence expertise that U.S. officials say is unique in the world. ・・・
 ・・・annual U.S. military assistance to Israel has been boosted from $2.5 billion in 2009 to $3 billion in 2011, meaning that almost a quarter of Israel's actual defense expenditures comes from the United States・・・
 Unlike most other countries, which are required to use U.S. military assistance to buy U.S. weapons and technology, Israel is permitted to use 26 percent of the funds for the development and production of its own weapons. ・・・
 The United States also maintains stockpiles of ammunition, spare parts, communication gear and other military items in Israel, which the Jewish state can draw on if it runs short during a war. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 何度でも言う。
 米・イスラエルによるイラン核施設攻撃が決行されるのは間近だ。
 その上で、今年米軍がイラクから撤退し、来年にはアフガニスタンから撤退を始める。
 それを契機に、米国、世界中から米軍を引き揚げ始めるかもよ。



#4141(2010.7.20)

 なんでいまだにイスラエルが対イラン攻撃をしないのかワケが分からん、とぼやいてるに等しいコラムが載ってました。↓
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487037...



#4163(2010.7.31)

 1週間近く前の話だけど、こんな米元高官までこんなこと言い出すようじゃ、いよいよ対イラン核施設攻撃近し、て感じだね。↓
 ・・・Former NSA and CIA director Michael Hayden suggested on Sunday that over time・・・ a military strike <against Iran> is looking increasingly favorable compared to the alternatives. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#4177(2010.8.7)

 米有力紙の一つが、イスラエルのイラン核施設攻撃を米中間選挙直前、と予想しました。↓
 ・・・Perhaps the US knows something about Israel’s intentions toward striking Iran・・・. A prime opportunity for Israel to strike Iran would be this fall, just before the US elections when politicians are most prone to support Israel despite its actions.・・・
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Editorial-Boar...



#4196(2010.8.16) イスラエルのイラン攻撃論争(その1)
#4198(2010.8.17) イスラエルのイラン攻撃論争(その2)
#4200(2010.8.18) イスラエルのイラン攻撃論争(その3)
#4202(2010.8.19) イスラエルのイラン攻撃論争(その4)
#4204(2010.8.20) イスラエルのイラン攻撃論争(その5)
#4228(2010.9.1) イスラエルのイラン攻撃論争(その6)



#4229(2010.9.2)

 イランの脅威が高まっているからこそ、パレスティナ和平が成る可能性もまた高まっている。↓
 ・・・As the clock ticks down on predominantly Shiite Iran's nuclear program, though, it becomes more urgent for Israel and its Arab neighbors to achieve peace and face together the shared threat to their security and political stability.
 The dynamic brings an "enemy of my enemy" calculation to this round of talks, binding the Jewish state's security interests to those of its Sunni Arab neighbors more tightly than in the past.
 The negotiations' chaperones in Jordan and Egypt are also more threatened by Iran, through its proxies and widening political influence, than they were 20 months ago, giving their leaders a greater incentive to keep Israelis and Palestinians at the table until a deal is reached. ・・・
 Netanyahu will need Obama's support if he decides to undertake a military strike against Iran, either before or after he carries it out. His willingness to stick with peace talks, which Obama has called a priority, would win him goodwill in what has so far been a stormy relationship between the two men.
 Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas also has reason to fear Iran, which has crossed sectarian lines to support Hamas, the armed Islamist group, with money and military training. Abbas's secular Fatah movement fought a virtual civil war with Hamas, which now runs the Gaza Strip, over several months in 2007. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#4269(2010.9.22)

 これ、マジ、イスラエルがくさいな。
 なかなか空爆に踏み切らないのは、このマルウェア作戦を決行し、その効果を見極めようとしているためかもね。↓

 ・・・史上最強のマルウェアによって、イランのBushehr核施設が攻撃を仕掛けられ、稼働不可能になっている可能性があるとよ。犯人はイスラエルか米国か(?)だってさ。↓
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0921/Stuxnet-mal...




#4275(2010.9.25)

 例のマルウェア(コラム#4269)、イスラエル発の疑いが濃厚に。↓
 ・・・The "Stuxnet" computer worm, which has been described as one of the "most refined pieces of malware ever discovered", has been most active in Iran, says the security company Symantec -- leading some experts to conjecture that the likely target of the virus is the controversial Bushehr nuclear power plant, and that it was created by Israeli hackers.・・・
 Latest figures, from August, show 60% of computers infected by Stuxnet are located in Iran -- dramatically up from July, when it accounted for less than 25% of infections, research by Symantec shows, with the graph below (from 4 August) showing the prevalence in other countries by comparison. The company estimates that the group building Stuxnet would have been well-funded, comprising between five and 10 people, and that it would have taken six months to prepare.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/sep/24/s...



#4287(2010.10.1)

 (コラム#4228に関し)その後、イスラエルがイランの核施設にマルウェア攻撃をかけてる可能性が取りざたされるようになった(コラム#4269)わけだけど、日本政府にとっちゃ、SFの世界の話だろうな。
 (以上、ツイッターより)

 イラン、事実上、マルウェア攻撃のために、原子炉の稼働が遅れたことを認めたな。↓
 The head of Iran's atomic agency says power generation from its first nuclear plant will probably begin in January - two months later than announced. ・・・
 "We implemented measures to protect our computers last year, but during the past two months, these [cyber attack] activities increased dramatically," Mr Salehi said on state radio.
 "Fortunately, we were able to neutralise the enemy's objective without involving the media. The fact these activities are continuing smoothly is evidence of this," he added.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-114451...

 マルウェア攻撃イスラエル主犯説の状況証拠は次のとおりだ。↓
 ・・・Intelligence is the single largest section of <Israel'>s military and the unit devoted to signal, electronic and computer network intelligence, known as Unit 8200, is the largest group within intelligence. ・・・
<→1.イスラエルにおける巨大な電子諜報専門機関の存在(太田)>
 Meir Dagan, head of Mossad, had his term extended last year partly because he was said to be involved in important projects.
<2.重要任務に携わっているとしての昨年のモサドの長官の任期延長(太田)>
・・・in the past year Israeli estimates of when Iran will have a nuclear weapon had been extended to 2014.
 ・・・They seem to know something, that they have more time than originally thought,・・・
<→3.イスラエルが昨年イランの核能力保持は2014年、と従前より後ろ倒し予想を発表(太田)>
 Several of the teams of computer security researchers who have been dissecting the software found a text string that suggests that the attackers named their project Myrtus. ・・・
 Myrtus is an allusion to the Hebrew word for Esther. The Book of Esther tells the story of a Persian plot against the Jews, who attacked their enemies pre-emptively.・・・
 ・・・Queen Esther’s original name in Hebrew was Hadassah, which is similar to the Hebrew word for myrtle. ・・・
<→4.マルウェアから読み取れるマルウェア計画の名称がイスラエル主犯説を自ら示唆している?(太田)>
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/world/middleeast...



#4311(2010.10.13)

 イランのソフトウェア事情、こんな体たらくだとすると、当分の間、イスラエルや米国が核施設の爆撃をするまでもなさそうだな。↓
 ・・・Israel reportedly hacked Syrian air defenses in the course of the September 2007 attack on a nuclear reactor site.・・・
 A country that steals its software cannot build its own, even if the sort of individual who excels at software development wanted to live in Iran. Most of those who can, leave. A 2002 study reported that four out of five Iranians who received rewards in international science competitions subsequently left Iran・・・
 Iran had the worst brain drain of 90 countries surveyed.
 Iran has so few skilled programmers that it could be that the security services do not have the capacity to distinguish sabotage from incompetence. ・・・
 Russia did not have the software engineers to design the required control software, and sent spies to steal it from a Canadian firm. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) learned of Russia's efforts and arranged for the Russians to steal doctored software. A pumping station exploded with a force equivalent to three kilotons of TNT. ・・・
<→この話は、以前にこのコラムで取り上げたことがある。(太田)>
 Russia managed to "steal" American spy cameras that had been doctored by the CIA. They were turned over to engineers at Zeiss, East Germany's great optics firm, but they never quite worked properly. ・・・
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LJ13Ak01....



#4379(2010.11.16)

 恐らくは米国またはイスラエル・・そして恐らくはイスラエル・・によるイラン核施設に対するマルウェア攻撃は、成功し、ウラン濃縮のための遠心分離装置の一部、可能性としては全部、が破壊されたってことじゃないかな。
 当分の間、イラン核施設に対する物理的攻撃は、その必要がないので、行われないのでは?↓
 ・・・a Stuxnet researcher at Symantec wrote that the software firm had concluded that the worm targeted industrial systems with high frequency "converter drives" from two specific vendors, including one in Iran.
 Independently, Langner Communications of Germany, a systems security firm, also announced over the weekend that another part of the worm's attack code was configured in a way to target a control system for steam turbines used in power plants, such as those installed at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. Langner also confirmed that the worm appeared to attack key components of centrifuges. ・・・
 ・・・the targeted frequency range, from 807 megahertz to 1210 megahertz, "is consistent with the operational frequencies of gas centrifuges used for uranium enrichment." ・・・
 Stuxnet <was> likely aimed to destroy Iran's gas centrifuges, which could produce enriched uranium for both nuclear fuel and nuclear bombs.・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#4381(2010.11.17)

 昨日の記事よりももっと詳しい、マルウェア攻撃についての記事が出てた。
 イランのナタンツのウラン濃縮施設は破壊されてしまったと考えていいんじゃないかな。↓
 ・・・After cleverly gaining access to computer systems using an array of devious "exploits," Stuxnet searches for and infects only a specific Siemens-made programmable logic controller (PLC) performing specific functions・・・. Then ・・・it hunts for identification numbers unique to a special kind of "frequency converter drive" made by just two firms in the world: one headquartered in Finland, the other in Tehran.
 Frequency converter drives are a kind of power supply that can change the frequency of its output to control the speed of a motor. The drive responds to a PLC's computer commands and is used for industrial control in factory settings worldwide. ・・・
 Once Stuxnet has locked its sights on the target, it alternately brings the centrifuge process to either a grinding slowdown or an explosive surge -- by sabotaging the centrifuge refining process. It tells the commandeered PLC to force the frequency converter drive to do something it's not ever supposed to do: Switch back and forth from high speed to low speed at intervals punctuated by long period of normal operation. It also occasionally pushes the centrifuge to far exceed its maximum speed.・・・
 Normal operating frequency of the special drive is supposed to be between 807 and 1210 Hz -- the higher the hertz, the higher the speed. One hertz means that a cycle is repeated once per second.
 Stuxnet "sabotages the system by slowing down or speeding up the motor to different rates at different times," including sending it up to 1410 Hz, well beyond its intended maximum speed. Such wide swings would probably destroy the centrifuge -- or at least wreck its ability to produce refined uranium fuel・・・.
 One reasonable goal for the attack could be to destroy the centrifuge rotor by vibration, which causes the centrifuge to explode as well as simply degrading the output subtly over time・・・
 The Natanz nuclear centrifuge fuel-refining plant may have been hit first by Stuxnet in mid-2009・・・
 International Atomic Energy Agency found a sudden drop in the number of working centrifuges at the Natanz site・・・
 ・・・the victim, having no clue of being under a cyber attack, will replace broken centrifuges by new ones -- until ending in frustration. It’s like a Chinese water torture.・・・
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/1116/How-Stuxnet...



#4387(2010.11.20)

 例のマルウェア、ナタンツのウラン濃縮施設だけじゃなく、まだ稼働前のブシェールの原子炉の破壊も狙ったもんだったとさ。イスラエル(米国?)、これにも成功したのかなあ? ↓
 ・・・The malicious program, known as Stuxnet, is designed to disable both Iranian centrifuges used to enrich uranium and steam turbines at the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is scheduled to begin operation next year・・・
 ・・・two different attack modules that are designed to run on different industrial controllers made by Siemens, the German industrial equipment maker. ・・・
 The second code module -- aimed at the nuclear power plant -- was written with remarkable sophistication, he said. The worm moves from personal computers to Siemens computers that control industrial processes. It then inserts fake data, fooling the computers into thinking that the system is running normally while the sabotage of the frequency converters is taking place. “It is obvious that several years of preparation went into the design of this attack,”・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/20/world/middleeast...



#4395(2010.11.24)

 IAEAが、(例のマルウエアによる?)イランのウラン濃縮施設の稼働停止を確認した。↓
 Atomic inspectors reported Tuesday that Iran mysteriously stopped feeding uranium into thousands of centrifuges at its main enrichment plant this month, and independent experts suggested that the computer worm suspected of being aimed at Iran’s nuclear program had caused the spinning machines to break down. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/world/middleeast...



#4409(2010.12.1)

 対イラン、マルウェア攻撃と要人暗殺。
 どっちもイスラエルが犯人くさいな。
 それにしても、相変わらずイスラエルすごいねえ。↓
 The Iranian nuclear expert assassinated in Tehran on Monday was the top scientist and senior manager of Iran's nuclear effort. Majid Shahriari was killed when an explosive charge placed in his car was detonated by remote control after he climbed into the vehicle・・・
 The assassination carried the signature of Israel's Mossad, which has carried out similar operations on foreign soil over the decades. ・・・
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2033...



#4417(2010.12.5)

 イランの原子力科学者の暗殺もイラン核施設に対するマルウェア攻撃も、どちらもイスラエルのモサドの仕業の可能性が極めて高いとよ。↓
 ・・・<先般の原子力科学者の暗殺> had the hallmark of well-practised professionals. The explosives were shaped to focus the blast and fire a hail of projectiles into the car at an individual target, with minimal "collateral damage". The targets were obviously carefully chosen and the attack would have required weeks of surveillance.・・・
 ・・・the Mossad is known for such exploits. It is widely believed to have killed scientists working on Iraq's nuclear programme in the 1980s.・・・
 Like most computer viruses and worms, Stuxnet does not bear fingerprints, but a western military source recently told the Observer that it was an Israeli creation.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/05/iran-n...



#4471(2011.1.1)

 2日ほど遅れたが、イスラエル当局による、イラン核計画妨害作戦の成功宣言をお送りしておこう。↓
 ・・・Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon said <Iran's> programme・・・to build nuclear weapons・・・had faced "a number of technological challenges and difficulties".
"These difficulties have postponed the timetable," he told Israeli radio.
 "So we can't talk about a point of no return. Iran does not have the ability to create nuclear weapons by itself at the moment."・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-120904... 



#4501(2011.1.16)

 イランの核開発計画を一頓挫させた例のマルウェア攻撃、米・イスラエル・独・英の連繋作戦だった可能性が大だとよ。
 日本は様々な意味で埒外だとしても、蚊帳の外のフランスてんじゃ、フランス、傷ついてるんじゃないか?
 ところで、引用しなかったけど、このマルウェア、ウラン濃縮システムを破壊するだけじゃなく、破壊している間も、同システムが正常に作動しているようあざむくんだってさ。
 スゴイねー。
・・・the covert race to create Stuxnet was a joint project between the Americans and the Israelis, with some help, knowing or unknowing, from the Germans and the British. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/world/middleeast...



#4505(2011.1.18)

 イスラエルの諜報機関モサドがイランの核計画を頓挫させるために行って来た諸作戦が詳細に説明されている。↓
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,7...



#4563(2011.2.16)

 イランの核施設へのマルウェア攻撃、あんまし打撃を与えられなかったけれど、今後のことはまだ分からないとさ。↓
 ・・・While・・・Stuxnet・・・has delayed the Iranian centrifuge program at the Natanz plant in 2010 and contributed to slowing its expansion, it did not stop it or even delay the continued buildup of low-enriched uranium・・・
 But the ISIS and Symantec reports noted that parts of the malware's operating code appeared to be unfinished, and Stuxnet has been updated with new instructions at least once since its release. 
 IAEA inspectors were unable to determine whether Iran's efforts to erase the worm from its equipment had succeeded, raising the possibility that subsequent attacks could occur. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#5059(2011.10.18)

 (核科学者が次々に「暗殺」されたこともあり、)マルウェアによる攻撃以来、イランの核計画の進捗は思わしくないみたいだねえ。↓
 Iran’s nuclear program, which stumbled badly after a reported cyber attack last year, appears beset by poorly performing equipment, shortages of parts and other woes as global sanctions exert a mounting toll,・・・
 Four Iranian scientists have been killed by unidentified assailants since 2007, and a fifth narrowly escaped death in an attempted car-bombing.・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-secur...



#5103(2011.11.9)

 イスラエルのバラク国防相(元首相)が、仮にイスラエルが対イラン攻撃をしたとして、それに対してイランが反撃してきたところで、イスラエル人は500人は死なない、安心して、と発言。
 私がかねてから指摘しているところの、フツーの国家の政治家の安全保障感覚とはこんなものだ。↓
 ・・・Barak dismissed concerns raised in Israel in recent days that military action against Iran could lead to heavy casualties in an Iranian counterstrike or in missile attacks by the Iranian-backed militant groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
 “Let’s assume we get to war against our will,” Barak said. “There will not be 100,000 dead, not 10,000 dead and not 1,000 dead. And Israel will not be destroyed. There’s no way today to prevent certain damage. It’s not pleasant on the home front . . . [but] if everyone just goes into their homes, there will not be 500 dead, either. And I don’t belittle a single fatality.”・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/ba...



#5231(2012.1.12)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 イランで、新たに核科学者が爆殺された。一昨年の2人(このほか1人が負傷)に次いで3人目だ。
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-165015...
 イラン政府が主張しているように、米国からイスラエルの諜報機関の仕業である可能性が高い。
 それにしても、諜報機関をいまだに持っていない我が属国日本!

<太田>

 マルウェア攻撃や軍事基地爆破に加えて核科学者爆殺と来たもんだ。ようやるよ。↓
 ・・・It comes on top of a sophisticated cyber sabotage programme and two mysterious explosions at Iranian military bases, one of which in November killed the general known as 'the godfather' of Iran's ballistic missile programme.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-165131...

 テヘランでのこれまでの4つの爆殺事件(未遂一件を含む)の位置関係が分かる地図がついてるよ。↓
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-165193...

 今回の爆殺事件の直前、イスラエル軍トップが議会証言でイミシンな証言をしているところを見ると、やっぱ、米国じゃなくってイスラエルの所業っぽいね。↓
 ・・・On Tuesday, the head of the Israeli Defence Force, Lieutenant General Benny Gantz was quoted as telling a parliamentary panel that 2012 would be a "critical year" for Iran in which it would be subject to "unnatural" events.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-glob...



#5235(2012.1.14)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 イランでの核科学者爆殺犯について、米国説、イスラエル説(本命)、イラン反体制派説、アラブの国説の4つが紹介されている。
 この中で最も可能性が乏しいのが米国説・・戦争状態にない国でのあのやり口は考えにくい、そもそもそんな能力はない・・だとさ。
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/11/world/meast/iran...



#5263(2012.1.27)

 イスラエル関係当局者からの詳細な取材に基づき、今年中にイスラエルの対イラン核施設攻撃あり、との結論を出してるコラムだ。↓
・・・
1. Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran’s nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project? And can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?
2. Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack?
3. Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran’s nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack?
 For the first time since the Iranian nuclear threat emerged in the mid-1990s, at least some of Israel’s most powerful leaders believe that the response to all of these questions is yes.・・・
 After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-is...



#5293(2012.2.11)

 米国防長官が、イスラエルによる4月〜6月中のイラン攻撃を予想しちゃってたのね。↓
 ・・・U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta <predicted> that Israel will attack Iran and its nuclear complex "in April, May or June.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/10/t...



#5299(2012.2.14)

 イランがイスラエル大使館関係者を襲撃しているくさいが、一人も殺せていないところが、イランの無能さの表れだ。↓
 ・・・In Delhi, witnesses said they saw assailants on motorcycles attaching a device to a car when it stopped at a traffic light. In the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, an Israeli embassy driver discovered a device planted on the undercarriage of his car. The modus operandi in both incidents mirrored the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist in Tehran last month, which Iran claimed was carried out by agents for Israeli intelligence.・・・
 Within hours of Monday's apparently co-ordinated attacks in the Indian and Georgian capitals, Netanyahu declared: "The elements behind these attacks were Iran and its protege, Hezbollah."
Tehran, he added, was "the largest terror exporter in the world" and was also responsible for recent attempted assaults on Israeli targets in Azerbaijan and Thailand. Israel, he said, would "act with a strong hand".・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/13/binyam...
 <よりにもよって、イランの最大の友好国のインドで上記襲撃事件を引き起こすなど、ホントにイランが下手人なら自殺行為だって言われてるぞ。↓>
 ・・・Now Tehran is accused of launching an equally audacious operation: attempting to kill an Israeli diplomat in the capital of a country that is one of the few remaining purchasers of its oil, and which has been resisting Western pressure for sanctions.・・・
 Remarkably, the attack took place within a few hundred meters of the offices of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who just last week was resisting pressure from the United States to cut back on Indian purchases of Iranian oil. As Europe had applied an embargo on oil purchases, and even China has cut back, India has recently become Iran’s largest customer. It has even reportedly worked out barter arrangements to pay for continuing oil deliveries so that its banks are not exposed to U.S. sanctions.・・・
 it could also endanger a vital economic lifeline for Tehran. That Iran would risk a strike in such a sensitive place suggests that its leaders are panicked. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/...



#5301(2012.2.15)

 タイのバンコックで、アジトで爆弾が爆発したことを契機に、そのアジトにいたイラン人3人組中2人が逮捕された。逮捕されるまでに爆弾2個を彼らは爆発させ、うち1人は自分の足を吹き飛ばしてしまった。
 彼らが狙っていたのがイスラエル関係者であったのかどうかは不明。↓
 <連中の手口が余りにも稚拙であるとして呆れられている。↓>
 ・・・the attacks in India, Georgia and now Thailand have all been highly amateurish, and lack the sophistication that would normally be expected from an operation executed by either Hezbollah or Iran's own external operations wing, the Quds Force."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/14/iran-b...



#5303(2012.2.16)

 イスラエル政府は、インド、グルジア、タイでの爆破ないし爆破未遂事件の爆弾のタイプは、基本的に同じである、だから犯人はイランないしイランの息のかかったテロリストの可能性が高いと言明した。↓
 Israeli officials said Wednesday that magnetic explosive devices found after a series of explosions in Bangkok on Tuesday were similar to bombs used a day earlier to target Israeli diplomats in New Delhi and in Tbilisi, Georgia.・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/israel-saystha...



#5307(2012.2.18)

 米国政府内で、対イラン攻撃不可避論が急速に高まりつつあるとよ。↓
 Officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear programme, and believe that the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/17/us-off...



#5347(2012.3.9)

 ガザ地区に蟠踞するハマス(スンニ派)は、イスラエルがイラン攻撃をして、両国間に戦争が勃発しても、イランに加担することはない、と言明した。↓
 Leaders of the Palestinian Islamist movement, Hamas, say they will not help Iran militarily in any conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic.・・・
 <彼らが、シーア派のイランの援助をあてにする必要がなくなったこともその背景にあるようだ。↓>
 <Qatar> has recently been pushing for a reconciliation deal between Hamas and its long-time rival faction, Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority and is in power in the West Bank.
 <例えば、スンニ派のカタールが既にしこたまハマスに対する援助をしてるという。↓>
 Although the figures have not been confirmed, Mr Abdul Karim claims Qatar offered up to $2bn (£1.27bn) in aid to Hamas and the PA in order to try and push the deal through.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-172850...



#5357(2012.3.14)

 このところの、ガザ地区からのミサイルのイスラエルへの発射とそれに対するイスラエルの報復爆撃の背景が説明されている。
 要するに、ハマスのシリア離れを不快に思っているイランが、ハマス以外のガザの過激派にミサイル発射をやらせてハマスを困らせるとともに、石油価格高騰を狙っているというわけ。↓
 ・・・While Hamas has not ruptured its relations with Tehran in the same manner that it abandoned Damascus, Iranian leaders are clearly irked that the Palestinian faction has refused to stand by Assad, a key strategic figure for Tehran in the region.
 Whereas Iran once respected Hamas's wishes and helped maintain a modicum of calm inside Gaza, the gloves are now off. Iran is using its smaller and less-expensive proxies, the PRC and PIJ, to create unrest on Hamas's turf.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/13/i...



#5387(2012.3.29)

 イスラエルは、ならず者国家のアゼルバイジャンとつるんでるみたいだね。
 よって、イスラエルの対イラン攻撃は、これまで想定されてきたよりもはるかに容易に実行できるってわけ。↓
 ・・・the "submerged" aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance -- the security cooperation between the two countries -- is heightening the risks of an Israeli strike on Iran.・・・
 <イスラエル、アゼルバイジャンの飛行場を一つ買ったらしいってさ。↓>
 Israel has recently been granted access to airbases on Iran's northern border.<i.e. t>he Israelis have bought an airfield・・・
 The Azeri military has four abandoned, Soviet-era airfields that would potentially be available to the Israelis, as well as four airbases for their own aircraft・・・
 Using airbases in Azerbaijan would ensure that Israel would not have to rely on its modest fleet of air refuelers or on its refueling expertise, which <is> pretty minimal.・・・They're just not very good at it.・・・
 <空中給油やらなくても対イラン攻撃ができるし、爆弾搭載量も増やせる。↓>
 ・・・the more distance a fighter-bomber is required to travel, the more fuel it will need and the fewer weapons it can carry. Shortening the distance adds firepower, and enhances the chances for a successful strike.・・・
 <リスキーだが、イスラエルとの経済(石油)・軍事協力はアゼルバイジャンにとってはオイシイ話。↓>
 Azerbaijan clearly profits from its deepening relationship with Israel. The Jewish state is the second largest customer for Azeri oil -shipped through the Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan pipeline -- and its military trade allows Azerbaijan to upgrade its military after the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE) slapped it with an arms embargo after its six-year undeclared war with Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Finally, modernizing the Azeri military sends a clear signal to Iran that interference in Azerbaijan could be costly.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/28/i... 



#5399(2012.4.4)

 バラク国防相は、昨年11月に対イラン攻撃をやって、それにイランが反撃しても、500人も死者は出ない、と言明した(コラム#5103)が、改めて予想死者数がイスラエル政府から発表された。↓
 Israeli security officials have estimated the number of casualties in Israel as a result of a military conflict with Iran would be fewer than 300.
An assessment presented to the security cabinet last weekend anticipates three weeks of rocket and missile attacks from Lebanon and Syria, as well as probably Iran and -- to a limited extent -- Gaza・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran-blog/2012/apr...



#5443(2012.4.26)

 イスラエル軍のトップが、イランは核兵器保有には踏み切らないだろうと語り、イランの指導層は理性的な人々であるとも語った。
 イスラエルの政治家達、就中首相と国防相の見解と真っ向から食い違う軍首脳の発言は異例だ。
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-178377...



#5499(2012.5.24)

 イスラエルで、軍関係者や諜報関係者が対イラン攻撃反対を唱えているが、イラクの原子炉を攻撃・破壊した1978年の先例に照らしても、同国の政治家は「専門家」の意見など歯牙にもかけないってさ。だから、対イラン攻撃はやるんじゃないかってわけ。↓
 ・・・In early 1978, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin convened several senior ministers and security officials to brief them on Iraq's rapidly advancing nuclear weapons program. At the time, this group was divided over using force to halt Iraq's nuclear drive: Deputy Prime Minister (and former IDF chief of staff) Yigael Yadin, Defense Minister (and IDF deputy chief of staff during the 1967 war) Ezer Weizman, Mossad chief Yitzhak Hofi, and Military Intelligence chief Shlomo Gazit all opposed a strike. Yet two years later, on October 28, 1980, a vote in the full Israeli cabinet authorized a strike on Iraq's main nuclear reactor-- dubbed Osirak. Israeli F-16s carried out the strike on June 7, 1981, successfully destroying the reactor.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/23/c...



#5513(2012.6.3)

 マルウェアによるイラン核施設攻撃は、米・イスラエル共同作戦であったとNYタイムスが報じたが、それをWSJも後追い補充報道をしていた。↓
 ・・・ the cybersabotage project known as Stuxnet, which was developed by the Central Intelligence Agency in conjunction with Idaho National Laboratory, the Israeli government, and other U.S. agencies, according to people familiar with the efforts.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023048...



#5593(2012.7.12)

 着々と対イラン抑止態勢を整備する米国。↓
 <海上基地。↓>
 Floating Base Steps Up U.S. Presence in the Persian Gulf・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/world/middleeast...
 <対機雷水中ドローン。↓>
 The Navy is rushing tiny underwater drones to the Persian Gulf to help find and destroy sea mines as part of an American military buildup aimed at stopping Iran from closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz in the event of a crisis, U.S. officials said.
 Only 88 pounds and 4 feet long, the unmanned, remotely guided submersibles carry a TV camera, homing sonar and an explosive charge for what amounts to a kamikaze mission: When it detects a mine, the undersea craft obliterates itself as well as the mine.
 <これ、ドイツ製なんだね。↓>
 The Navy bought dozens of the little-known German-made devices, known as the SeaFox, in February・・・
 <日本の掃海部隊にも来て欲しかったわけだ。↓>
 Along with the new submersibles, the Pentagon recently added four minesweeping ships, bringing the total in the area to eight, and four MH-53 minesweeping helicopters. ・・・
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-f...



#5657(2012.8.13)

 いよいよ、イスラエルによる対イラン攻撃近し!↓
 The threat from Iran dwarfs all other challenges the Jewish state faces, Israel’s prime minister declared Sunday, as high-level hints of a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s suspect nuclear program mounted.・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/am...



#5663(2012.8.16)

 イスラエル政府の対イラン攻撃シナリオと称するものがリークされた。
 また、引用しなかった別記事
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/15/t...
によれば、駐米イスラエル大使が対イラン攻撃必至と読める文書を発出したし、同じく別記事
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-192748...
によれば、駐中大使として赴任する前イスラエル閣僚が、対イラン攻撃の際のイスラエル国内での死者数は500人内外と見積もられていると発言した。
 やはり、攻撃は近いんだろな。↓
 Richard Silverstein - the American blogger who says he has been given the text of a memo outlining Israel's plans for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities - is clear about what he thinks it is.
 He says it came from a senior Israeli politician - a former minister - and he describes it as a "sales pitch", used by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak to try to win round sceptical members of Israel's divided inner security cabinet.・・・
 <最初にサイバー攻撃。>
 The leaked text suggests that an Israeli operation would begin with a massive cyber attack against Iran's infrastructure, to "paralyse the regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders".
 <イスラエル国内からは弾道ミサイルが、ペルシャ湾の潜水艦からは巡航ミサイルが、イランの指揮統制システム、研究開発施設、核/ミサイル関係の重要人物宅、そして核関連施設に向けて発射される。↓>
 Ballistic missiles would be fired at Iranian nuclear targets, albeit with conventional non-nuclear warheads. Cruise missiles would be fired from Israeli submarines in the Gulf. ・・・
 ・・・it will not be just the main Iranian nuclear facilities that are struck, but command-and-control systems; research-and-development facilities and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. ・・・
 <破壊状況を衛星で確認した上で、破壊できなかった対象を<ステルス>航空機で攻撃する。↓>
 After the first wave of attacks the Israeli memo suggests there will be a rapid assessment of the damage done by satellite, after which manned aircraft will go in to attack "a short-list of those targets which require further assault".・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-192727...



#5805(2012.10.26)

 英国政府は、米国政府に対し、イランの核施設に対する攻撃を米軍が行う場合は、国際法違反なので、英本国はもとより、地中海、大西洋、インド洋にある英軍基地や米軍基地を使わせない旨非公式に伝えた由。↓
 Britain has rebuffed US pleas to use military bases in the UK to support the build-up of forces in the Gulf, citing secret legal advice which states that any pre-emptive strike on Iran could be in breach of international law.
 ・・・US diplomats have also lobbied for the use of British bases in Cyprus, and for permission to fly from US bases on Ascension Island in the Atlantic and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, both of which are British territories.・・・
 ・・・the US had yet to make a formal request to the British government, and that they did not believe an acceleration towards conflict was imminent or more likely. The discussions so far had been to scope out the British position・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/25/uk-rej...

 (イスラエルとパレスティナ当局を怒らせた)カタール首長のガザ訪問は、イラン包囲網形成が目的。↓
 ・・・while Israel and the Palestinian Authority may view Qatar's embrace of Hamas with chagrin, it is Iran that is the central loser in this drama. The emir's visit is part of a larger Qatari policy to unseat and reorient crucial Iranian allies around the Middle East -- and by extension, amputate a long-used, effective limb of Iranian foreign policy.・・・
 This new policy is most evident in Syria, where Qatar is explicitly and unashamedly supportingthe 19-month insurgency with money, equipment, and at the very least light weaponry -- little less than a declaration of war against President Bashar al-Assad, Iran's core ally.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/25/w...



#5815(2012.10.31)

 イスラエルのバラク外相は、イランが濃縮ウランの3分の1を医学研究用原子炉の燃料棒として転用したことで、対イラン核施設攻撃判断の時期を8〜10か月遅らせることが可能になったと語った。↓
 ・・・Mr. Barak, who was visiting London, was quoted by the newspaper as saying an immediate crisis had been averted this summer because Iran had chosen to use a third of its enriched uranium for use as fuel rods in a medical research reactor. The conversion of that uranium, which was reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency in August, makes it much more difficult to use militarily.
 The Iranian decision, Mr. Barak said, “allows contemplating delaying the moment of truth by 8 to 10 months.”・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/world/middleeast...


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