「右」の諸君、米国が、戦前、日本、ひいては東アジアに対して犯した犯罪と戦後日本がその占領下にあることに憤れ。「左」の諸君、米帝国主義への憤りを忘れたのか、その米帝の植民地となっている現状に甘んじ続けるのか。日本独立に向けて決起を!〜作成中

アラブの春 - Wikipedia
Arab Spring - Wikipedia

ジャスミン革命 - Wikipedia
Tunisian revolution - Wikipedia

2011年エジプト騒乱 - Wikipedia
2011 Egyptian revolution - Wikipedia



#4493(2011.1.12)

 アラブ世界は停滞を続けている。↓
 ・・・The striking underperformance of most Arab governments in political, economic and social terms - and of the Arab League, dubbed by some an "autocrats club"・・・with limited exceptions in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/11/tunisi...

 そして、新年早々、アルジェリアとチュニジアで暴動が起こってる。↓
 The new year has brought a wave of protests and violence against two U.S.-friendly authoritarian Arab regimes in North Africa. Riots in Algeria over rising food prices last weekend reportedly left five people dead and some 800 injured, while police arrested more than 1,000 people in their effort to crack down on protestors. At the same time, weeks of unrest and anger at high unemployment came to a head in neighboring Tunisia, with security forces killing at least 14 civilians protesting in a number of the country's poorer towns. Hundreds of others were hurt as police fired tear gas and live ammunition into crowds・・・
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2041...



#4495(2011.1.13)

 エジプトのイスラム教徒一般のコプト派への差別的姿勢がやり玉に挙げられている、↓
 ・・・ All Egyptians, however, particularly the Muslim majority, have come to generally accept the idea of Copts as inferior and as second-class citizens.・・・
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011...



#4499(2011.1.15)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 チュニジアの「革命」、同国への自由民主主義定着の契機になるか、イスラム原理主義による同国の席巻に道を啓くことになるのか注目だ。これにはウィキリークス「革命」の要素もある。アサンジももって瞑すべし。

<太田>

 それでは、その他の記事の紹介です。

 まずは、チュニジア「革命」から。

 きっかけは学卒青年の焼身自殺だった。↓
 When(12月17日) the 26-year-old Tunisian graduate - despairing of getting a decent job and abused by the police - set fire to himself in a public square, his story resonated far beyond his provincial town.
 When(1月3日) he later died of his injuries, he became both a symbol and a martyr.
 Now the unrest sparked by his self-immolation has led to the downfall of one of the region's longest-serving autocrats.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12198039

 ウィキリークスが暴露した駐チュニジア米大使によるチュニジアの体制批判、とりわけ大統領の奥さんの贅沢三昧批判、がチュニジア人の怒りに火をつけた。↓
 ・・・The Wikileaks revelations about the scathing private views of the US ambassador in Tunis were widely read across the region - and, some argue, even helped prepare the ground for the current unrest.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/14/tunisi...

 今のところ、「革命」の背景にイスラム原理主義の影はない。大統領は亡命した。↓
 ・・・The uprising, which on Friday sent President Ben Ali fleeing abroad, casting the country into further turmoil, appears largely to be a secular, grassroots movement.・・・
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/14/the-un-islamic-...

 アラブの非君主国で高齢の独裁者はまだ大勢いる。↓
 ・・・Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi (68 years old) has been in power since 1969; Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh (64) has ruled since 1978 and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (82) since 1981. Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika (73) is a relative newcomer, having been in power only since 1999. Not so much fathers as grandfathers of their nations, these autocrats cling to office -- and are increasingly out of touch with their young populaces. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 この「革命」が、多かれ少なかれ同じ問題を抱えているアラブ世界全体に波及する可能性がある。↓
 ・・・Tunisia’s uprising electrified the region. The most enthusiastic suggested it was the Arab world’s Gdansk, the birthplace of Solidarity in Poland, which heralded the end to Communist rule in Eastern Europe. That seemed premature, particularly because the contours of the government emerging in Tunisia were still unclear -- and because Tunisia is on the periphery of the Arab world, with a relatively affluent and educated population.・・・
 The combustible mix that inspired them -- economic woes and revulsion at corruption and repression -- seemed to echo in so many other countries in the Middle East・・・
 Tunisians’ grievances were as specific as universal: rising food prices, corruption, unemployment and the repression of a state that viewed almost all dissent as subversion.
 Smaller protests, many of them over rising prices, have already taken place in countries like Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Jordan. Egypt, in particular, seems to bear at least a passing resemblance to Tunisia -- a heavy-handed security state with diminishing popular support and growing demands from an educated, yet frustrated, population. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/world/africa/15r...



#4501(2011.1.16)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4499に関し)チュニジアは、カルタゴ→ローマ領→アラブ領→オスマントルコ領、という歴史で、オスマントルコ期が、ある意味、フランス保護領から独立国家となった1956年の翌年の1957年まで続いたんだな。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisia
 この国の今後はどうなる?

<太田>

 それでは、その他の記事の紹介です。

 まずは、チュニジア関連から。

 チュニジアでイスラム原理主義勢力が根絶やしにされた経緯と今次「革命」の原因が説明されている。↓
 ・・・In 1987, Tunisia teetered on the brink of a civil war between the tottering authoritarian government of President Habib Bourguiba and a popular Islamist movement. Ben Ali, who served as both interior minister and prime minister under Bourguiba, removed the president on the grounds that age and senility rendered him incompetent to govern. ・・・
 More than 10,000 Islamists and other opponents went to Ben Ali's prisons in the 1990s. ・・・
 Once it became clear in the mid-1990s that the government had forced the Islamists out of the country or so far underground that they could not organize any meaningful opposition, Tunisians began to lose their patience with Ben Ali's authoritarianism. ・・・
 ・・・for most of Ben Ali's rule, Tunisia's economy grew at a respectable rate. Tunisia has a larger middle class and a higher standard of living than any of its neighbors. ・・・
 More recently, however, the Europe-dependent Tunisian economy was experiencing global-recession-related contraction -- which hit university degree-holders of the sort that took to the streets against Ben Ali particularly hard.
Then there is social media. When the definitive history of this era gets written, Facebook will get its own chapter. Activists used Facebook to organize on the one space that the regime couldn't control -- cyberspace. ・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/14/a...

 チュニジアは、イスラム原理主義勢力が根絶やしにされちゃってる、という点で、中東アラブ世界では例外に属するので、今次「革命」は容易には他国に伝播しないだろって。↓
 ・・・The weakness of Tunisia's Islamist opposition also makes it difficult to forecast how other Middle Eastern regimes would react to similar protests.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/14/w...



#4503(2011.1.17)

 チュニジア「革命」は、まことにもって、史上初のIT「革命」だったでござる。↓
 ・・・The uprising began on Dec. 17, after a 26-year-old computer science graduate Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight, after police ordered him to stop selling vegetables on the street; he had been unable to find a job in his profession.・・・
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2042...



#4505(2011.1.18)

 初代大統領ブルギバがチュニジアに世俗性を確立したってハナシ。↓
 ・・・The first president of the country, and the tenacious leader of its independence movement, Habib Bourguiba・・・publicly broke the Ramadan fast, saying that such a long religious holiday was debilitating to the aspirations of a modern economy. He referred with contempt to face-covering and sponsored a series of laws entrenching the rights of women. During the 1967 war, he took a firm position preventing reprisals against the country's Jewish community, avoiding the disgraceful scenes that took place that year in other Arab capitals. Long before many other Arab regimes, Tunisia took an active interest in a serious peace agreement with Israel (as well as playing host to the PLO after its expulsion from Beirut in 1982). ・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2281450/

 チュニジアで「平和」な体制変革ができなかったことで、旧宗主国フランスを指弾するコラム。
 アングロサクソンの上から目線のフランス観が見え隠れしてるよ。↓
 ・・・France, the former colonial power and largest investor, has indulged and supported Ben Ali for decades, both materially and ideologically. While 18th-century France developed the modern philosophy of democracy, the contemporary French commentariat has developed something like a philosophy of anti-democracy. Dismissing Americans and their naive belief in "democracy promotion," a columnist in Le Figaro argued only last week that all nations have "a right to their own history," which is more important than their "right to democracy," whatever that means.
 In this school of thinking, Ben Ali was a model dictator: He defended women's rights, educated his middle class, prevented the radical Islamists from coming to power--and that was enough. Former French President Jacques Chirac once declared that "the most important human rights are the rights to be fed, to have health, to be educated, and to be housed." By that standard, he concluded, Tunisia's human rights record is "very advanced."・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2281311/



#4507(2011.1.19)

 ルイ16世にマリー・アントワネットあり、マルコスにイメルダあり、そして、チュニジアのベン・アリにトラベルシありき。↓
 ・・・Trabelsi was brought up with 10 brothers in the heart of the Tunis medina, the daughter of a fruit and nut seller. She was working as a hairdresser when she met her future husband and gave birth to their first daughter while he was married to his first wife.・・・
 Trabelsi was a "Machiavellian figure . . . intelligent, ambitious, calculating, manipulating and utterly without scruples or morals.
 "In short, she was absolutely fascinating!"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/18/leila-...

 イランの故パーレヴィ国王とその没落についてまとめられている。↓
 <彼は臆病者だった。↓>
 ・・・The shah, as Mr. Milani presents him, is above all a man of weakness.・・・
 Despite the martial pretense, the flight that ended the shah's rule -- he abandoned Tehran in January 1979 in the face of mounting protests and crumbling support -- was not the first time he had fled the country: During his pivotal 1953 power struggle with Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq, the shah -- "a nervous wreck," in the words of Loy Henderson, the U.S. ambassador -- determined to leave in February and was dissuaded, only to depart in August and return a few days later with outside help.・・・
 <彼は、女誑し+車・ボート・ヒコーキの浪費的収集家だった。↓>
 Mr. Milani alludes to his majesty's relentless womanizing, describes his personal collection of fancy cars, boats and planes (bought with money from the national treasury)・・・
 <彼は、専制的近代化を推進した。↓>
 The number of high schools increased sevenfold, universities from eight to 148. Along with education came increasing open-mindedness in some realms, although not in others. From 1965 to 1975, ・・・Iran "was a discordant combination of cultural freedoms and political despotism -- of increasing censorship against the opposition but increasing freedoms for everyone else. It is far from hyperbole to claim that during the sixties and seventies, Iran was one of the most liberal societies in the Muslim world in terms of cultural and religious tolerance, and in the state's aversion to interfere in the private lives of its citizens -- so long as they did not politically oppose the Shah."
 <彼が宗教的寛容を推進するとともに、(共産主義への防壁となることを期待して)イスラム教を支援したこと、これに加えて彼が推進した近代化の結果、反専制的な中産階級が勃興したこと、が彼の墓穴を掘った。↓>
 The shah's tolerance of religious minorities -- notably Bahai and Jews -- and his advancement of women's rights brought him to daggers with Iran's clergy, led by Khomeini. The shah's father had been a secularizer, but his son reinvigorated religious institutions as a counterweight to the communists, a stratagem he would regret. In a further irony, his educational and industrial advancements gave rise to a new middle class that rebelled against his autocracy. Its members indulged in・・・a "dangerous game of wishful self-delusion," believing that Khomeini and his legions would serve their purposes rather than the other way around. In this they were joined by the U.S. government and Western intellectuals.
 <中産階級がシーア派原理主義と手を結ぶなどというアホなことをやらかすのを、米国政府や欧米の知識人達まで容認した結果、自殺的にして悲劇的なイラン革命が起こり、パーレヴィ「朝」は倒れた。↑↓>
 "The paradox of the fall of the Shah," Mr. Milani says, "lies in the strange reality that nearly all advocates of modernity formed an alliance against the Shah and chose as their leader the biggest foe of modernity." ・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487035...



#4511(2011.1.21)

 ウーム、レバノンでのシーア派=キリスト教・連合がかくも強固であるとは驚きだ。
 レバノンの近い将来には暗澹たるものがあるぞ。↓
 ・・・At this point, a majority of Lebanon's Christian community has actually turned against・・・the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was established by the U.N. Security Council to prosecute the killers of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri・・・. As a result, there is little prospect today of the sort of mass popular demonstrations that kicked Syrian forces out of Lebanon in 2005 following the assassination of Hariri, a Sunni -- or that booted president-for-life Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali out of Tunisia just a few days ago. ・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/20/c...



#4517(2011.1.24)

 アラブ世界の権力者達は、おしなべてマフィア一家的支配を行っていることを、今次チュニジア「革命」が明るみに出したとよ。↓
 ・・・The fall of Ben Ali has accomplished one thing nonetheless: it has exposed the corrupt common denominator of every regime in the Arab world. They are all, in effect, mafia states -- entire nations run by families for their own benefit. Whether they call themselves republics or monarchies, whether they are allied to the United States or opposed to it, are on the list of states supporting terrorism or fighting it, have made peace with Israel or not, they are all family businesses. Whether they claim to be secular or follow Sharia or try to chart a course in between, their governance has less in common with the Magna Carta than it does with La Cosa Nostra.
 In lands where the building block of society is not the individual but clans and tribes, government has always tended to be a matter of someone else’s family telling your family what to do. But in this region, where at least half the population is now under the age of 30, is more educated than any previous generation, and is more frustrated than ever before, the traditional model just doesn’t deliver enough hope for the future. ・・・
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/01/23/a-dictator-disp...



#4521(2011.1.26)

 チュニジア「革命」の影響を受け、エジプトで全国の都市で反政府デモが行われている。↓
 ・・・marching en masse, uncontrolled and officially undirected, along a central Cairo boulevard, heading for the regime heartland of Tahrir Square -- this was something new and dangerous.
 The protests' organisation was different, too -- recalling Tunisia, and Iran in 2009. The biggest opposition grouping, the banned Muslim Brotherhood, for so long a useful Islamist idiot manipulated to bolster western support for the secular regime, declined to take part. Egypt's establishment rebel, the former UN nuclear watchdog chief, Mohammad ElBaradei, also steered clear.
 Instead an ad hoc coalition of students, unemployed youths, industrial workers, intellectuals, football fans and women, connected by social media such as Twitter and Facebook, instigated a series of fast-moving, rapidly shifting demos across half a dozen or more Egyptian cities. ・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/2...



#4523(2011.1.27)

<δττδ>(「たった一人の反乱」より)
 1989年4月2日、ベン・アリはクーデター後初の大統領選挙にのぞんだ。対立候補者はいなかった。大統領選挙は、ベン・アリが99.20%という圧倒的な数字を獲得し当選した。・・・
 1994年3月20日の大統領選挙では、元チュニジア人権擁護連盟(LTDH : Ligue tunisienne des droits de l'homme)代表のモンセフ・マルズーキ(Moncef Marzouki)が、候補者として名乗りを挙げていたものの、結局大統領選挙直前に断念した。ベン・アリは、1989年の99.27%を超える99.91%という数字で第二期目の当選を果たした。・・・
 1999年10月24日の大統領選挙は、アブデラマン・トゥリリ(Abderrahmane Tlili)UDU代表と社会主義者モハメド・ベルハジ・アモール(Muhammad Belhadj Amor)PUP党首が出馬し、チュニジア史上初の複数大統領候補による選挙戦となった。だが、ベン・アリは99.44%を獲得して三選を果たした。選挙投票率は89%であったが、投票所に行った者ほぼすべてがベン・アリに投票したという結果になった。・・・
 2004年10月24日、大統領選挙でベン・アリは、前回から多少数字を落としたものの94.4%の得票を得て四選を果たした。対立候補であったPUPの党首ムハンマド・ブウシハ(Muhammad Bouchiha)は3.78%、ムハンマド・アリ・ハロワーニ(Muhammad Ali Halouani)Ettajdid代表は0.95%、モウニール・ベジ(Mounir Beji)PSL党首は0.79%という結果に終わった。・・・
 2009年10月25日、大統領選挙でベン・アリは、89.62%の得票を得て五選を果たした。前回の大統領選に続いて対立候補であったPUPの党首ムハンマド・ブウシハ(Muhammad Bouchiha)が5.01%に躍進、新顔のアハメド・イノブリ(Ahmed Inoubli)UDU党首は、3.80%、ムハメド・ブラヒム(Ahmed Brahim)Ettajdid代表は1.57%という結果に終わった。・・・
http://www.l.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~dbmedm06/me_d13n/datab...

 1999年の「投票所に行った者ほぼすべてがベン・アリに投票した」ってのは異様だなあ。
 職に就くのに大金がいるようなマフィア的国家では、投票行動が監視されて、対立候補に入れると、人生を干されちゃうんですかねえ?
 20代の男性は「仕事の口利きをしてもらうのに、1万ディナール(約58万円)も要求される」と訴えた。
http://mainichi.jp/select/world/news/20110122dde00...

 民主主義を装った独裁体制というのが、今一ピンとこないんですよねえ。
 国家元首である大統領は、国民の直接選挙により選出される。>http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%81%E3%83%A5%E3...

<太田>

 あのね、ボクの民主主義独裁の概念、しっかり理解してね。
 2種類あって、ナポレオンやヒットラーみたいに、有権者を煽動して一度信任を得た上で選挙を廃止しちゃう粗暴犯的手口と、ソ連が始めたところの、自由に立候補できなくして選挙を定期的にやって一党独裁ないし一人独裁を維持する知能犯的手口(http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9C%80%E9%AB%98%E4...)とがあんのよ。
 チュニジアのケースは後者の典型だな。
 まともな候補者の立候補をあの手この手で禁止した上で、無能な子分格の連中だけを立候補させる、他方、選挙には有権者を半ば強制的にかり出すわけだな。
 もちろん、個々の投票も監視する。
 そうすりゃ、圧倒的多数の支持を得て当選だ、再選だってっことになるに決まってるだろ。
 エジプトも同じだよ。↓

 というわけで、その他の記事の紹介です。

 そのエジプト・・私の第二の故郷・・で、ムバラク打倒に向けて山が動き出した感があります。
 順調に進むといいのですが・・。↓
 ・・・Tuesday's demonstrations were the largest in years and, by some estimates, one of the largest anti-government protests in Egypt's history, rivaled in recent memory only by a gathering across the country organized by the banned Muslim Brotherhood in 2005.
 Although members of the Islamist group are participating in this week's demonstrations, the Muslim Brotherhood has not organized them. Many among the throngs on the streets of Cairo are college-educated Egyptians in their 20s and 30s, with some older. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
 For decades, Egypt’s authoritarian president, Hosni Mubarak, played a clever game with his political opponents.
 He tolerated a tiny and toothless opposition of liberal intellectuals whose vain electoral campaigns created the facade of a democratic process. And he demonized the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood as a group of violent extremists who posed a threat that he used to justify his police state.
 But this enduring and, many here say, all too comfortable relationship was upended this week by the emergence of an unpredictable third force, the leaderless tens of thousands of young Egyptians who turned out to demand an end to Mr. Mubarak’s 30-year rule.
 Now the older opponents are rushing to catch up. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/world/middleeast...



#4525(2011.1.28)

 反米・親イスラム原理主義のアルジャジーラが、フェイスブックを経由して「特派員」映像を流してチュニジア「革命」成功に寄与したことが話題になっている。↓
 ・・・Al Jazeera has been widely admired for its aggressive coverage of the Tunisian uprising, which was largely ignored in most Western outlets. The channel succeeded despite serious obstacles: the Tunisian government had barred its reporters from the country, and a Tunisian born-anchor, Mohammed Krichen, arranged for an old friend, Lotfi Hajji, to work under cover as Al Jazeera’s eyes and ears on the ground.
 Mr. Hajji, a freelance journalist who also calls himself a human rights activist, was followed and harassed by the secret police almost constantly. After the uprising started, local contacts began sending Mr. Hajji amateur videos of police violence over Facebook. Al Jazeera began showing the grainy cellphone videos on its broadcasts, as part of what the station sympathetically labeled “the Sidi Bouzid Uprising” after the town where a young man started it all by setting himself on fire on Dec. 17.
 Each time Al Jazeera broadcast the videos, more would flood into Mr. Hajji’s Facebook account, in a cycle that blew the seeds of revolt across the country. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast...

 この騒動、イェーメンにも飛び火してるからね。
 同国じゃ、アルカーイダが蠢いてるだけに、心配なこっちゃ。↓
 Inspired by the revolts in Egypt and Tunisia, thousands of Yemenis took to the streets Thursday demanding an end to the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled this impoverished Middle Eastern nation for more than three decades.・・・
 Yemen's unrest represents a widening of the upheavals unfolding across the Arab world. It poses yet another threat to the stability of this U.S. ally, which al-Qaeda militants are using as a base to target the West and its allies. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#4527(2011.1.29)

 それでは、まず、エジプト騒擾特集からです。

 プライベートな話とない交ぜにして申し訳ないが、私のカイロ時代に住んでた所のイメージが掴めるので、この衛星写真をぜひ見ていただきたい。↓
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/flash/newsgraphics...

 この写真には収まり切れてないけど、左の下(南)にギザのピラミッド群がある。
 さて、ナイル川の島が二つ見える↑だろうが、上(北)の方のがザマレック島で、その島の北の方に斜めに横切っている大通りが見えるでしょ。
 その大通りの北部の真ん中あたりのマンションに私は住んでたんです。
 この大通りの南に大きな公園らしいものが見えると思うけど、October 6 Bridgeのマークをクリックしてズームを引いてもらうと、ザマレック島のスポーティングクラブのプールが見えてくる。このプール(の前身?)で私は、夏場、毎日のように泳いでいました。
 マークがついてる所が、カイロでの騒擾のホットスポットですが、私が住んでた所、ほぼカイロの中心だって分かるでしょ。

 ムバラクが閣僚の総とっかえを言明したが、こんなものでは騒擾はおさまらない。↓
 In a late-night TV address, Mubarak refused to relinquish power, but dismissed his government, promising a new administration to tackle unemployment and promote democracy.
 But his call for stability appeared to cut little ice with many protesters, who surged on to the streets as soon as he finished speaking, defying a curfew.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/28/egypt-...

 警察は群衆に圧倒されている。カギは軍の動向(後出)。↓
 ・・・The crowds fought with their bodies and stones until the police gave up. ・・・A few hours ago, everyone was saying: Now, the army will come. But it is no longer clear on whose side the army will intervene. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 これまでずっとムバラクを支援してきた米国にも責任がある。↓
 ・・・the US needs a friendly government in Cairo more than it needs a democratic one. Whether the issue is Israel-Palestine, Hamas and Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, security for Gulf oil supplies, Sudan, or the spread of Islamist fundamentalist ideas, Washington wants Egypt, the Arab world's most populous and influential country, in its corner. That's the political and geostrategic bottom line. In this sense, Egypt's demonstrators are not just fighting the regime. They are fighting Washington, too.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica...

 非暴力的な騒擾も、次第に暴力的に。だけど、ここには引用しなかったが、その後、警察と騒擾者達が各所で「和解」している。いかにも穏和なエジプト人の世界だ。↓
 ・・・the protesters continued to surge toward downtown Cairo and, after dark, began setting fire to police vehicles and government buildings, as well as the headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party.
 Until then, the protesters had largely refrained from initiating violence, choosing instead to chant slogans and wave the Egyptian flag.・・・
 <騒擾に参加している外務省職員の声を聞け。↓>
 "All the Egyptian people are oppressed, and their time has come. Enough is enough," said a man who identified himself as a diplomat with the nation's foreign ministry, but would only give his first name, Ahmed. "I know Egyptians, and they will not stop until Mubarak is gone."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 大卒の一小市民が不正義の下で生きるより尊厳の死をと語る。↓
 ・・・Dandarwi was raised in a poor farming village, and was the first in his family to go to college. For decades, Egypt provided him with opportunities for advancement.
 But he said the stagnant economy and the rigid social structure have left his three children with none of the chances to climb that he had.
 On Friday, he expects to be on the streets, and he said that his college-age son will be with him, no matter how severe the consequences. "I worry about him, sure, because I'm a father," Dandarwi said. "But I prefer that a human being die with dignity rather than live with injustice." ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 やはり騒擾に参加しているカイロ大学教授、騒擾に参加しなかった若き日の自分の怯懦を悔い二度と同じ過ちをくり返さぬと語る。うー、泣けるじゃないか。↓
 ・・・"I missed my chance to revolt when I was a young man," said Dr Gihad El Nahary, a 52-year-old professor at Cairo University. "I am not going to make the same mistake now."・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/28/egypt-...

 チュニジアの軍は、フランスの生徒たるベン・アリによって、ナポレオン流に、強い警察に圧倒され権力中枢から遠ざけられてきたこともあって、体制に与しなかった。↓
 ・・・Ben Ali, himself a former interior minister, followed a French model of keeping the ministries of interior and defense at a distance from one another -- and the military far from himself. It's the same system Napoleon used to forestall army coups d'etat・・・
 He also kept the military weak. Tunisia's army is only 27,000 strong; the navy has no deep-water ships. Some analysts say the air force has as few as 12 working helicopters.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/28/j...

 これに対し、歴代大統領を輩出し、優遇されてきたエジプト軍は事情が全く異なるが、民衆の親軍感情と米国の意向をフイにすることは困難なだけに、体制に与するとは限らない。↓
 ・・・The army commands broad respect in Egypt. Demonstrators cheered on Friday as tanks deployed in front of government buildings・・・
 It is one thing to protect government buildings from looters, but something else to tarnish the reputation of the army by killing citizens,・・・
 Such action could also damage the military’s relationship with the United States, which may give the generals pause. The United States has provided about $35 billion in military aid to Egypt since it made peace with Israel in 1978. Robert Gibbs, President Obama’s spokesman, said that aid to Egypt, now $1.3 billion a year, would come under review should the violence continue. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast...

 私の結論。
 軍は騒擾者達を銃撃することはなく、エジプト「革命」は成功し、ムバラクは失権するだろう。



#4529(2011.1.30)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4527に関し)エジプトの市民には武器はないがイェーメンの市民はみんな小銃を持っている。このこと一つとってもアラブ諸国はみんな違うけど、共通しているのは警察が使用する催涙弾が米国製であること。米国が厭われるわけだ。

<太田>

 というわけで、本日も、記事の紹介は、エジプト「革命」関連から。

 軍は、騒擾の鎮圧には全く関わろうとしていない。
 これはムバラク政権の策略だ、掠奪もそうだ、という声もある。↓
 ・・・After four days of nationwide battles between protesters and police, the tens of thousands of Egyptians who have taken to the streets to demand an end to Mubarak's 30-year rule received an unexpected endorsement when the military declined to block their latest rally. Instead, soldiers flashed peace signs and smiled approvingly as demonstrators chanted "Down with Mubarak!'' When protesters attempted to mount one of the tanks, the troops invited more aboard, until an entire convoy was covered, leading the crowd to cheer mightily.
 It remains to be seen whether Saturday's grand gestures reflected a military endorsement of the protesters' demand or were simply an attempt by commanders to defuse tensions and buy time for the autocratic Mubarak to consolidate control and put in a plan of succession. ・・・
 Government authorities blamed protesters run amok for the breakdown of law and order. But demonstrators claimed that the ruling National Democratic Party was sending plainclothes loyalists to sow anarchy in a bid to discredit the burgeoning democracy movement and to justify what protesters fear would be a merciless crackdown.
 "Mubarak wants chaos,'' said Sayed Abdel el-Hakim, a 30-year-old math teacher.
 Protesters held aloft banners reading "Don't burn Egypt,'' and some bragged of having guarded the famed Egyptian Museum from looters until army commandos arrived on the scene Friday night. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
 ・・・Some speculated that the sudden withdrawal of the police from the cities - even some museums and embassies in Cairo were left unguarded - was intended to create chaos that could justify a crackdown. And widespread reports of looting did return on Saturday night. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/world/middleeast...

 実際、軍上層部がムバラクから離間しつつある徴候は全くない。↓
 ・・・Despite the warm greetings given to demonstrators by soldiers in the street, there were no signs that the generals had abandoned Mubarak, himself a former air force commander. Analysts said it appeared likely that the soldiers had been instructed to avoid the kinds of violent clashes mounted by police who had confronted the protesters with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 しかも、インターネット・アクセスが政府の手によって完全に不可能にされた。↓
 ・・・Internet access was cut off in Egypt shortly after midnight Friday, apparently after authorities ordered the country's five service providers to block it, according to experts. Cellphone service was also severely disrupted. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 しかも、今次「革命」、貧しい人々は参加していない。↓
 ・・・In many poor and working-class neighborhoods of Cairo, people can't afford to take time off work to join street protests.・・・
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-f...

 だけど、ダボス会議に集まったアラブのエリート達のコンセンサスは、エジプト「革命」は成功するだろうというもの。
 ボクのヨミと同じだね。↓
 The unrest engulfing Egypt caught business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum off guard, but it became the hottest topic among the Arab elite here.・・・a near monarchical regime cloaked in democracy would inevitably end, Arab executives here concluded. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/business/global/...

 ちなみに、今次エジプト「革命」、チュニジア「革命」が直接的契機となったが、昨年の反政府活動家の治安当局による殴打殺害も背景にあるとさ。↓
 ・・・Many protesters said they were stirred by the death of Khaled Said, an activist who was beaten to death by security forces last year. He became a symbol of abuse at the hands of the security forces under Mubarak. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 それにしても、エジプト考古学博物館の掠奪被害が最小限で収まって、ホントに良かった。↓
 Would-be looters broke into Cairo's famed Egyptian Museum, ripping the heads off two mummies and damaging about 10 small artifacts before being caught and detained by army soldiers, Egypt's antiquities chief said Saturday.
Zahi Hawass said the vandals did not manage to steal any of the museum's antiquities, and that the prized collection was now safe and under military guard. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/01/29/world/m...



#4531(2011.1.31)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4529に関し)革命にせよ、革命の際の掠奪にせよ、それは当該社会の未成熟さの現れであって、自由民主主義化の道は一筋縄では行かないことを意味している。
 エジプトの将来が心配だが、まずはムバラク一味に退いてもらわにゃ。

<太田>

 まずは、エジプト「革命」関係から。

 私服警官が各所で掠奪に加わっているのは確からしい。
 警官が一斉に姿を消したこともあり、これらは、ムバラク政権のやらせなのか、軍部と警察の対立の現れなのか、等々、憶測が乱れ飛んでいる。↓
 ・・・police officers who had shed their uniforms <are seen being> engage<d> in looting and vandalism overnight. ・・・even as the army was making arrests, the police were apparently letting criminals go. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
 ・・・"As Nero burned Rome, the government is trying to burn Egypt," said bookstore owner Aza al-Hadary, 63. "It's a dirty plan. Mubarak is in a corner and he doesn't want to leave."
 Evidence of a possible rift between the army and the police appeared to gain credence when state television announced that Mubarak had met with the nation's military leadership and Suleiman. Significantly, the interior minister was not mentioned. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 警官が姿を消したことで、金持ちと貧乏人との対立・・前者の後者によって掠奪されるのではないかという疑心暗鬼に根ざすもの・・が表面化しそうな気配もある。
 考慮すべきは、このところ、金持ちが貧乏人と違った世界に生きるようになってきている点だとよ。↓
 ・・・on Friday night, the police pulled out of Egypt’s major cities abruptly, and tensions between rich and poor exploded. ・・・
 The widening chasm between rich and poor in Cairo has been one of the conspicuous aspects of city life over the last decade -- and especially the last five years. Though there were always extremes of wealth and poverty here, until recently the rich lived more or less among the poor -- in grander apartments or more spacious apartments but mixed together in the same city.
 But as the Mubarak administration has taken steps toward privatizing more government businesses, kicking off an economic boom for some, rich Egyptians have fled the city. They have flocked to gated communities full of big American-style homes around country clubs, and the remoteness of their lives from those of average Egyptians has become starkly visible.
 The new rich communities and older affluent enclaves closer to the city were seized with fear over the weekend after a rash of looting Friday night. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/africa/31c...

 欧米では、エジプト「革命」支援の大合唱が、とりわけエジプト大好き人間の間からわきあがっている。↓
 ・・・Its 80 million people are proud of their country, both of its extraordinary ancient civilization and its distinctive modern culture. They celebrate national symbols such as the incomparable singer Umm Kulthum; immortal writers such as Taha Hussein and Naguib Mahfouz; and dazzling athletes such as Mohamed Aboutrika, star of Cairo's beloved Al Ahly football club. And if Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei has been scorned by Mubarak's regime, that has only made him more of a hero to Egyptians. Neither Egyptians nor their leaders are radical or xenophobic. Their patience and good humor are legendary・・・
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-...

 エジプト「革命」の影響は既に色んなところに出ている。
 シリアのアサド大統領が、同国での政治改革の前倒しを口にし始めた。↓
 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who inherited a regime that has held power for four decades, said he will push for more political reforms in his country, in a sign of how Egypt's violent revolt is forcing leaders across the region to rethink their approaches. ・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487048...

 一方、中共当局は、この「革命」の報道、情報規制を始めている。↓
 BEIJING-Chinese authorities have blocked the word "Egypt" from searches on Twitter-like microblogging sites in an indication of concern among Communist Party leaders that the unrest there could encourage similar calls for political reform in China.
 Internet censors also appeared Sunday to have deleted almost all of the comments posted beneath the few limited reports on the unrest -- mostly from the state-run Xinhua news agency -- that have been published on Chinese news sites in the past few days.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487048...

 その中共では、着々と民主主義化が進んでるってコラムが台北タイムスに載ってたな。
 まんざらウソじゃないんだろうが・・。↓
 ・・・all of China’s approximately 1 million villages -- home to about 600 million voters -- hold local elections every three years・・・with a greater number of independent candidates and increasing use of the secret ballot. ・・・
 ・・・village elections might be extended to the next highest government level -- township administrations -- during the next few years.・・・
 Competitive elections for lower-level party posts have already been held, with votes for provincial and national party congresses showing electoral slates with 15 percent to 30 percent more candidates than positions.・・・
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archive...



#4533(2011.2.1)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4531に関し)中共当局は、カラー革命(含チュニジア、エジプト両「革命」)は真の民主主義をもたらさないって言っている(最後のWSJ記事)が、確かに民主主義はショートカットで実現は出来ない。
 だがお前がそれ言うなっちゅうの。

<太田>

 上記に補足すりゃ、ロシアや支那じゃ、革命によって自由民主主義へのショートカットを実現しようとしたどころか、革命によってポスト自由民主主義へのショートカットを実現しようとして、世界中でウン千万の不慮の死をもたらしたわけだ。
 そんな連中に、本件で発言の権利はないの。

 それでは、記事の紹介です。
 まずは、エジプト「革命」関連から。
 
 軍が武力を使用しないと宣言したことで、ムバラクの失権がほぼ確定した。↓
 ・・・the army announced it would not use force against the people and declared the demands of the protesters to be legitimate.・・・
 ・・・surely・・・President Mubarak<'s>・・・30-year rule over Egypt is very nearly over.・・・The logical step now, though, is for Mr Suleiman to take over power. ・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-123301...

 そこで、急速に「革命」の行く手を心配する声が噴出してきた。

 今次「革命」の核心的原因が指摘されている。↓
 ・・・Poverty and unemployment? These are so pervasive that they could explain any rebellion at any time--and in any case Tunisians are among the richest per capita in North Africa. Dictatorship and repression? Again, these are commonplaces, and so far the most conspicuously authoritarian despotisms--Syria and Saudi Arabia, for instance--have been spared the challenge of insurrection.・・・
 ・・・history shows people just as prepared to fight for honor and recognition as they are for less abstract concepts like food or territory. ・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2283168/

 それはその通りだとして、今次「革命」が成功すれば、逆説的に(アルカーイダ等の)イスラム過激派に対する打撃になるかもしれないが、新政権がホメイニ的政権(=イスラム原理主義的政権)ないしナセル的政権(汎アラブナショナリズム/ファシスト政権)になる恐れもあるとの「中立的」見方が示されている。↓
“America’s tragedy on September 11 was born in the prisons of Egypt.” By visiting imprisonment, torture and exile upon Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Mubarak foreclosed any possibility of an Islamic revolution in his own country. But he also helped radicalize and internationalize his country’s Islamists, pushing men like Ayman Al-Zawahiri -- Osama bin Laden’s chief lieutenant, and arguably the real brains behind Al Qaeda -- out of Egyptian politics and into the global jihad.
 At the same time, Mubarak’s relationship with Washington has offered constant vindication for the jihadi worldview. Under his rule, Egypt received more American dollars than any country besides Israel. For many young Egyptians, restless amid political and economic stagnation, it’s been a short leap from hating their dictator to hating his patrons in the United States. One of the men who made this leap was an architecture student named Mohamed Atta, who was at the cockpit when American Airlines Flight 11 hit the World Trade Center.
 These sound like good reasons to welcome Mubarak’s potential overthrow, and the end to America’s decades-long entanglement with his drab, repressive regime. Unfortunately, Middle Eastern politics is never quite that easy. The United States supported Mubarak for so long because of two interrelated fears: the fear of another Khomeini and the fear of another Nasser. Both anxieties remain entirely legitimate today. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/opinion/31doutha...

 より端的に、エジプトにおける、ホメイニ的政権出現の可能性のほか、アナーキー状態となる可能性を指摘するむきもある。↓
 ・・・There are two basic possibilities: the regime will stabilize (with or without President Hosni Mubarak), or power will be up for grabs. Here are the precedents for the latter situation:
・Remember the Iranian revolution of 1979, when all sorts of people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now president.
・Remember the Beirut Spring of 2005 when people poured out into the streets to demand freedom? Hezbollah is now running Lebanon.
・Remember the democracy and free elections among the Palestinians in 2006? Hamas is now running the Gaza Strip.
・Remember democracy in Algeria? Tens of thousands of people were killed in the ensuing civil war that begin in 1991 and endured over a decade.
It doesn’t have to be that way, but the precedents are pretty daunting. And what did Egyptians tell the Pew pollsters recently when asked whether they liked “modernizers” or “Islamists”? Islamists: 59 percent; Modernizers: 27 percent.・・・
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0...

 そもそもエジプトの人口は多すぎるし、エジプト人はエジプトがスンニ・アラブ世界の盟主であるとの過去の栄光・・もはや幻想でしかない・・の回復を願っているが、そんな国で民主主義が機能するワケがない、とする。↓
 ・・・Egypt's problems are immense. It has a population it cannot support, a standard of living that is stagnant and a self-image as leader of the (Sunni) Arab world that does not, really, correspond to reality. It also lacks the civic and political institutions that are necessary for democracy. The next Egyptian government -- or the one after - might well be composed of Islamists. In that case, the peace with Israel will be abrogated and the mob currently in the streets will roar its approval. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic... 

 イスラエルは、「革命」の成功は、エジプト、ひいてはヨルダンとの和平も危うくしかねない、と「革命」に反対している。↓
 ・・・"The collapse of the old regime in Cairo, if it takes place, will have a massive effect, mainly negative, on Israel's position in the region," commented the Haaretz military expert Amos Harel. "In the long run, it could put the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan in danger, the largest strategic assets after the support of the US."・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/israel...

 ハマスもパレスティナ当局も、選挙をやらないで権力に居坐っている自分達が危なくなると、「革命」の成功を望んでいない。
 The Hamas rulers of Gaza and the rival Palestinian Authority leadership of the West Bank rarely see eye-to-eye on anything. But with mass protests rocking Egypt, across Gaza’s southern border, the Palestinian adversaries have united in maintaining a cautious silence, hedging their bets given the unpredictability of the outcome and clearly concerned about a possible spread of popular unrest to their areas. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/world/middleeast...

 エジプト国内でも、人口の10%を占めるキリスト教コプト派は、「革命」は、イスラム過激派ないしイスラム原理主義への押さえがきかなくなり、自分達が更に迫害、虐殺されかねない、と「革命」に反対している。↓
 Like the protesters who have flooded the streets of Egypt in the past week, the country's large minority of Coptic Christians worry about joblessness and lack of freedoms. But most want President Hosni Mubarak to stay in power.・・・
 Mr. Mubarak has been aggressive in pursuing perceived Islamist extremist groups, a policy that has endeared him to Coptic Christians, not to mention the U.S. ・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487034...

 結論:ムバラクだけ失権して現体制が基本的にそのまま・・つまりは、人間的な装いを纏った形で・・維持されることが望ましい。↓
 ・・・Rosemary Hollis, professor of Middle East policy studies at City University, London, suggested the view of western intelligence officials or diplomats would be: "Senior military people should quietly tell him [Mubarak], 'We need a more benign version of you.'"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/egypt-...

 これ↑は、私の見解でもある。
 しかし、長期的にはエジプトで自由民主主義化が漸進的に進む、と私は楽観している。



#4535(2011.2.2)

<υυΔΔ>(「たった一人の反乱」より)

 エジプト「革命」成就による世界情勢の不安定化への懸念はひとまず置いといて、ムバラク大統領による次期大統領選への不出馬表明は、一般大衆(エジプト人だけでなく)には、“曳かれ者の小唄”そのものだよなぁ。
 未練がましいというか、前立腺肥大で頻尿に悩んでいるような?、潔さが一切感じられないと世間では映っているようにおもうけど、実際その通りなんだろ(笑)。
 まぁ、権力の座に限らず、ヒトは現在得ている(持っている)モノを失うことへの拒絶と焦燥感…怖れがある故の足掻きを、今ムバラクが演じ見せてくれてんだなーとシミジミ…。
 だが、太田さんは違うよね。 凄いことだけど、故に娑婆では奇人変人のカテゴリーに分類される(笑)。

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4533に関し)
 http://bbc.in/dRH93Qにエジプト全土の衛星写真が載ってるから見てごらん。
 ナイルのデルタ地帯にしか緑地帯がないことが分かる。
 こんな国に8000万人が暮らしている。
 先進国の援助抜きでは経済が維持できないワケだ。

 エジプト情勢は僕のヨミ通りに進行してるね。
 ムバラクの悲喜劇は、彼の退陣を求めているのがエジプト国民(の過半)「だけ」だという点にある。
 コプト派、イスラエル、中東の独裁者達、欧米政府のために彼は苦慮してる。

<太田>

 お褒めいただいて痛み入るが、ツイッターで記した↑ように、ムバラクなりに軍部と「熟議」してんだと思うよ。
 いままで、体制の維持が基本的にできるような後継者の養成を怠ってきたツケが今噴出してきてるわけだけどね。

<υΔυΔ>(「たった一人の反乱」より)

 オバマ政権の鶴の一声で決着とはすごいね。
 エジプトのムバラク大統領が1日、今年秋の任期切れに伴い退任する意向を示した背景には、米オバマ政権による働きかけがあった。政権幹部によるとオバマ大統領はこの日、次回選挙に出馬しないよう求めるメッセージをムバラク大統領に伝えていたという。
http://jp.wsj.com/World/Europe/node_178734

<υυΔΔ>(同上)

 流石ぁ〜我が宗主国様 ε- (´ー`*) フッ。

<太田>

 ムバラク=軍部は、軍部に対するエジプト国民の信任、及び軍事援助等を奮発してくれてる米国の信任を裏切るわけに行かないから、ムバラク退任は自発的判断さ。
 米国が直接をそれを求めようと求めまいと、結論は同じだったはずだ。

 それでは、エジプト「革命」関連記事の紹介です。(本日は、それ以外の紹介すべき記事はなかった。)

 要するに、エジプトの状況は、自由民主主義が一応機能しているインドの状況と極めて似通っているということ。
 すなわち、短期的な移転的支出が長期的な投資たる教育や農業支出を食ってしまっている。
 しかも、エジプトは、(インドのヒンズー原理主義よりタチの悪い)イスラム教原理主義に冒されている。(ただし、エジプトで自由選挙を実施すれば、イスラム同朋会が権力を掌握するのは必至、ということを必ずしも意味しない。)
 だから、エジプトが自由民主主義化しても、エジプトの現状が良くなる可能性は少ない。
 ただし、自由民主主義化したら、独裁制と裏腹の関係にあるところの腐敗は、若干なりとも軽減することだろう。↓
 <エジプトの文盲率は35%。↓>
 ・・・35% of all Egyptians, and 45% of Egyptian women can't read.
 <10人のうち9人の女性は、性器切除を受けている。
 ムバラク政権はその根絶に鋭意取り組んできたが全く成功していない。↓>
 Nine out of ten Egyptian women suffer genital mutilation. ・・・
 The Mubarak government announced a "complete" ban on genital mutilation in 2007, the second time it has done so - without success・・・
 President and Mrs Mubarak are incomparably more enlightened than the Egyptian public. Three-quarters of acts of genital mutilation in Egypt are executed by physicians. ・・・
 <エジプトは世界最大の小麦(主食)輸入国で、しかも、そのエンゲル係数は大きい。↓>
 Wheat prices have almost doubled in the past year.
 Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer, beholden to foreign providers for nearly half its total food consumption. Half of Egyptians live on less than $2 a day. Food comprises almost half the country's consumer price index, and much more than half of spending for the poorer half of the country.・・・
 <エジプトの小麦の反当収穫量は極めて低い。↓>
 Local yields are only 18 bushels per acre, compared to 30 to 60 for non-irrigated wheat in the United States, and up 100 bushels for irrigated land. ・・・
 Officially, Egypt's unemployment rate is slightly above 9%, the same as America's, but independent studies say that a quarter of men and three-fifths of women are jobless. According to a BBC report, 700,000 university graduates chase 200,000 available jobs. ・・・
 <食糧補助金と燃料補助金が嵩んで公的債務が膨張してきている。>
 Egypt's public debt is already high, at roughly 74% of gross domestic produce (GDP), according to UBS. Earlier this year the IMF projected that Egypt's food subsidies would cost the equivalent of 1.1% of GDP in 2009-10, while subsidies for energy were expected to add up to 5.1%.・・・
 <そこへもってきて、昨年来、小麦の国際価格が急騰している。>
 It wasn't the financial crisis that undermined dysfunctional Arab states, but Asian prosperity. The Arab poor have been priced out of world markets. There is no solution to Egypt's problems within the horizon of popular expectations. ・・・
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB02Ak01....

 イランは、(ここには出てこないが、帝政イラン政府が強権的に長期的投資をしたことの正の遺産に加えて、)エジプトよりは自由民主主義化していて、かつ石油収入があるから、エジプトよりも政権が安定している。↓
 ・・・40 percent of Egyptians make less than $2 a day while such poverty is less widespread in Iran; Iranian women are far more present in universities; literacy is higher in Iran, the fertility rate lower. As Precht writes, “Iranian politics, though badly flawed, offers more elements of democracy than Egypt’s.・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/opinion/01iht-ed...

 エジプトの軍部のエジプト国民による信任の原因とそれが自由民主主義化への触媒役を果たすことへの期待が記されている。
 また、シリアのアサド政権の相対的安定性の理由がその反米性にある、とも記されている。↓
 ・・・"The army is the middle class in camouflage," says Jamil Mroueh, a Lebanese journalist. Soldiers are embraced on the streets of Cairo because they symbolize the independence and integrity of the nation. It's a throwback to the paradigm Samuel Huntington described in his 1957 study "The Soldier and the State": A strong army can allow a transition to democracy and economic reform. ・・・
 Assad today is less vulnerable than Mubarak was: His regime is at least as corrupt and autocratic, but it has remained steadfastly anti-American and anti-Israel. Hard as it is for us in the West to accept, this rejectionism adds to Assad's power, whereas Mubarak was diminished by his image as the West's puppet. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 ちなみに、エジプトの軍部のエジプト国民による信任の原因をもう少し述べると、軍部出身のナセルが中心になって、王政(もともとは外来王政)を打倒したこと、そのナセルが汎アラブナショナリズムの旗手となるとともに、1956年のスエズ(第2次中東)戦争に「勝利」したこと、そして、やはり軍部出身のサダトがエジプト軍を率いて1973年の第4次中東戦争に「勝利」したこと、だ。



#4537(2011.2.3)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4476に関し)チュニジア、エジプト、イェーメン、ヨルダン、スーダンで起こっていること全ては、1215年のイギリスでの専制的支配打破・・自由民主主義・・宣言(マグナカルタ)が起源なんだよ。(チュニジア以外は旧英領。)

<υΔΔυ>(「たった一人の反乱」より)

 関係ないけど、エジプトといえばフィフィ
http://ameblo.jp/fifi2121/entry-10788441634.html

<ΔυΔυ>(同上)

 「新政権がホメイニ的政権(=イスラム原理主義的政権)ないしナセル的政権(汎アラブナショナリズム/ファシスト政権)になる恐れもある」(#4533)
 「シリアのアサド政権の相対的安定性の理由がその反米性にある」(#4535)
を裏付けるかのような記事ですねw。
 どんな勢力が新政権を握るんでしょうねぇ?

<太田>

 そんじゃさっそく、いつものエジプト「革命」特集を。(本日も紹介すべきその他の記事はなかった。)

 イスラム原理主義勢力がエジプトで権力を握れるかどうか疑問だし、権力を握ったとしてもそれほど心配はいらない、とあのシュペングラー大先生・・自分がアジアタイムスの記者であることを明かしちゃったぜ・・がおっしゃっておる。↓
 ・・・There’s a big difference between radical Islam with and without oil, and an Egyptian government that allies with Hamas and seeks confrontation with Israel would face potentially catastrophic economic conditions. Even Islamists have to eat, as I wrote in my “Spengler” column this morning. Egypt desperately needs aid from the US, not to mention the Sunni Gulf States.・・・
http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1669

 その理由をもう少し詳しく述べてるのがこのコラムだ。
 私の言葉に直せば、エジプトのイスラム同朋会って、現在のトルコの与党並みの穏健なイスラム集団に変身しちゃってるってんだな。
 もち、かなりアナクロな所はあるし、やや反米・反イスラエルだけど、どうってことないよってわけ。↓
 ・・・the Brotherhood of today is not the Brotherhood of yesterday. Decades ago, it renounced violence. More recently, the group has publicly committed itself, in Arabic, to many of the foundational components of democratic life, including alternation of power, popular sovereignty, and judicial independence. In its political programs, the Brotherhood has largely stripped its programs of traditional Islamist content. Where the Brotherhood once talked endlessly about "application of shariah law" (tatbiq al-shariah), it now settles for vague expressions promoting Islamic values and morals. Meanwhile, its vocabulary has shifted from favoring an "Islamic state" to a "civil, democratic state with an Islamic reference."
 The Brotherhood, to be sure, is not a force for liberalism, nor is it likely to become so anytime soon. The group holds views that most Americans would be uncomfortable with, including on women's rights and segregation of the sexes. But we're not voting in Egyptian elections; Egyptians are.
 Ultimately, though, American fears about the Brotherhood are not about gender equality or religious freedom. After all, one of America's closest allies is the most theocratic country in the world. Saudi Arabia, as conservative as it is, supports U.S. security objectives in the region. The real concern is whether the Brotherhood, known for its inflammatory rhetoric against Israel and the United States, would work against U.S. regional interests. Crucially, would it attempt to cancel the peace treaty with Israel -- long the cornerstone of the U.S.-Egypt relationship? Such an outcome is unlikely; the Brotherhood is well aware that this is a red line for the international community. Any new, transitional government -- which will be tasked with rebuilding a battered country -- will not want to harm its relationship with Washington and risk losing billions of dollars in much-needed assistance.・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2283616/pagenum/all/#p2

 なお、このイスラム同朋会的イスラム原理主義とアルカーイダ系イスラム過激派との違いが詳述されている記事がこれ。↓
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast...

 それにそもそも、イスラム同朋会、現在進行形のエジプト「革命」で補助的役割しか果たしておらず、「革命」の主力はあくまでも世俗的な人々なんだよ。↓
 ・・・For many, the Brotherhood itself is a vestige of an older order that has failed to deliver. ・・・
 For the first time in a generation, Arabs seem to be looking again to Egypt for leadership, and that sense of destiny was voiced throughout the day. ・・・“Once we do, we’re going to free the Arab world.” ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast...

 いずれにせよ、ポスト・ムバラク体制は、より反米的でより親アラブ/イスラム隣人的になるのは必至だとよ。↓
 ・・・“It is clear the new Egypt in the post-Mubarak era will be self-determined, more anti-American and closer to its Arab and Muslim neighbors. And this will happen whether or not the Muslim Brotherhood takes the driver’s seat in a new government,”・・・
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/02...

 トルコの親イスラム政権のエルドガン首相もムバラク退陣を求めたぞ。
 これで決まりかなあ。↓
 Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's pledge to stand down in September elections isn't enough and he should leave office immediately, said Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, marking his second intervention in as many days in support of opposition protesters.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487039...

 ところで、ムバラクのアホ親衛隊たる(治安)警察がムバラク支持の暴力的デモ隊・・ラクダ部隊が先導!・・をしつらえて、反ムバラク群衆に殴り込みをかけさせたぞ。
 お見通しの英国のキャメロン首相が、ムバラクを非難したぞ。↓
  The Egyptian government struck back at its opponents on Wednesday, unleashing waves of pro-government provocateurs riding camels and horses and armed with clubs, stones, rocks and knives in and around Tahrir Square in a concerted effort to rout the protesters who have called for an end to President Hosni Mubarak’s near-30-year rule. ・・・
 Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain issued a strong statement deploring the violence, adding what appeared to be a veiled threat. “If it turns out that the regime in any way has been sponsoring and tolerating this violence, that would be completely and utterly unacceptable,” he said. “These are despicable scenes that we are seeing, and they should not be repeated.”・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast...

 どうして、(治安)警察の仕業だと分かるかというと、今までさんざ同じことを彼らがくり返してきたという前歴があるからだ。↓
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/02/w...

 (治安)警察、ちぐはぐもいいとろこで、その直前にインターネットを復旧させちゃてたもんだから、国際ジャーナリスト達への上記暴力的デモ隊の殴り込みも含めて、リアルタイムで、全世界に抗議の嵐とともにその映像等が流れちゃった。↓
 ・・・The attacks on reporters came as Internet access was restored in Egypt for the first time since last week, and many Egyptian bloggers began posting in earnest. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast...  ・・・The government's motivations at this point are truly mysterious. If it did indeed plan this as a sort of street-power move, why would it restore the Internet two hours beforehand, enabling besieged protesters to send a barrage of frantic and chilling tweets from the maelstrom? ・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/02/d...

 反ムバラク群衆の中に女性の姿は圧倒的に少ない。
 どうやら、女性の過半は親ムバラクらしい。
 イスラム原理主義のこれ以上の伸張に女性達が一番懸念を持ってるってさ。
 ただし、イスラム原理主義のこれまでの伸張は、ムバラク政権の下で失業した男が増え、保守化してイスラム回帰が起こったためだってんだから、元はと言えば元凶はムバラクなんだけど・・。↓
 ・・・Though Mubarak has been in power for too long, and violated the human rights of his people, for the average Egyptian woman, there is the potential for things to get far worse. The position of women in Egypt has already declined in the past two decades.
 You could blame it on the stagnant economy, which could of course be blamed on Mubarak’s bad policies. On even a normal day, thousands of men loiter in the streets of downtown Cairo. Young and unemployed, most have never had a normal sexual partner. This kind of young, male frustration manifests itself in religious devotion, aggressive sexual harassment, or both. The Egyptian streets have become increasingly conservative, and women, in turn, have covered up.・・・
 A recent public opinion survey in Egypt showed that 80 percent of men think it is OK for a husband to beat his wife for speaking to another man, one-third of men and women believe that it is OK to resort to violence if a woman refuses sex. Acid attacks and honor killings are already far too commonplace・・・
http://www.doublex.com/blog



#4539(2011.2.4)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4537に関し)英国覇権を奪取しようとして米国は戦間期の対支政策と同じ過ちを1956年スエズ危機の時の対エジプト政策でも犯し「ナショナリスト」への宥和政策をとった。
 その結果は、支那、エジプトで法の支配が確立しないままだ。

<深雪>(同上)

 その民主化が、脱親米・イスラム回帰であることが、興味深い。
 しかも皮肉にも、米国で誕生したネットメディアを使って。
 国民より外国人を優遇するムバラク政権が、国民から嫌われることは当然だ。

<太田>

>国民より外国人を優遇するムバラク政権

 野次(雌)馬的なノリでフィフィさんの言をうのみにしないで欲しいね。
 1952年の王政転覆以来、エジプトには外国人を甚だしく迫害してきた歴史があるからだ。

 まず、エジプトが(名目的にだが)英国から独立した1922年当時、75,000から80,000人を数えた(、ファラオの時代にまでさかのぼるところの、)ユダヤ人人口から、その直後から始まった迫害と、先の大戦後のイスラエルとエジプトの累次の戦争、によって国外に移住するユダヤ人が増えたところ、これに加えてナセルの汎アラブ・ナショナリズムと社会主義政策(外国人保有企業国有化政策)によって、その残りの大部分も財産を没収された上でエジプト国外に移住したため、現在ではエジプトに数百人しかいない。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_i...
 また、上記汎アラブ・ナショナリズムと外国人保有起業国有化政策等によって、スエズ危機後の1957年から1962年にかけて、(ギリシャ(マケドニア)によるエジプト支配にまでさかのぼるところの)ギリシャ人もその70%近くが、やはり財産を没収された上でエジプト国外に移住したために現在では3,000人しかいない。(ただし、このほか帰化ギリシャ人がかなりいる。)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeks_in_Egypt
 更に、(ローマによるエジプト支配にまでさかのぼるところの)イタリア人も、王政が打倒された1952年から国外移住が増え・・やはりその際財産は没収された・・、1940年には60,000人近かったのに、数千人に減少し、現時点でも4,000人弱しかエジプトにはいない。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Egyptians
 ちなみに、これは当然のこととも言えるが、1956年のスエズ危機以降、(19世紀からエジプトと密接な関わりを持った)フランス人と(かつてエジプトを保護国としていた)英国人はほとんどエジプトから姿を消した。(ユダヤ人に関するウィキペディア前掲)
 同様、彼らの財産も没収されている。(典拠省略)

 この結果、エジプト経済は大停滞に陥った。
 社会主義政策自体が停滞をもたらしたわけだが、ユダヤ人、ギリシャ人、イタリア人、フランス人、英国人らの人材流出がこれに拍車をかけた。

 この流れを反転させ始めたのが、ナセルの死亡後大統領になったサダトだったが、サダト暗殺の後、本格的反転をさせ、経済を自由化したのがムバラクだ。
 (なお、エジプトの教育投資は不十分だとこの前指摘したが、それでも、ムバラク政権下で、エジプトの識字率は25%から72%に上昇している。
 皮肉なことに、この政策が、国営企業の減少をもたらし、金持ちの企業家達の懐を潤す一方で、ナセル時代の最大の政権基盤であったところの(かつてその多くが公務員ないし準公務員的な存在であった)給与所得者の政権からの離反を招いたんだな。)
http://www.mysinchew.com/node/52684
http://www.slate.com/id/2283750/

 このような政策転換の結果、定住外国人を含む外国人が、土着の企業家達とともに、再びエジプトで活躍し始めたとしても決して不思議ではない。
 つまり、ムバラクの経済自由化政策が結果として外国人を優遇しているように、フィフィさんのようなエジプトの一般国民の目には映っている可能性があるんだよ。
 しかし、定住外国人の数はほとんど増えていない。
 僕に言わせれば、エジプト政府は、むしろ、没収財産に利子を上乗せしてでも、つまりはホントに優遇策を講じて国外移住外国人達及びその子孫をエジプトに呼び戻すくらいのことをすべきなんだよ。
 そうでもしない限り、エジプトの経済が、真の意味で活性化することはありえないだろうね。

 
 さて、この流れで、エジプト「革命」関連記事の紹介をしとこう。

 エジプト軍部が、親ムバラク「暴徒」の鎮圧に乗り出した。
 (ここでは引用しなかったが、)一方で、反ムバラク勢力へのガサ入れ等も(治安)警察が行ってる。
 まだまだ、情勢は流動的だ。↓
 The Egyptian army intervened this morning in a belated attempt to end the violence that flared overnight in central Cairo as supporters of President Hosni Mubarak attacked anti-government protesters.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/03/egypti...

 しかし、やらせばかりではなく、ムバラク支持層は厳然と存在する。
 この層の分析がなされている。
 簡単に言うと金持ちと貧者が支持層だ。↓
 ・・・Businessmen with rich government contracts, civil servants, security officers, ruling-party activists and poor Egyptians・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
 ・・・Mubarak's supporters out on the street may be on the government payroll, and his natural power base comprises the wealthy Egyptian elites. The president's relatively open, free-market policies have broadened trade・・・with the West and Israel, and made thousands of local businessmen extremely wealthy. Add that to his record of extracting foreign aid from the United States and distributing it to domestic businesses, and there's an entire class of Egyptian entrepreneurs who have benefited greatly from his leadership. Government bigwigs, especially those inside the Interior Ministry, are also staunch Mubarak supporters. Then there appears to be a group of ordinary Egyptians who support Mubarak because they think his leadership can at least stave off Yemen-style chaos or Iran-style theocracy. ・・・Mubarak's support among the working class is very weak. ・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2283750/ 前掲

 ブッシュとオバマの中東政策の比較がなされている。
 比較にならないくらい、オバマの方が精緻かつ洗練された政策だ。↓
 ・・・Throughout American history, policymakers have recognized the tension -- and, in some cases, grappled for some kind of balance -- between our interests and our ideals.・・・
 One difference between Bush and Obama is that Bush tried to pretend there was no such tension. He purveyed, and perhaps convinced himself of, a clever syllogism: tyrannies breed discontent; discontent fosters hatred and terrorism, which threatens U.S. security; therefore, spreading democracy enhances U.S. security; therefore, our interests and our ideals are one.
 By contrast, Obama is acutely aware that these tensions do exist, especially in a post-Cold War world where alliances and schisms are unclear and overlapping.・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2283756/pagenum/all/#p2



#4541(2011.2.5)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 英国防大学の時の同僚で最も英語のできない一人がエジプトから来た大佐であり、その後、公務でカイロを訪れた時に会えないどころか消息不明だったのが彼だ。
 一体何のためにカネかけて留学させてるのか、と呆れ果てたぜ。

<太田>

 それでは、記事の紹介です。

 我々の言葉に置き換えればパキスタンは沖縄化してるところ、エジプトもパキスタンに倣おうとしていると見りゃいいという、穿った、しかし、傾聴に値する指摘がなされている。
 要するに米国等からもっとカネをせしめるためには、形の上でより自由民主主義化することでもって、反米・反イスラエル的民意をより迫力ある形でアッピールするのが一番効果的だってわけだ。↓
 ・・・Pakistan has shown how to combine leverage over the United States and popular anti-American sentiment into a method of extracting ever more foreign assistance from the U.S. government.・・・
 U.S. foreign assistance to Pakistan has gone from $727 million in 2007 to a request of $3.05 billion in 2011. Similarly, Yemen has used its tepid support for U.S. counter-terrorism goals to vault its annual U.S. foreign assistance from $19.4 million in 2008 to a request of $106.6 million this year. ・・・
 The post-Mubarak government could very well follow Pakistan's lead in combining Egypt's inherent anti-Americanism and the U.S. government's critical interests in the region to form a powerful lever to pry more cash out of the U.S. treasury.・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/04/t...

 事実上、副大統領に権力を集中させる形で反ムバラク群衆を宥める方向で米国とエジプト軍部が調整中だとよ。
 その軍部は、国防相御大自身がタハリール広場(Tahrir Square)ににこにこしながら乗り込むことによって、引き続き、反ムバラク群衆に媚びる姿勢を示している。
 また、ムバラク政権としても、不正蓄財が噂される閣僚クラスを見せしめ的に懲らしめて、反ムバラク群衆の怒りを少しでも宥めようとしている。↓
 Egypt's Vice President Omar Suleiman, pressured by a massive turnout by protesters Friday, began to feel for a fresh way out of the crisis, exploring a transition of power in which Hosni Mubarak would give up executive powers but remain a figurehead president until elections are held・・・
 Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi visited the square early Friday with other senior officers, the highest-level government figure to do so, in what appeared to be a bid to boost the army's morale and burnish its image as a neutral mediator in the standoff.
 Arab League chief Amr Moussa, once Mr. Mubarak's foreign minister and a potential presidential candidate, also spent time in the square. Both men were warmly welcomed by protesters.
 The government continued to scramble to siphon off public anger with lower-level responses to longstanding complaints about corruption. Egypt's prosecutor-general slapped a travel ban on former Trade Minister Rachid Muhammad Rachid and froze his bank account, mirroring restrictions placed earlier this week on Habib al-Adly, the regime's former interior minister.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487047...

 だけど、ムバラク一家の「不正蓄財」が700億ドルにものぼるってんだから、どうしょもないね。↓
 President Hosni Mubarak's family fortune could be as much as $70bn (£43.5bn) according to analysis by Middle East experts, with much of his wealth in British and Swiss banks or tied up in real estate in London, New York, Los Angeles and along expensive tracts of the Red Sea coast.・・・
 ・・・most Gulf states required foreigners give a local business partner a 51% stake in start-up ventures. In Egypt, the figure is commonly nearer 20%, but still gives politicians and close allies in the military a source of huge profits with no initial outlay and little risk.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/04/hosni-...

 ところで、エジプト国民のイスラム原理主義度はかくの如くであり、アブナイ限りだ。↓
 ・・・Pew Research surveys of Egyptian attitudes last year produced some startling results. Good: A majority of Egyptians believe democracy is preferable to any other kind of government. Bad: 82 percent support stoning women as punishment for adultery. ・・・
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/03/bo...

 エジプトにおけるイスラム原理主義の担い手たるイスラム同朋会が、いかにいかがわしくおぞましい存在か・・少なくとも存在であったか・・が詳述されている。↓
 ・・・Take, for example, the Brotherhood's claim of rejecting violence while supporting attacks on Israel. Palestinian terrorism, it insists, isn't violence but "resistance."
 Some analysts have compared the Brotherhood's latest iteration to the West's Christian Democratic parties, but that simply doesn't wash. No Christian Democrat ever has claimed that the party's creed is the only legitimate organizing principle for every aspect of personal, communal and political life, as the Muslim Brotherhood has for more than 80 years. Nor has any Christian Democratic party ever made the transnational claims the Brotherhood does -- its ultimate goal being the restoration of an Islamic caliphate stretching from the South China Sea to the Pyrenees.
 There's also no looking away from the fact that the Brotherhood isn't just committed to the Palestinian cause or hostile to political Zionism, which it has been since its founding. It's a thoroughly anti-Semitic organization that has actively distributed Arab-language editions of "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" and actively collaborated with the Nazis during World War II. It also advocates discrimination against women and believes that non-Muslims should not be allowed to hold office.
 Finally, we can't ignore the fact that in the two places where offshoots of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood have managed to gain political power -- Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the wretched cabal in Sudan -- the results have been both bloody and disastrous.・・・
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-...

 ちなみに、今次エジプト「革命」の起源は1789年のフランス革命だと言っているけど、私の1215年のマグナカルタ説にしなさい!↓
 ・・・The mother of them<(=revolutions)> all was, of course, France, 1789,・・・
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a549d58-3095-11e0-9de3-...

 「革命」が自由民主主義化をもたらすかどうかは、あらかじめ組織された反対運動が存在しているかどうかにかかっていると言うんだけど、それはフランス革命起源説に拠った場合の話であって、私のマグナカルタ説に拠った場合は、自由民主主義的観念が権力側と反対運動側双方に十分浸透しているかどうかにかかっていることになる。
 自由民主主義化に成功した例として、ポーランド、メキシコ、台湾があげられているが、ポーランドについてはまだ心許ない限りだし、メキシコは失敗したと見た方がよかろう。
 台湾(と韓国)は成功した。
 なぜかと言えば、自由民主主義的観念が、日本帝国の下で台湾と朝鮮半島の住民に浸透させられていたからだ。↓
 ・・・the hardest part of overthrowing authoritarian regimes is often the day after. “If you look at the most successful transitions -- Poland, Mexico, Taiwan -- they’ve been long hauls,” said Lucan Way, a political scientist at the University of Toronto. “You want there to be established oppositions, and that doesn’t happen in a two-week period.”
 ・・・the Authoritarian International was emboldened by the disappointing performances of the governments that were installed by the color revolutions -- the Rose Revolution in Georgia, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/middleeast...

 ボクはエジプト「革命」は中長期的には成功すると見ているわけだが、それはどうしてでしょう?
 誰か、答えてみてちょうだい。



#4543(2011.2.6)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4541に関し)1883年から1936年まで続いたエジプト保護領統治で、英国は原住民の医療、農業、教育等について何にもしなかった。
http://www.touregypt.net/hbritish.htm
 とにかく、日本の植民地統治は、比べようもないほど良心的だった。

 エジプトは定住外国人に対しひどいことしたけど観光客たる外国人にはヨイショしてきたしそうするよう国が「強制」してきた。
http://www.csmonitor.com/Books/chapter-and-verse/2...
 目先の利益>長期的利益、と錯覚するのはありがちのことだけどね。

<太田>

≫ボクはエジプト「革命」は中長期的には成功すると見ているわけだが、それはどうしてでしょう? 誰か、答えてみてちょうだい。≪(コラム#4541。太田)

 誰も答えてくれないんで、自分で軽ーく答えとくか。
 第一には、人類は、過去の歴史から学び、どんどん賢明になってきていることだ。
 エジプト人だってその例外じゃないだろってこと。
 自由民主主義の普遍的価値を彼らが「信じている」ことは間違いないと「信じる」べきさ。↓
 ・・・They do not seek a Chinese-style, totalitarian, market Marxism; they crave not the kleptocracy of Russia; they evince no desire to live in a caliphate.・・・
 For all its imperfections, it is for liberal democracy that they yearn.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/0...

 ちょっと脱線。
 この英国人の手になるコラムで、以下のくだりが出てくるが、イギリスの自由民主主義化の歩みを16世紀の「暴君」ヘンリー8世から解き明かすってのは初めてお目にかかったな。
 もっともこれ、米国の19世紀の南北戦争を持ち出して、米国をおちょくるためには、13世紀のマグナカルタあたりまで遡っちゃ、ちょっとやり過ぎだって思ったんだろうね。↓
 ・・・Anyone with any sense of history knows the road to liberal democracy can be bumpy and bloody. Britain took centuries to progress from tyrant kings such as Henry VIII to representative parliamentary government. Americans killed each other in a civil war which left more of them dead than any other conflict. ・・・

 脱線ついでにもう一つ。
 このコラムの次のくだりは間違ってるぞ。
 'genuinely established democracies' なんてそもそも存在しないという前提で話を進めよう。
 先の大戦で、自由民主主義(的)国家である英国と日本が戦ったじゃん。
 (なお、当時の米国は文字通りの人種差別国家だったから、自由民主主義(的)国家とすら言い難いって、あえて一応言っとこう。)↓
 ・・・There has never been an armed conflict between two genuinely established democracies.・・・

 第二は、第一と関連してるが、イスラム的な自由民主主義の繁栄国家たるトルコ・・人口もほぼ同じ・・という範例がすぐ近くに出現するに至っているってことだ。
 イスラム同朋会とトルコの与党とは友党だってんだからね。↓
 ・・・Today, with similarly sized populations of about 80 million, Turkey has an economy that is nearly four times the size of Egypt’s. ・・・
 Turkey’s ability to thrive as a predominantly Muslim country that maintains diplomatic relations -- though chilly -- with Israel is one that American officials would like to see other Muslim nations develop. ・・・
 There is a great deal of ideological compatibility between the A.K.P. and the Muslim Brotherhood,・・・
 Perhaps, but in the end that could be a plus rather than a minus. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast...

 (蛇足ながら、Muslem Brotherhood をボクはイスラム同朋会と訳しているが、一般にはムスリム同朋会と訳されている。Muslimってイスラム教徒のこと↓
 A Muslim or Moslem is an adherent of the religion of Islam.・・・ 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim
だから、ボクの訳でも間違いじゃないんだからね。)

 第三には、エジプトは、イランのように石油がないし、現に米国等の欧米諸国から多大なる援助をもらっていることから、エジプトを、徹底した反米・反イスラエル国家にするわけにはいかないし、真正イスラム原理主義国家にするわけにもいかない、ということをエジプト国民の大部分が自覚しているであろうことさ。

 さて、「革命」の成り行きだ。
 ムバラク政権は、(与党の幹部の総とっかえを断行(引用しなかった)して反権力側に媚びつつも、反権力運動家の令状なしの逮捕を続けている。↓
  Vice President Omar Suleiman of Egypt has won the blessing of both the Mubarak and Obama administrations as the leader of a political transition toward democracy in Egypt. But human rights advocates say that so far Mr. Suleiman, who also is in charge of Egyptian intelligence, has shown no sign of discontinuing the practice of extra-legal detention of political opponents -- a hallmark of President Hosni Mubarak’s nearly 30-year rule that is a central grievance of the protesters in the streets. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast...

 ボクが、英国防大学の時のエジプト人同僚とその後没交渉になってるって前に書いたが、米国に留学等でやってきたエジプト軍人は山といるが、米軍人との関係も希薄なもんらしいね。
 また、先般の反権力側への暴徒の殴り込みに実はエジプト軍部も関与してたらしい。↓
 ・・・Although the Pentagon has long promoted its close ties to the Egyptian military, which receives $1.3 billion annually in United States aid, top officials concede that neither Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates nor Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have especially deep relationships with their Egyptian counterparts. ・・・
 ・・・the military’s leadership was orchestrating events, and had been involved in allowing attacks against the protesters by pro-Mubarak forces on horseback and camels -- but not by the army, so as not to taint it in the public eye. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast...

 ところで、深雪さんのこの前のつぶやき(コラム#4539)中、ネットメディアの話は、まんざら間違いじゃない。
 エジプトで反権力側の意識の醸成にITが貢献したのは事実だからだ。↓
 Mr. Said, a 28-year-old Egyptian businessman, was pulled from an Internet cafe in Alexandria last June by two plainclothes police officers, who witnesses say then beat him to death in the lobby of a residential building. Human rights advocates said he was killed because he had evidence of police corruption. ・・・
 Within five days of his death, an anonymous human rights activist created a Facebook page -- We Are All Khaled Said ? that posted cellphone photos from the morgue of his battered and bloodied face, and YouTube videos played up contrasting pictures of him happy and smiling with the graphic images from the morgue.・・・
 Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and cellphones made it easy for human rights advocates to get out the news and for people to spread and discuss their outrage about Mr. Said’s death in a country where freedom of speech and the right to assemble were limited and the government monitored newspapers and state television. ・・・
 The protests continued, first every week or so, and then sporadically last fall, until Tunisia fell and then the April 6 Youth Movement Facebook group and the We Are All Khaled Said Facebook page began inviting Egyptians to a protest on Jan. 25. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast...

 しかし、騒擾が始まってからはITはその役割を終えたに等しいこともまた事実のようだ。↓
 ・・・the biggest demonstrations to date occurred on a day when the Internet was down. “There wasn’t any Twitter. There wasn’t any Facebook・・・This didn’t have anything to do with Twitter and Facebook・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/opinion/06rich.h...

 これで最後だけど、かくも有名になったタハリール広場の詳しい図が載ってたよ。↓
 Diagram of the clashes between pro- and antigovernment demonstrators in Tahrir Square.・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/02/03/worl...



#4545(2011.2.7)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4543に関し)トルコとエジプトは一人当たり所得で4倍の開きがあるとはね。
 トルコもかつてのエジプトの支配者だけど、ギリシャ、イタリア、トルコ、英国という歴代の支配国を一つでもエジプトが見返せる日がいつか訪れるだろうか。

<太田>

 ついで、エジプト「革命」関連です。

 副大統領とイスラム同朋会等との話し合いが開始され、政権側が若干の譲歩を示した。↓
 The main Egyptian opposition groups eased up on their insistence that President Hosni Mubarak step down immediately, agreeing instead on Sunday to join in talks toward overhauling the country's political system at a more gradual pace while Mubarak remains in office.
 The shift suggested that Mubarak and his allies may have succeeded in defusing the fiercest of cries from opponents who had insisted that the president resign as a precondition for any talks. It followed the clearest signals yet from the Obama administration that its call for a quick transition in Egypt did not include a demand that Mubarak step aside before elections this fall.
 Among those who joined for the first time in talks with Omar Suleiman, Mubarak's newly appointed vice president, were leaders from the banned Muslim Brotherhood movement, along with a loose coalition of political parties, intellectuals and protest organizers. Suleiman said the government would agree to consider broad changes, including constitutional amendments and a possible end to Egypt's three-decade-old state of emergency. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 エジプトでムバラクとその一味がどんなに経済的に甘い汁を吸っているかが描かれている。↓
 ・・・It is estimated that around a thousand families maintain control of vast areas of the economy. This business class sought to consolidate itself and protect its wealth through political office. The National Democratic party was their primary vehicle for doing so. This alliance of money and politics became flagrant in recent years when a number of businessmen became government ministers with portfolios that clearly overlapped with their private interests.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/0...

 連中が甘い汁を吸う、打ち出の小槌的手口が説明されている。↓
 ・・・State-controlled banks acted as kingmakers, extending loans to families who supported the government but denying credit to viable businesspeople who lacked the right political pedigree.
 ・・・government officials sold state-owned land to politically connected families for low prices. They also allowed foreign conglomerates to buy state-owned companies for small amounts. In exchange, he said, they received kickbacks.
 At the same time, the government required foreign investors to form joint ventures with Egyptian firms. Families with close ties to the governing party formed the Egyptian half of the lucrative joint ventures. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/world/middleeast...

 タハリール広場の秩序、そして何よりも清潔さがこそ「革命」的であり、これがエジプト「革命」の前途に希望が持てる理由だ。↓
 ・・・ In Cairo where dust is the city’s very element! Why,・・・ this Sisyphean sweeping? The reply: just decided to do it. “Never in a million years would that have happened before,・・・
 To accept the Mubarak-or-chaos argument is a form of disrespect to the civility and capacity of Tahrir Square. ・・・
 The Western fiction・・・ is “that somehow Arabs are not really ready for democracy, that maybe they have horns.” It is time to overcome that fiction and look at what Tahrir says about culture emerging, technology-sped, from a deep sleep. ・・・
 ・・・early in the uprising, people formed a human chain around the Egyptian Museum to protect the nation’s culture. It was one in the stream of acts that have dignified Egypt. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opinion/07iht-ed...

 徐々にエジプトが騒擾状態から正常状態へと復帰しつつある。↓
 ・・・It is almost as if there are two Egypts -- the one full of revolutionary fervor inside Tahrir Square, and the one around it, in which the people are deeply sympathetic and grateful to the protesters, but would like to get back to normal.・・・
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2046...



#4547(2011.2.8)

 エジプト「革命」も小休止だな。
 北朝鮮とエジプトとのえもいわれぬ関係が詳述されている。↓
 ・・・North Korea over the years has trained Egyptian pilots, sold missiles to Egypt, provided the technology for Egypt to fabricate its own missiles, and turned its embassy in Cairo into the hub for military sales throughout the region.・・・
 Mubarak visited Pyongyang three times in the 1980s and a fourth time in 1990 in search of military and commercial deals.・・・
 “Samiris is the biggest foreign investor in North Korea,”・・・
 Orascom Telecom has provided mobile phone service in troubled countries from Tunisia to Iraq to Pakistan, while Orascom Construction has had contracts for building US military facilities in Afghanistan.
 At the same time, Egypt has counted on North Korea for military aid in the 1970s and began purchasing Scud missiles from North Korea around the time that Mubarak became president. North Korea also provided the technology for Egypt to manufacture missiles on it own.・・・
 North Korea’s embassy in Cairo is headquarters for the North’s Middle East military sales network and ranks as the North’s “most important embassy” after its embassy in Beijing.・・・
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2011/0...

 上記記事に登場するサワリス、タハリール広場にも現れ、自由民主主義の信奉者を演じつつ、ムバラクの延命に力を貸そうとしている。
 エジプトきっての企業家でエジプト少数派のコプト派信者だけのことがあって目端のきくことこの上もないね。↓
 ・・・ Sawiris・・・a member of Egypt's Coptic Christian Church・・・has visited protesters in Tahrir Square and sympathized with their cause, he has endorsed Mubarak's desire to remain in office until September.・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...



#4549(2011.2.9)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 1991年にエジプトを(公務で)再訪した時、軍事関係施設見学で北朝鮮の影が気になったが、米国はエジプトの北朝鮮との関係を断つことすらできなかったということだ。
 我が買弁外務省はむろん傍観してただけなんだろ。

<太田>

 私の声が聞こえたかのように、関係記事がアジアタイムスに出てた。↓
 <1970年頃、北朝鮮はエジプトに戦闘機操縦教官を送り込んだ。時の空軍参謀長はムバラク。↓>
 ・・・The story goes back to about 1970, and maybe earlier, when Hosni Mubarak, as commander of the Egyptian air force, got North Korea to send pilots to train Egyptians in preparation for the 1973 war with Israel. That engagement turned out to have been one of the great military humiliations of modern Middle East history when they Israelis turned back the invading Egyptians several days after they launched the fourth Middle East War, aka the Yom Kippur war, in 1973.
 One might have thought that debacle would not have been good for either Egypt or Mubarak's career, but actually it had the opposite effect. ・・・
 <大統領になったムバラクは米国と北朝鮮をエジプトの友邦にした。↓>
 From the outset, Mubarak managed to perform a truly magician's act of diplomatic trickery. ・・・
 Mubarak was firmly on the side of the US in the Arab world - and totally on the side of North Korea in Northeast Asia.
 <1980年頃から北朝鮮はエジプトにスカッド・ミサイル等の武器を提供。
 ムバラクは北朝鮮を4度も訪問。↓>
 The real story began when North Korea around 1980 or so began purveying Soviet-style Scud B missiles to Egypt along with a lot of other weapons and technology. The dealmaking was so extensive that North Korea's embassy in Cairo soon became its central base for operations around the region, the hub through which it made sales pitches to a likely assortment of other Arab regimes. ・・・
 All the while, Mubarak was importing ever more military gear, notably missiles, from North Korea while the North Koreans tutored the Egyptians on how to build their own missiles and other useful items. Egypt was getting far, far more from the US, enough to make it the second-largest recipient of American largesse after Israel, but Mubarak was grateful enough to have visited North Korea four times from 1983 to 1990. ・・・
 <だから、エジプトが韓国と国交を樹立したのは、何とようやく1995年のこと。↓>
 Mubarak, after the death of Kim Il-sung(金日成), did agree in 1995 to form relations with South Korea - but that was well after every country in the eastern bloc had gone for a two-Korea diplomatic relationship and South Korea had formed diplomatic relations with China ・・・
 <サワリス(コラム#4547)の会社は、北朝鮮での通信、建設の分野で大活躍。↓>
 Egypt's biggest conglomerate, the Orascom group, to provide North Korea with its one and only mobile phone network and also to build a whole lot of structures that Kim Jong-il badly wants by the time of the 100th anniversary in 2012 of the birth of Kim Il-sung on April 15 . ・・・
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MB09Dg01.html

 エジプト「革命」、また息を吹き返したぞ。
 きっかけになったのはこのTV番組。↓
  The television host narrated the pictures of the dead protesters on the screen, young men with sweet smiles whom she compared to roses in a garden.
“They went out only for the sake of Egypt,” said the host, Mona el-Shazly. “They said what the previous generations couldn’t do, we can do.”
Her guest was the newly freed Google executive and activist Wael Ghonim. He is a tech-savvy organizer of the antigovernment protests, secretly detained by the authorities as demonstrations gathered force. But faced with the toll of the uprising, he was overwhelmed.
 He got up from the table in the studio and walked off camera while Ms. Shazly took out her earpiece and followed him.
 That episode on Monday night of “Ten P.M.,” broadcast on a popular independent Egyptian satellite channel, appeared to undercut two weeks of relentless state propaganda and inject new vigor into a protest movement that some supporters feared had begun to wane.
 Mr. Ghonim, emotive and handsome, quickly became the movement’s reluctant icon, and Ms. Shazly, poised and defiant, its champion. When protesters converged on Tahrir Square on Tuesday -- in numbers greater than at any other time during the two-week uprising -- Mr. Ghonim and Ms. Shazly were the ones many came to cheer. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/world/middleeast...

 ついに女・子供までタハリール広場に詰めかけ始めたとよ。
 カイロ大学法学部も「革命」にエールを送る声明を出した。↓
 ・・・It was clear that new faces, including a much larger proportion of women and children, had decided to venture into the square for the first time -- perhaps inspired by the gripping television interview of Wael Ghonim, the Google executive and activist who was released from prison on Monday after being detained for 12 days. ・・・
 In another sign that momentum may be swinging back toward the protesters' side, several hundred professors from Cairo University marched into the square, chanting, "Down with Mubarak." Earlier in the day, the university's law faculty issued a statement announcing its "complete support for the January 25 revolution" and calling on Mubarak to "comply with the will of the nation" and qualified experts to devise a new, more democratic constitution. ・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/08/t...

 前も触れたように、タハリール広場は新しいエジプト人を生み出している。↓
 ・・・People are actually articulating: "They said we were divided, extreme, ignorant, fanatic - well here we are: diverse, inclusive, hospitable, generous, sophisticated, creative and witty."・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-123937...



#4551(2011.2.10)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 僕のカイロの小学校、外国人が多かったがエジプト人の生徒も少なくなかった。
 だけど親しくなった子はいなかった。
 家の召使いや運転手とだってそうだ。
 英国留学の時の話は前にした。
 おとなしく顔の見えないエジプト人!

<太田>

 それでは、記事の紹介です。
 まずは、エジプト「革命」関連から。

 国営企業を中心にストがエジプト全国に広がっている。
 政府と反対勢力との対話はストップした。↓
 ・・・the unrest is spreading as some of the largest demonstrations yet against President Hosni Mubarak were joined by labour strikes across the country, including on the Suez canal, in the city of Alexandria and by public transport workers in Cairo.
 A prominent member of a key opposition group, the Council of Wise Men, said negotiations had "essentially come to an end"・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/09/egypt-...

 国営TVや国営新聞の論調が反対勢力寄りに変わりつつある。
 それに対し、政府側はクーデターの危険迫ると脅し始めた。↓
 ・・・state-run television and newspapers changed their tone virtually overnight and began reporting favorably about the demonstrations.
 For its part, the government adopted a harder line in its rhetoric, issuing dark warnings and an ultimatum. Vice President Omar Suleiman, in remarks carried by the official Middle East News Agency, said protesters had a choice - either commit to a "dialogue" with the government or face the likelihood of a "coup." ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 米国はエジプトの1981年以来の非常事態宣言を解除するよう求めたけれど回答はノー。↓
 Vice President Biden delivered the Obama administration's most pointed appeal on the issue this week when he urged Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman to immediately repeal the long-standing emergency rules.
The Egyptian reply was the same as it has been since 1981: Not yet.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 エジプトの副大統領自身がノーをコンファーム。エジプトはまだ民主主義を受け入れる準備ができていないと語った。↓
 ・・・while Mr. Suleiman was conciliatory in the early days of the protests, his recent public statements have been chilling. He said he does not believe it is time to lift the three-decade-old emergency law that has been used to suppress and imprison opposition leaders. Most alarming, he said the country’s “culture” is not yet ready for democracy. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/09/opinion/09wed1.h...

 軍部は、中立を装いつつ、実際には、最近、反対勢力の弾圧に乗り出してた。↓
 The Egyptian military has secretly detained hundreds and possibly thousands of suspected government opponents since mass protests against President Hosni Mubarak began, and at least some of these detainees have been tortured,・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/09/egypt-...

 軍部は特権的地位をムバラクの息子ガマルを中心とする体制内資本主義的「改革」派によって脅かされていたが、2008年から反撃を開始していた。↓
 ・・・Th<e Egyptian military's> structure of economic power and patronage came under threat from the attempts of Gamal Mubarak,・・・
 ・・・the military had started putting the brakes on Gamal's reforms in 2008. ・・・
 <「革命」後の新体制下、軍部を中心として、かつてのナセル的社会主義への揺り戻しがあるのではないか。↓>
 "I don't think we are going to have neoliberal, Western-style economic reform in Egypt. I think there is going to be a return to some aspect of state-led development so the part of the economy that is controlled by the military may well be reinforced for some time."・・・
 <軍部は、悪いことをすべて旧体制内のガマル派や警察に押しつけ、新体制における中心的役割を維持せんと図っている。↓>
 ・・・the military・・・, basking in popularity and general support while other elements of the regime that are, in fact, subordinate to the military, absorb popular anger,・・・I would be very surprised if anyone -- even the Muslim Brotherhood -- is going to mess with the military for the foreseeable future even if there is really a democratic transition."・・・
 <いずれにせよ、このところ、軍の戦う組織としての劣化が進んでいる。↓>
 ・・・there has been a severe degradation of the Egyptian military's fighting capabilities. ・・・
 <米国の軍人とエジプトの軍人とは自由に交流することを禁じられていることもあり、米国の軍を通じたエジプト軍への軍事的・政治的影響力は必ずしも大きくない。↓>
 U.S. officers are not allowed to contact their Egyptian counterparts directly by phone or even e-mail; everything is routed through unit commanders via the Minister of Defense. And forget about fraternizing in those social clubs -- as U.S. officers do with their counterparts in Jordan, which is regarded as having a first-class military.・・・
 <結局、新体制で生き残り、その中心的役割を担おうとする軍部の目的は達成される可能性が高い。↓>
 "I think they'll get Mubarak's scalp, at least symbolically, and they'll get probably a little bit of a thicker veil of civilian governance -- but I think that's as much as they're going to get." The military will still be at the helm.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2046...



#4553(2011.2.11)

 辞任報道が流れてからムバラクが辞任を否定したので怒り狂う群衆。
 いよいよ「面白く」なってきたエジプト情勢。↓
 ・・・the soldiers have to decide whether Egypt is revisiting 1952, to create a supposedly better version of the hybrid military-civilian state that was set up by the Free Officers, or going back to the revolution of 1919, to renew the British-style parliamentary democracy that was created after that upheaval. It is a momentous decision.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/1...



#4555(2011.2.12)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 ムバラク大統領辞任。
 太田コラム振興のため密かに彼の頑迷さにエールを送ってたけど、ここはエジプト国民にお目出度うと言いたい。
 それにしても、日本のマスゴミ電子版、北朝鮮にも日本のODAにも触れず。

 本日から、「エジプト「革命」」を「エジプト革命」と呼ぼう。
 同国の憲法規定が軍部によって一部無視されたからだ。↓
 ・・・The military council is expected to quickly suspend both houses of parliament and rule with the civilian head of the supreme constitutional court for a transitional period of just a few months.
 A free and fair presidential election has been promised for September.・・・
  Egypt's military said it would not act as a substitute for a "legitimate" government.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/11/egypt-...
 <つまり、議会の議長じゃなく、国防相が権力を掌握した。↓>
 ・・the fact that the army has already put the defense minister in charge shows little deference to the constitution, which states that the speaker of the parliament should take over when the president steps down.
 There will be few complaints -- Fathi Surur, who has been parliament speaker since 1990, is probably one of the last people most opposition leaders would want running the government.・・・
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-f...

 オバマ政権は、エジプト革命と1998年のインドネシアの革命とをダブらせてたんだね。
 今後、インドネシア革命のように事態がうまく進行すれば、それは、オバマ政権の見識・・オバマのインドネシアでの幼少体験を含む・・の高さを示すものである以上に、ムバラクのイスラム原理主義勢力等への対処ぶりの正しさを示すものでもあることになろう。
 その場合は、ムバラクももって瞑すべしだね。↓
 ・・・<US> National Security Council officials in the past week have been discussing with foreign-policy experts similarities between Egypt's revolution and Indonesia's・・・the 1998 overthrow of Indonesian dictator Suharto・・・
 Key issues U.S. officials are tackling in Egypt, and which were prominent in Indonesia, are how to balance an expected rise in support for Islamists and the continued role of the military.・・・
 President Barack Obama experienced the early years of Mr. Suharto's authoritarian rule while living in Jakarta as a boy. He later wrote in his memoirs about the culture of fear that pervaded Indonesian society at the time. Mr. Obama, in a speech Friday, compared Egypt's revolution to Indonesia's.
 Both Messrs. Suharto and Mubarak had long military careers and presided over three decades of authoritarian rule with the backing of a powerful army. The octogenarian leaders received generous support from Washington and ruthlessly suppressed communist and Islamist movements. The uprisings that targeted them were driven by youthful populations frustrated in part by corruption and a sclerotic economy.
 In the end, both Messrs. Suharto and Mubarak left only after being pressured by their own militaries while handing over power to close confidantes. In Mr. Suharto's case, Vice President B.J. Habibie; in Mr. Mubarak's, long-serving spy chief Omar Suleiman.・・・
 ・・・post-Suharto governments were particularly successful because they co-opted Islamist parties that emerged following the dictator's fall.・・・
 Indonesia waited more than a year to hold an election, giving secular parties time to form.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487043...

 スイス政府は、ムバラク等がスイスに預けてある資産の凍結を表明した。
 もっとも、ムバラク等が世界各地に持ってる隠しネコババ資産のほんの一部だろうが・・。↓
 ・・・ "I can confirm that Switzerland has frozen possible assets of the former Egyptian president with immediate effect," a <Switzerland's> foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters on Friday. ・・・
 In October, the Swiss Parliament passed the Restitution of Illicit Assets Act, which took effect on Feb. 1. ・・・
http://www.slate.com/id/2284862/
 ・・・The Swiss move followed a similar decision last month regarding any assets held by Tunisia’s former ruling Ben Ali family and its followers, as well as Laurent Gbagbo, president of the Ivory Coast. ・・・
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f5c8422e-3631-11e0-9b3b-...



#4557(2011.2.13)

<太田>(ツイッター)

 <昨日、1800過ぎ、>TBSテレビでエジプト革命緊急特集をやってい<た>。
 日本在住のエジプト人2名が出演してい<た>。
 今後、日本人がエジプトを少しでもより身近な存在と感じてくれることを望む。
 イランは喜びイスラエルはがっくりきてるが・・。

<foxmap>(ツイッターより)

 エジプトもスーダン南部独立も果てしなく遠い国の出来事にしか感じられない私って・・・。

<太田>

 宗主国サマ米国の属国である日本の我々米国臣民・・高級奴隷と言うべきか・・は、よほど努力しない限り、日本を除く世界は、(我が宗主国サマを含め、)若干の程度の差こそあれ、おしなべて、果てしなく遠いところになっちゃってるはずですよ。

<太田>

 それでは、記事の紹介です。

 広義のエジプト革命関係が1件です。
 エジプトの自由将校団による1952年の革命はCIA作演出だった。
 大英帝国の遺産を解消しようという下心があったとしか思えないな。
 1958年のスエズ危機への米国の介入によって、英国のエジプトへの影響力は根絶されることになる。
 1958年の血腥いイラク革命の話も出てきてるよ。↓
 ・・・The Free Officers received financial and logistical support from the CIA through a covert program known as "Project FF" (which reportedly stood for "fat fucker," in reference to Farouk). The officers overthrew Farouk <,King of Egypt,>・・・ and his government in July 1952・・・
 ・・・<In >1958・・・seven-term prime minister of Iraq's monarchical system, Nuri al-Said・・・was stripped of his disguise, impaled alive, and left on public view in the rotting sunlight・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/11/i...



#4559(2011.2.14)

 エジプト軍部は、皆さんご承知の発表を行った。↓
 ・・・The ruling military・・・suspended the constitution and said a committee will draw up amendments that will be put to a referendum. It also dissolved the widely discredited parliament, elected in a tainted ballot last year.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/13/egypt-...
 ・・・The leaders of the armed forces, however, said they would only keep power for six months, or until new elections can be held. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 何と言っても本日の記事の白眉はこれ。
 エジプト革命の舞台裏と進行について、よくまあこれほどの記事が短期間の取材で書けるもんだ。↓
 <2005年頃のケファヤ(もうたくさんだ)運動から話は始まった。↓>
 ・・・The Egyptian revolt was years in the making. Ahmed Maher, a 30-year-old civil engineer and a leading organizer of the April 6 Youth Movement, first became engaged in a political movement known as Kefaya, or Enough, in about 2005. Mr. Maher and others organized their own brigade, Youth for Change. But they could not muster enough followers; arrests decimated their leadership ranks, and many of those left became mired in the timid, legally recognized opposition parties. “What destroyed the movement was the old parties,” said Mr. Maher, who has since been arrested four times.
 <この運動の担い手達はストの多発に目をつけ、労働運動と提携。↓>
 By 2008, many of the young organizers had retreated to their computer keyboards and turned into bloggers, attempting to raise support for a wave of isolated labor strikes set off by government privatizations and runaway inflation.
 After a strike that March in the city of Malhalla, Egypt, Mr. Maher and his friends called for a nationwide general strike for April 6. To promote it, they set up a Facebook group that became the nexus of their movement, which they were determined to keep independent from any of the established political groups. Bad weather turned the strike into a nonevent in most places, but in Malhalla a demonstration by the workers’ families led to a violent police crackdown ― the first major labor confrontation in years.
 <次いで、チュニジアの運動と提携し、情報交換しながらそれぞれが運動を進める。↓>
 Just a few months later, after a strike in the Tunisian city of Hawd el-Mongamy, a group of young online organizers followed the same model, setting up what became the Progressive Youth of Tunisia. The organizers in both countries began exchanging their experiences over Facebook. The Tunisians faced a more pervasive police state than the Egyptians, with less latitude for blogging or press freedom, but their trade unions were stronger and more independent. “We shared our experience with strikes and blogging,” Mr. Maher recalled.
 <そして、非暴力抵抗運動について研究。ユーゴのミロシェヴィッチ政権を打倒したオトポール(Otpor)運動、米国の政治学者ジーン・シャープ(Gene Sharp。1928年〜。オックスフォード大で博士号取得、MIT名誉教授。「非暴力のマキャベリ」、「非暴力戦争理論のクラウゼヴィッツ」と称される http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Sharp)に最も影響を受ける。↓>
 For their part, Mr. Maher and his colleagues began reading about nonviolent struggles. They were especially drawn to a Serbian youth movement called Otpor, which had helped topple the dictator Slobodan Milosovic by drawing on the ideas of an American political thinker, Gene Sharp. The hallmark of Mr. Sharp’s work is well-tailored to Mr. Mubark’s Egypt: He argues that nonviolence is a singularly effective way to undermine police states that might cite violent resistance to justify repression in the name of stability.
 <何名かはユーゴに渡ってオトポール運動の活動家達から直接学んだ。↓>
 The April 6 Youth Movement modeled its logo ― a vaguely Soviet looking red and white clenched fist―after Otpor’s, and some of its members traveled to Serbia to meet with Otpor activists.
 <彼ら在エジプト活動家達が、もう一つ影響を受けたのが、カタール在住のエジプト人活動家達(マルクス!)・・彼らもやはりシャープの影響を受け、その教えを理論化していた・・であり、その理論を実践化すること(レーニン!)に努めた。↓>
 Another influence, several said, was a group of Egyptian expatriates in their 30s who set up an organization in Qatar called the Academy of Change, which promotes ideas drawn in part on Mr. Sharp’s work. One of the group’s organizers, Hisham Morsy, was arrested during the Cairo protests and remained in detention.
“The Academy of Change is sort of like Karl Marx, and we are like Lenin,” said Basem Fathy, another organizer who sometimes works with the April 6 Youth Movement and is also the project director at the Egyptian Democratic Academy, which receives grants from the United States and focuses on human rights and election-monitoring. During the protesters’ occupation of Tahrir Square, he said, he used his connections to raise about $5,100 from Egyptian businessmen to buy blankets and tents.
 <約1年前にこの運動に加わったのが、在エジプトのグーグルのマーケティング担当幹部のゴーニム(Wael Ghonim)(コラム#4549)だった。そして、この運動はモハメッド・エルバラダイ(Mohamed ElBaradei)を担ぎ出した。↓>
 Then, about a year ago, the growing Egyptian youth movement acquired a strategic ally, Wael Ghonim, a 31-year-old Google marketing executive. Like many others, he was introduced into the informal network of young organizers by the movement that came together around Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel-prize winning diplomat who returned to Egypt a year ago to try to jump-start its moribund political opposition.
 <ゴーニムは、マーケティング手法を用い、フェースブック・グループを立ち上げ、警察不祥事を暴こうとした青年が警察の手で拷問死したことへの糾弾運動を始めた。↓>
 Mr. Ghonim had little experience in politics but an intense dislike for the abusive Egyptian police, the mainstay of the government’s power. He offered his business savvy to the cause. “I worked in marketing, and I knew that if you build a brand you can get people to trust the brand,” he said.
 The result was a Facebook group Mr. Ghonim set up: We Are All Khalid Said, after a young Egyptian who was beaten to death by police. Mr. Ghonim ― unknown to the public, but working closely with Mr. Maher of the April 6 Youth Movement and a contact from Mr. ElBaradei’s group ― said that he used Mr. Said’s killing to educate Egyptians about democracy movements. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/world/middleeast...

 ところで、上記記事に、まだ行政府の関係スタッフの大部分がエジプト「革命」の成り行きが見えず、また、ムバラク失権を恐れていた、1月28日1530の時点で、関係スタッフ会議に突然オバマ大統領が姿を現し、「革命」が成功するであろうこととムバラク失権を図るべきこととを語ったと出ている。
 私が同趣旨の予言をしたのは、1月29日夕刻のコラム#4527(「軍は騒擾者達を銃撃することはなく、エジプト「革命」は成功し、ムバラクは失権するだろう。」)のことなので、時差を考えると、私はオバマより1日強い遅れたことになる。
 情報が公開メディアしかなかったにしては私はよくやったのか、それとも、関係スタッフの大部分が奏でる「雑音」に耳を貸さなかったオバマがやはり偉大なのか。
 結論。
 オバマは偉大。



#4561(2011.2.15)

 ムバラク一家は、報道されてるほど、国のカネ、ネコババしてないってよ。↓
 ・・・“Compared to other kleptocracies, I don’t think the Mubaraks rank all that high,” says one Western envoy in Cairo, asking not to be named on a subject that remains highly sensitive. “There has been corruption, [but] as far as I know it’s never been personally attached to the president and Mrs. Mubarak. They don’t live an elaborate lifestyle.”・・・
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/02/13/the-tragedy-of-...

 チュニジア、エジプトの次は、イランか、イェーメンか、バーレーンか。↓
 Violent protests erupted in Iran, Yemen and Bahrain on Monday・・・
 <イランでのデモが一番大規模。↓>
 Some witnesses said the Monday protests drew more than 100,000 people.
 The demonstration had been called more than a week in advance by Mir Hossein Mousavi, the de facto leader of the opposition movement and former presidential challenger. Mousavi was placed under house arrest Monday, opposition Web sites said, joining another opposition leader, former parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi, whose house arrest was reported by the sites Thursday. ・・・
 <イランに関しては、クリントン米国務長官がデモ側を支持し体制側を批判。↓>
 ・・・Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton praised the Iranian demonstrators, saying White House officials "very clearly and directly support the aspirations" of the protesters. She also accused the Tehran government of hypocrisy for claiming to support pro-democracy demonstrators in Egypt while squelching dissent at home. ・・・
 <シーア派が多数を占めているバーレーン。↓>
 Bahrain is considered more vulnerable than most other regimes in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, because of its restive 70 percent Shiite majority, which has long chafed under the nation's Sunni monarchy.
 <しかも、石油が枯渇しかけているバーレーンはアブナそう。↓>
 But as the first Persian Gulf nation to discover oil, and the first to be running out of it, Bahrain confronts problems that other gulf nations may also eventually confront, including a growing fiscal deficit and an expanding population that cannot find jobs・・・
 <クウェートもサウディ東部もシーア派が多数。↓>
 ・・・You could see Bahrain having an impact on Kuwait and the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia," where there is a Shiite majority・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 はたまた、アルジェリアか。↓
 ・・・Now it could be Algeria's turn to free itself from autocratic rule.・・・
 <引用しなかったが、長期の非常事態宣言下、及び長期いすわる大統領、と、一見チュニジアとエジプトの革命前の状況と酷似。
 だけど、デモの規模はまだ小さい。↓>
 About 2,000 demonstrated in the capital, Algiers, on Feb. 12, and another protest is planned for Saturday, Feb. 19.・・・
 <だけど、内戦のトラウマから回復してないので革命は起こらない?>
 Despite the fervor on the streets of Algeria, Western intelligence agencies believe that Algerians, exhausted from years of civil war, might be unwilling to face a potentially bloody assault should they revolt against their government. The country suffered massive losses in a war between Islamic groups and government forces that lasted from 1991 to 2002 and killed about 200,000 people. The conventional wisdom of intelligence agencies has proved of little use this past month, however: just a few weeks ago, Western intelligence agencies said there was only a small chance that Mubarak would be driven from office by the huge protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square. Now we know how wrong they were.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2048...



#4563(2011.2.16)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4561に関し)<昨>日引用したニューズウィークの記事、ムバラク・同夫人・長男・次男について詳細に知ることができる。
 夫人、母親はアイルランド人、17歳で結婚した後、修士号まで取得、女性解放と社会福祉事業に力を入れたんだね。

 それでは、記事の紹介です。

 「スペングラー」、反体制派に対して徹底的に冷笑的なエジプト革命論を展開。
 完全にイスラエルのユダヤ人の視点だねえ。↓
 ・・・Egypt churns out 700,000 university graduates a year qualified to stamp each other's papers and not much else, and employs perhaps 200,000 of them, mostly in government bureaucracy.
 ・・・a large number of the Egyptian labor force is unemployable. The products of the education system are unemployable.・・・
 ・・・The euphoric youth say they ran Tahrir Square so perfectly that they can also manage Egypt - except that their country is a land of 80 million people, 40 per cent of whom live in poverty. By official accounts, 44 per cent of the labor force is illiterate or semi-illiterate."・・・Google employee Whalid Ghonim, the poster-child for Egypt's revolution, did not have a job in Egypt, but in Dubai.
 ・・・the country's higher education system・・・fill<ed> Tahrir Square with young people who have nothing else to do・・・
 ・・・the Facebook revolutionaries of Egypt. They are neither secular nor Muslim, neither modern nor traditional, neither enlightened nor backward. They are stuck in a cultural twilight zone, between the traditional world of their cousins who mutilate their daughters' genitals, and the modern dystopia flickering in colored pixels just beyond their grasps. They have no safe place in Arab society, except in the disembodied cyberworld of social networking. ・・・
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB16Ak02....

 PTD(ポスト植民地期障害)とは、言い得て妙だな。
 反体制派に着目した上の「スペングラー」論考より、体制側に着目したこの論考の方がはるかにレベル高いな。
 筆者のJames D. Le Sueur は、現在米ネブラスカ大学の準教授だが、その前はオックスフォードの研究員であり、アルジェリアの本書いてる
http://pierrebourdieuunhommage.blogspot.com/2010/0...
ところを見るとフランス人かフランス系イギリス人か?↓
 ・・・Like Mubarak, other "presidents for life" see popular challenges to state authority as inauthentic and conspiracy-driven -- an understandable worldview, since many of them cut their teeth during decolonization. They suffer from what can be called postcolonial time disorder, or PTD, meaning that they still subscribe to an out-of-date philosophy of governance, according to which authoritarianism is the only cure for external or internal political challenges. They have a Manichean inability to think outside the logic of totalizing state power.・・・
 In various ways, PTD affects how such leaders as Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, and Myanmarese President Thein Sein run their countries. ・・・
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67432/james...

 エジプト軍当局が憲法作成のための作業パネルを設置し、10日以内に成果を出すよう求めたぞ。 
 人選等からみて、どうやら、軍、マジに民政移行を期してるみたいだな。↓
 The military officers governing Egypt on Tuesday convened a panel of jurists, including an outspoken Muslim Brotherhood politician, to revise the country’s Constitution・・・The military has urged the panel to complete its work in just 10 days・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/world/middleeast...

 バーレーンのシーア派の動きが急だ。
 治安当局がシーア派の反体制派を2人も殺しちゃったんじゃアウチじゃない?
 次はバーレーン革命か。
 同国所在の米中央軍の第5艦隊司令部危うし。↓
 Bahrain has moved to defuse unrest by promising to investigate the killings of opposition protesters who had been inspired by the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.・・・
 More than 10,000 people were taking part in the funeral procession for Ali Abdulhadi Mushaima when police opened fire without warning as they chanted slogans calling for a new constitution, a democratically elected government and an end to anti-Shia discrimination in the Sunni-ruled island kingdom.・・・
 The political crisis deepened when Bahrain's main Shia party, al-Wifaq, announced that it was withdrawing from parliament, where it has 18 of the 40 seats.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/bahrai...



#4565(2011.2.17)

 エジプト革命が中東革命へと大化けするかって感じになってきた。

 バーレーンが、ホント、きな臭くなってきたぞ。↓
 <焦点はタハリール広場ならぬ真珠広場だ。↓>
 Security forces in Bahrain have moved into Pearl Square<(真珠広場)(注)> in the centre of capital, Manama, trying to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters.

 (注)「石油を輸出する前のペルシャ湾岸地帯の主要な輸出品は、真珠であった。天然真珠の採取は、苛酷な労働であったが、これによって、人々が豊かになることはなかった。・・・真珠産業で本当に儲けた人々は、商人に限られており、その大部分はインド人であった。・・・インドは、イギリスの植民地だから、実際に儲けているのはイギリス人ということになる。・・・1930年代になると、日本の安い養殖真珠が世界市場を席巻し、真珠の価格の暴落により、湾岸地帯の天然真珠産業は崩壊する。・・・イギリスは、ほぼ二世紀にわたって休戦国家(<=ペルシャ湾岸>)に君臨していたにもかかわらず、この地域の教育と医療にまったく貢献しなかった。・・・著者・・・Mohammed Al Fahim・・・の母が30歳で死亡した時には、湾岸地帯に医者も看護士も一人もいなかった」
http://www.nagaitosiya.com/c/abu_dhabi.html

 <既に反体制派たる多数派のシーア派の2人が治安当局に殺されている。↓>
 Hundreds of riot police using tear gas and batons moved into the square before dawn on Thursday.
 The protesters are calling for wide-ranging political reforms and have been camped out for three days.
 Clashes earlier in the week left two dead and dozens injured in the country.・・・
 <独立以来、40年間にわたって首相が替わってない。↓>
 ・・・Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al Khalifa・・・has been in office for 40 years.
 <その親戚が現国王(前太守(emir))で、彼は改革指向なんだな。↓>
 Bahrain's king, Sheikh Hamad bin Issa Al Khalifa, expressed regret about the deaths of protesters and said he would continue reforms begun in 2002 when the emirate became a constitutional monarchy.
 Since independence from the UK in 1971, tensions between the Sunni elite and the less affluent Shia have frequently caused civil unrest. Shia groups say they are marginalised, subject to unfair laws, and repressed.
 <彼が太守に就任したのが1999年で、2001年には国王となり、彼は、バーレーンを形の上で立憲君主国にした。↓>
 The conflict lessened in 1999 when Sheikh Hamad became emir. He freed political prisoners, allowed exiles to return and abolished a law permitting the government to detain individuals without trial for three years.
 He also began a cautious process of democratic reform. In 2001, voters approved a National Action Charter that would transform Bahrain into a constitutional monarchy. The next year, Sheikh Hamad proclaimed himself king and decreed that a National Assembly be formed.
 There was also greater protection of democracy and human rights. Although political parties were banned, "political societies" could operate.
 <しかし、民主主義化が不十分であるとして、2002年の選挙には反体制派は参加しなかった。↓>
 Landmark elections were held in 2002, but the opposition boycotted them because the appointed upper chamber of parliament, the Shura Council, was given equal powers to the elected lower chamber, the Council of Representatives.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-124902...
 <バーレーンは土手道(causeway)でサウディアラビアとつながっていて、サウディは石油の枯渇しかけているバーレーンをカネと安全で守っている。>
 ・・・With dwindling oil resources, Bahrain relies on Saudi Arabia - the two nations are connected by a lengthy causeway - for money and a security blanket. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 リビアもちょっくらアブなくなってきた。↓
 <リビア第二の都市で首都から1,000km東のベンガジ・・かねてよりの反体制派の巣窟・・で反体制運動が起こった。↓>
 ・・・up to 2,000 people were involved in the overnight protests in Benghazi, which saw a march on government offices in the city.・・・
 Libya's second-largest city with some 670,000 residents
 History of antagonism with Colonel Gaddafi since 1969 coup
 Many relatives of inmates allegedly killed at Abu Salim prison in 1996 live in the city・・・
 More than 100 members of a banned Islamist militant group were freed from Abu Salim on Wednesday. It is not clear if the Benghazi clashes and the release of the inmates were connected.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12477275
 It is from here that Libya's best known rebel group, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), has drawn many of its members in the past. Once allied to al-Qaeda, the LIFG has since renounced its ties to Osama Bin Laden. ・・・
 <リビアと欧米諸国の関係は、最近若干の改善を見ていた。↓>
 Since UN sanctions were lifted following the Lockerbie trial there has been a tentative rapprochement between Libya and the West.
 Libya renounced its attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, dismantled its chemical weapons programme, paid compensation to the victims of the Lockerbie bombing, and opened its doors to international tourists.
 The country has some fabulous, unspoilt Roman ruins and spectacular Saharan scenery. ・・・
 <リビアはそこそこの産油/天然ガス産出国。↓>
 With its sizable oil and gas reserves, Libya is an important market for Western oil companies and many of its citizens enjoy relative affluence. ・・・
 <確かに、カダフィは、アラブ世界の最長の統治者(42年)だが・・。↓>
 ・・・Col Gaddafi is the Arab world's longest-serving ruler, after 42 years in power・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12484186
 <玄人筋は、カダフィは安泰だと見ている。↓さあてね。>
 ・・・the timing of the prisoner release was coincidental rather than a response to the bubbling unrest. "The decision was taken three or four weeks ago,・・・And in fact, maybe there is a message here: That the regime feels very secure, and that the government is very stable." At least, for now.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2049...



#4567(2011.2.18)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム##4565に関し)湾岸諸国はかつて英国の保護領だったが、バーレーンで二人を殺した、治安用のゴム弾を発明したのも英国で、英当局は北アイルランドで35年間に12万5千発撃って17人が死んでいる。
http://bit.ly/huwoUH

 それでは、記事の紹介です。

 バーレーンでは真珠広場に集まってた反体制派が警察によって蹴散らされ、新たに2名の死者が出た(以上引用せず)ところ、やっぱし元宗主国の英国がバーレーンにゴム弾等を、さんざ輸出してたんだね。↓
 The British government has launched a review of arms exports to Bahrain after it emerged that the country's security forces were supplied with weapons by the United Kingdom.
 After a bloody crackdown in the capital, Manama, left up to five people dead and more than 100 injured, Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt said the government will "urgently revoke licences if we judge that they are no longer in line with the [UK and European Union] criteria".・・・
  ・・・shotguns(散弾銃), teargas canisters(催涙弾), "crowd control ammunition"(ゴム弾等) and stun grenades(スタングレネード=フラッシュバン).・・・
 <バーレーンの内務省や国防省には英国人顧問がわんさといるらしい。↓>
 "The Bahrain military employs a number of British citizens as advisers on organisation and strategy in the ministry of interior and the ministry of defence,"・・・
 <英国、ゴム弾等をリビアにも輸出してたんだって。↓>
 UK has also supplied Libya・・・with similar weapons and ammunition. Sales to both Bahrain and Libya were actively promoted by the UK government's arms promotion unit, the UK Trade & Investment Defence & Security Organisation.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/17/bahrai...
 <真珠広場の反体制派達のところに医師や救急隊員がかけつけるのさえ、警察が妨げたんだって。↓>
 ・・・in the early morning, when the assault was still under way, police officers beat a paramedic and a doctor and refused to allow medical staff to attend to the wounded.・・・
 ・・・the health minister, Faisal al-Hamar, resigned after doctors staged a demonstration to protest his order barring ambulances from going to the square. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/world/middleeast...
 <国王と首相のどっちが実権を握っているのかよー分からんらしい。↓>
 ・・・Before Thursday morning's crackdown, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa had appeared eager to dial down tensions. After protests earlier in the week ended in two deaths, he made a rare TV appearance Thursday, apologizing to the victims' families and promising to investigate.
 But a few hours later, he sent troops to disperse crowds that had camped out in the roundabout. ・・・
 <バーレーンの中東の金融センターとしての地位危うし。↓>
 The protests also alarmed the global financial community, which has long viewed Bahrain as a liberalizing, regional financial hub. For decades it has served as an offshore banking center for Saudi Arabia, the Mideast's largest—but still largely closed—economy. Fitch Ratings said Thursday it was reviewing Bahrain's A rating for possible downgrade, citing expectations that protests will be prolonged.・・・
 <バーレーンGPもどうなるか、開催が危ぶまれている。↓>
 The violence also threatened one of Bahrain's key international marketing pushes. Formula 1 organizers said they may pull next month's race in Bahrain, the opening event in the racing circuit's season.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487046...
 <バーレーン軍の大部分は原住民だが、警察にはパキスタン人等の帰化人が多い。後者は少数派たるスンニ派政権を維持するため、外国の忠実なスンニ派導入政策をとっているためだとよ。↓>
 ・・・Bahrain's roughly 12,000-member military is made up predominately of Bahraini nationals. But the Bahraini security forces, including riot police, are filled with Pakistanis and other foreign-born troops and officers "who are happy to do whatever they have to do to keep law and order,''・・・
 <国王と首相の確執について説明がなされている。↓>
 The situation in Bahrain is further complicated by a palace feud between the country's prime minister and his nephew, the country's king.
 The police involved in Thursday's violence are answerable to the prime minister, Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa・・・
 "There's always been a question - and it's completely opaque - as to just how much the king controls . . . and just how much the prime minister controls,''・・・
 "The problem with Bahrain is that what the king implemented back in the early 2000s was far beyond what Saudi Arabia or Qatar or Oman or the United Arab Emirates had done, but it was less than what Bahrain had in the '70s,'' said Gause, the Vermont professor.
 <バーレーン軍は英国によってもっぱら訓練を受け、米国から資金と若干の訓練を得ている。↓>
 The Bahrain Defense Forces, predominately trained by the United Kingdom in the past, today receive strong financial support and training from the United States, which bases the Navy's 5th Fleet here. ・・・
 <バーレーン警察への外国人導入政策について説明がなされている。↓>
 ・・・the fact that the riot police include a significant number of naturalized foreigners has been a major point of conflict within Bahrain.
 "There has certainly been an effort by the ruling family to make sure that the security forces are loyal to the family, and thus they import Sunnis from other parts of the world and give them citizenship,''・・・. Not only does that provide a steady stream of potential recruits, but it helps "change the demographic balance of the country,"・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 リビアは欧米からあんまり関心をもたれてないのと、カダフィの厳しい情報統制により、リビアでの反体制派の動きについて正しい報道がなされていないという。↓
 <1996年には政治犯が収容されていた刑務所で1.200人が虐殺されたという。↓>
 ・・・in 1996 in Tripoli's infamous Abu Salim prison, where an estimated 1,200 prisoners, mostly opponents of the regime, were rounded up and gunned down in the span of a few hours.・・・
 Although both Al Jazeera English and the Associated Press amended their reports after pressure from Libyan activists, the reporting on Tuesday's impromptu protests in Benghazi and the lack of information available to international media outlets are indicative of a much larger problem that Libyans have struggled with for decades: the creation of a virtual vacuum of information by the Qaddafi regime's strict censorship policies, highly restrictive press laws, and uncompromising repression of even the slightest expression of dissent. This has created considerable obstacles for Libyans both inside and outside the country attempting to communicate their struggles to the world. ・・・
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/17/w... 



#4569(2011.2.19)

<ΦΦδδ>(「たった一人の反乱」より)

 バーレーンの国民って何が不満なのか皆目見当がつかないなあ。
 大した仕事もしてないくせに、インド人やパキスタン人を安い給料で使って、昼間からショッピングセンターでブラブラしてるだけ。
 民主化以前に働け!って感じ

<太田>

 こういう話、典拠付でアップせにゃ。
 いずれにせよ、1874年からの(特権の喪失を嘆いた士族による)士族民権、1878年からの(小作人をこき使ってた豪農による)豪農民権を経て1881年に国会開設の勅諭が出された
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E6...
っていう、自分の国の自由民主主義化の歴史を顧みてモノを言いな。

 それでは、記事の紹介です。

 英国政府、慌ててバーレーンとリビアへの武器輸出ライセンスを大量キャンセル。↓
 ・・・Britain announced that it was revoking 44 licences for the export of arms to Bahrain amid concern over the violent suppression of protests in the Gulf state. The Foreign Office also said that eight arms export licences to Libya had been withdrawn, while a review of arms exports to the wider region continues.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/18/bahrai...

 弾圧にもかかわらず、人口100万弱のバーレーンでの反体制派の勢いは増している。↓
 ・・・The early evening clashes brought a dramatic end to a day that had started off with three large funeral rallies through the suburbs of Manama. More than 50,000 demonstrators attended – between 5% and 10% of the tiny kingdom's population.
 They were among the biggest public rallies the Arab world's smallest state has ever seen. At the largest of them, in the suburb of Sitra, around 25,000 mourners marched in a long looping column to a graveyard, demanding that the regime be changed.
 <反体制派側では、スンニ、シーアを乗り越えようとする動きが見られる。↓>
 "No to Sunni; no to Shia," they cried at one point. "We are all Bahraini."
 <死者のお父さんにこう言われりゃ、更にみんな奮い立つだろうね。↓>
 Mahmoud Muhim, the father of one of the dead protesters, took the microphone during the march and said: "Not one person has offered me commiserations. Everyone has said congratulations, because I now have a martyred son. He died for Bahrain."・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/18/bahrai...
 <実際、スンニ派も反体制運動に相当加わっているようだ。↓>
 ・・・What had been a Shia movement was drawing young Sunnis into the protest.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-125080...
 <とはいえ、体制/スンニ派側も反撃にやっき。↓>
 ・・・The divide inside the country was apparent earlier Friday, before the clashes with demonstrators, as thousands of mostly Sunni supporters of the Khalifa family marched in a pro-government rally, waving the red-and-white Bahraini flag.
 <ただし、その中には、インド人やパキスタン人の帰化者達も多数含まれている。
 帰化者達にとって、バーレーンはホントいい所であるようだ。↓>
 The crowd - predominantly Sunni Muslim Bahrainis or expatriates from countries such as India and Pakistan - carried pictures of the king and the prime minister and chanted slogans in favor of their continued rule.
 "This is a lovely country. It's like a dream," said an Indian man with a Bahraini flag tied around his neck and draped down his back like a cape,・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 さて、今度は人口600万のリビアだ。
 報道管制が徹底している・・外国の記者は全く入国できない・・ので、情報が錯綜しているが、相当ヤバイことになっているのは確からしい。↓
 <首都トリポリから遠く離れたリビア東部は、何十人も死者が出て無政府状態になってるようだ。↓>
・・・Umm Muhammad, a political activist in Benghazi, told・・・that 38 people had died there. "They were using live fire here, not just teargas. This is a bloody massacre — in Benghazi, in al-Bayda, all over Libya. ・・・ The whole Libyan people wants to bring down this regime." ・・・
 Ramadan Briki, the Benghazi-based editor of Quryna newspaper, said 24 people had died. Ashour Shamis, a London-based Libyan journalist, said protesters had stormed the city's Kuwafiyah prison and freed dozens of political prisoners. Escapees set fire to the prosecutor's office, a bank and a police station.
 Amateur footage showed buildings burning and protesters who had been shot dead. The pictures・・・recorded streets empty of police or army units. Much of the violence was blamed on "mercenaries" reportedly brought in from neighbouring Chad.
 Amer Saad, a political activist from Derna, told al-Jazeera: "The protesters in al-Bayda have been able to seize control of the military airbase in the city and have executed 50 African mercenaries and two Libyan conspirators. Even in Derna today, a number of conspirators were executed. They were locked up in the holding cells of a police station because they resisted, and some died burning inside the building.
 "This will be the end of every oppressor who stands with Gaddafi. Gaddafi is over, that's it, he has no presence here any more. The eastern regions of Libya are now free regions. If he wants to reclaim it, he will need to bomb us with nuclear or chemical bombs. This is his only option. The people have stood and said they will not go back."・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/18/libya-...
 <やや体制側の肩を持つような話をする人もいる。↓>
 ・・・Gamal Bandour, a judge in Benghazi, said marchers clashed with security personnel after a funeral for 15 protesters who were fatally shot Thursday. On their way back from the service, protesters set fire to government buildings and police stations.
 ・・・security forces fired on the Benghazi protesters, killing 13 of them.
 "The security forces were forced to use live bullets to stop the protesters when their protests turned violent and aggressive," ・・・(AP)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

 最後にイェーメンだ。
 イェーメンは、エジプトとは全く違って部族社会であるにも拘わらず、何でもエジプトに右に倣えしてきた戦後史を持つってんだな。↓
 ・・・most of the revolutionary movements in Yemen have been influenced by earlier Egyptian events. The 1952 revolution in Egypt belatedly inspired the 1962 revolution in Yemen, which split our nation in half for nearly three decades.・・・
 Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Yemen is tribal and could easily fall into civil war.・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/opinion/18muqri....



#4571(2011.2.20)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 北アフリカで先の大戦中ロンメルの軍団が英軍とトブルク、エルアラメイン、そしてチュニジアの戦いを行った
http://bit.ly/eGHMYh
が、今次革命では、この逆にチュニジア、エジプト、リビアと事態が進行しているな。

 それでは、記事の紹介です。

 本日は、中東革命がらみのみです。
 バーレーン情勢、二転三転したけれど、今のところ反体制派にとって好転している。↓
 ・・・two protesters were killed in the first two days, both shot in the back by the police・・・
 The government eased off on Wednesday, and then cracked down again on Thursday, attacking the protesters without warning at 3 a.m. as thousands slept in the square beneath a towering monument with a pearl on top. At least five people were killed, though exact figures have not been verified. At least 25 people are still missing from that night, including children.
 On Friday night, thousands rallied outside the main hospital, insisting they would avenge those killed and wounded by marching to the square, despite the cordon of police officers blocking every road. ・・・
 The protesters set off from the hospital grounds with a mix of fear and determination. When they approached the phalanx of the police, officers opened fire and blanketed the neighborhood with tear gas.・・・
 And then, the fight for the square was over. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast...
 <皇太子が対話を呼びかけたのに対し、反体制派は、まず真珠広場等からの軍の撤退をと要求した。↓>
 ・・・Bahrain's crown prince is holding initial talks with opposition parties.
 They include the main Shia opposition parties in the Sunni-ruled Gulf state, our correspondent Caroline Hawley reports from Manama.
 Earlier, reports said that the main Shia opposition bloc, Wefaq, had rejected an offer from the king to hold talks aimed at ending days of unrest. They demanded the withdrawal of the military from the streets before talks could begin.・・・
 The crown prince - who controls the armed forces - ordered the army off the streets.・・・
  <軍は撤退したけど、警察は残った。↓>
 Following the army's withdrawal on Saturday, heavily armed riot police fired volleys of tear gas and shotgun rounds as anti-government protesters arrived at the square from all directions.
 <突然、警察も撤退した。↓>
 As the protesters stood firm, police then pulled out, leaving the square to the jubilant crowd. They waved flags and carried banners into the square in a show of defiance to the authorities.
 The crowds now appear determined to stay in the square, setting up a makeshift hospital and erecting tents.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-125148...
 <これは、オバマがバーレーンの国王に電話をかけた結果だったらしい。↓>
 ・・・The order to withdraw troops came after a curt phone call on Friday night from Barack Obama to King Hamad al-Khalifa, in which the US president urged him to show restraint. ・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/19/bahrai...
 <この国王は、文字通りの米国のポチとして知られている人物だ。↓>
 ・・・The U.S. has sought to significantly enhance cooperation with Bahrain on everything from energy security to counter-proliferation activities in recent years. Unlike his neighbors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Bahrain's King Khalifa has shown little reluctance to back U.S. foreign-policy goals.・・・
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487038...
 <米国のバーレーンの軍・警察に対する援助はこのところうなぎ登りだった。↓>
 ・・・ United States security assistance to Bahrain increased to $20.8 million in 2010 from $5.3 million in 2008. Last year about $1.1 million of the aid went for counterterrorism assistance, including aid to the police and military forces that are battling the protesters. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast... 前掲
 <NYタイムスの論説委員(op-ed columnist)のNICHOLAS D. KRISTOFが、タハリール広場から今度は真珠広場に取材現場を移して決死の報道を続けていることには頭が下がる。 日本の「戦場」記者はどこに隠れている?↓
 一日前のこの悲愴な怒りに満ちた彼の文章を見よ。↓>
 ・・・we should signal more clearly that we align ourselves with the 21st-century aspirations for freedom of Bahrainis rather than the brutality of their medieval monarch. I’m not just deeply “concerned” by what I’ve seen here. I’m outraged.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/19/opinion/19kristo...
 <そして、本日の、反体制派の勇気を称え、喜びを噛み締める彼の文章も見よ。↓>
 Pro-democracy protesters have retaken the Pearl Roundabout – the local version of Tahrir Square – from the government. ・・・
 ・・・Finally, I just have to say: These Bahraini democracy activists are unbelievably courageous. I’ve been taken aback by their determination and bravery. They faced down tanks and soldiers, withstood beatings and bullets, and if they achieve democracy – boy, they deserve it.
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/19/deliri...
 <BBCとNYタイムスは、反体制派の最新動向についての報道ぶりが微妙に異なる。
 ボクとしては、BBCの方に旗を揚げたい。
 つまり、王室廃止を反体制派の主流は目ざしていないと見る。↓>
 ・・・There is also a striking uniformity in what the people gathered there say they want. There is little appetite for the abolition of the monarchy; they want, instead, its reform.
 "The monarchy has to reform or be thrown away," opposition leader Ebrahim Sherrif told me earlier in the day. Mr Sherrif will play a major role in the negotiations with the government that will now begin.・・・
 "We'd like to see a UK- or Spanish-style constitutional monarchy. A republic does not solve the problem - we had republics in Tunisia and Egypt and they were the first to be overthrown," he said. ・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-125159...
 ・・・The withdrawal of forces from Pearl Square had been the opposition’s precondition for negotiations, but by Saturday the line appeared to have shifted. A movement that began as a call for immediate democratic reform seemed set on nothing less than the removal of the king, or at least, his uncle, the prime minister.
 The most common chants heard in the square, where protesters appeared to be setting up a permanent encampment on Saturday night, were “Death to Khalifa!” and “The people want the government to fall.”・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast... 前掲
 <バーレーンじゃ国王らの対処ぶりが二転三転したのに対し、リビアじゃカダフィの対処ぶりは武力一点張りだ。
 既に100名を超える死者が出てそうだ。↓>
  Libyan forces opened fire on mourners leaving a funeral for protesters Saturday in the flashpoint city of Benghazi, and a medical official said 15 people were killed, with bodies piling up in a hospital and doctors collapsing in grief at the sight of dead relatives.
 The deaths pushed the overall estimated death toll to 99 in five days of unprecedented protests against the 42-year reign of Moammar Gadhafi.・・・
 <ベンガジを始め、東部を中心に、首都トリポリ以外のリビア全土で騒擾が続いており、多くの都市で警察が反体制派に寝返っている、との情報もある。↓>
  ・・・police in Benghazi initially followed orders to act against the protest but later joined with them because they belong to the same tribe and saw the foreign mercenaries taking part in the killings.
 A similar scenario took place in other eastern cities, including Beyda, which once housed Libya's parliament before Gadhafi's military coup in September 1969 toppled the monarchy.
 Protests spread to outside the southern city of Zentan and west to Mesrata, the third-biggest city in Libya. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
 <それでも、カダフィ体制がホントに倒れるようなことがあるのか、疑問の声が投げかけられている。↓>
 ・・・One of the region’s wealthier countries, Libya has been spared the economic grievances that offered a cadence to protests against President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Nor does Colonel Qaddafi seem to generate the loathing that President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali did in Tunisia. Though his rule has proven idiosyncratic and eccentric, he has a luxury not afforded neighboring Egypt: vast oil revenues and a small population.
 But political grievances in places like Benghazi have deepened with the crackdown. Some accuse the state of deploying special forces and foreign mercenaries unable to speak Arabic to crush the protests, and the bloodshed — much of it inflicted on funeral marches — seems to have struck a chord of anger. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/20/world/middleeast...



#4573(2011.2.21)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 中東世界の大激動を目の当たりにしていると、東アジアの逼塞が気になる。
 北朝鮮・中共・ベトナムという悪の枢軸の存在は、一義的には米国のせいだが、二義的には日本がアジアの自由民主主義化の旗手をやめたためだ。

 それでは、その他の記事の紹介です。

 以下、中東革命関連です。
 まず、元ガーディアン記者の、戦後アラブ革命の、I.ナショナリズム革命→II.政治的イスラム(イスラム過激派)革命→III.自由民主主義革命、という変遷論が面白い。↓
 ・・・Arab democratic revolution・・・amounts to nothing less than a "third way" in modern Arab history. The first was nationalism, nourished by the experience of European colonial rule and all its works・・・Nationalism, once the other great western bugbear(お化け)・・・, from the initial great carve-up of the "Arab nation" to the creation of Israel, and the west's subsequent, continued will to dominate and shape the region. The second, which only achieved real power in non-Arab Iran, was "political Islam", nourished by the failure of nationalism.・・・
 ・・・essentially western value called democracy・・・
 <そのすべてがエジプトが発祥であるとする。↓>
 Egypt was always a model・・・President Nasser's overthrow of the monarchy in 1952・・・Nasser did seek the "genuine democracy" ・・・<and> the creation of the Muslim Brotherhood, of the "political Islam" we know today・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/2...

 この元記者は、Iは欧米の鬼子由来、IIIは欧米嫡流由来、としているが、私見では、Iは欧州の民主主義的独裁そのもの、IIはプロト欧州のカトリシズム由来、IIIはアングロサクソンの自由民主主義そのもの、だ。

 次にリビア情勢だ。
 <カダフィの息子達が先頭に立って反体制派を虐殺しながらその鎮圧を図っている。↓>
 ・・・the Gaddafi family as saying they would "die on Libyan soil" rather than give up power like the presidents of Egypt and Tunisia.・・・
 <カダフィ一家は殺すか殺されるかと思っている。↓>
 ・・・Two of Gaddafi's other sons, Khamis and Saadi, and intelligence chief Abdullah Sanussi were reportedly commanding efforts to crush the protests in Benghazi・・・.
 <アラブ連盟リビア代表やリビアの駐中共大使が抗議の辞任をしたし、一つの有力部族が反旗を翻した。↓>
 Libya's representative to the Arab League, Abdel Monein al-Honi, announced that he was resigning in protest at the suppression of the unrest. Libya's ambassador to China, Hussein Sadiq al-Musrati, resigned on air while on al-Jazeera Arabic, calling on the army to intervene, and urged all diplomatic staff to resign. In another striking development, the leader of a powerful tribe in eastern Libya warned that oil exports to the west -- vital for the country's economy -- would be halted within 24 hours unless the authorities stopped the "oppression of protesters".・・・
 <鍵は首都トリポリが全面的に騒擾状態になり、かつ軍が引き続き虐殺に荷担するかどうかだ。↓>
 "Assuming that the Libyan protesters have the stamina and determination of those in Tunisia and Egypt , even in the face of gunfire, the resolution of the conflict seems to depend on two factors: will the disturbances spread to the different urban environment of Tripoli?
 "And will the army – composed of Libyans, not foreign mercenaries, and therefore open to tribal influences which are largely unknown – continue to be willing to fire on unarmed civilians?"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/20/libya-...
 <そのトリポリでも、警察署と支配政党のビルの一つが焼き討ちされた。↓>
 ・・・a police station had been burnt down and a building belonging to the country's ruling party had also been attacked and set ablaze.・・・
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-125205...
 <トリポリは、既に全面的に騒擾状態だ、という情報もある。↓>
 ・・・The state has disappeared from the streets, and the people, the youth, have practically taken over・・・. ・・・
 <ベンガジだが、軍の部隊は兵舎に籠城状態へと追い詰められている。↓>
 A brigade of more than 1,000 members of the security forces were concentrated a few miles away from the courthouse in a barracks・・・
 <ベンガジに到着した軍の特殊部隊は反体制派側に寝返り、反体制派はベンガジの警察本部を強襲、占拠した。↓>
 Then another military brigade of reinforcements, described by witnesses as special forces, had begun collaborating with the protesters, with some lending their tanks to help assault other units of the government’s security forces.
Soon the protesters stormed the local headquarters of the state security services. ・・・
 Within hours, several protesters said, they had taken control of the army barracks as well.・・・
 <ベンガジの東方70マイルのダルナ(Darnah)では、警察は警察本部から撤退した。↓>
 There were reports of uprisings in several other cities along the coast, including in Baida and Misratah. In the city of Darnah, about 70 miles east of Benghazi, a witness said five people had died in clashes with the police on Thursday, but that by Sunday the protesters had set fire to the security headquarters and the police had pulled out. ・・・
 <騒擾が東部から始まり、現在もその中心が東部であるのは、イタリアの植民地時代に東部はキレナイカとして、別立てで統治されていた、ということがあげられる。↓>
 ・・・the eastern region of Cyrenaica. The area was ruled as a separate colony during the Italian occupation, which ended after the second world war, and has long been a stronghold of opposition to Col Gaddafi. ・・・
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbb1b688-3d20-11e0-bbff-...
 <イタリアの植民地統治が過酷であったことが尾を引いており、リビアは、いまだに部族社会。その上にカダフィ一家が君臨してきた。
 また、各部族が軍において割拠している状態。よって軍は一枚岩ではないし、プロ意識も欠如している。↓>
 ・・・With little shared national experience aside from a brutal Italian colonialism, Libyans tend to identify themselves as members of tribes or clans rather than citizens of a country. Mr. Qaddafi has governed in part through the mediation of a “social leadership committee” composed of about 15 representatives of various tribes・・・
 What is more,・・・most of the tribal representatives on the committee are also military officers, who each represent a tribal group within the military. So, unlike the Tunisian or Egyptian militaries, the Libyan military lacks the cohesion or professionalism that might enable it to step in to resolve the conflict with the protesters or to stabilize the country. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/africa/21l...

 その次は、バーレーン情勢だ。
 反体制派は、王室との対話に入る前に、(王族の一員である)首相を解任することを求めている。↓
 Teachers, lawyers and engineers marched into Pearl Square on Sunday, joining an emboldened opposition whose political leaders demanded that the king dissolve the government and fire his uncle, who has held the post of prime minister for 40 years, before they agree to enter into talks. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/middleeast...

 モロッコでも反体制派は同じことを求めているが、バーレーンと違って現国王はホントに改革派で立憲君主制志向であり、実は国王と反体制派は同床同夢である点だ。↓
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/middleeast...



#4575(2011.2.22)

<太田>(ツイッターより)

 (コラム#4573に関し)バーレーンとモロッコの反体制派は、どちらも立憲君主制を勝ち取り、カダフィは失権する、という方にかけよう。
 分かんないのはイェーメンだ。
 それにしても中共での「ジャスミン革命ごっこ」にはびっくりしたな、もう。

 それでは、記事の紹介です。
 まずは中東革命がらみから。

 米国人学者のジーン・シャープ(コラム#4559)のエジプト革命との関係が具体的に説明されている。↓
 ・・・"One of the main points which we used was Sharp's idea of identifying a regime's pillars of support," he said. "If we could build a relationship with the army, Mubarak's biggest pillar of support, to get them on our side, then we knew he would quickly be finished."
 That night as I settled down to sleep in a corner of Tahrir square some of the protesters came to show me text messages they said were from the army telling them that they wouldn't shoot. "We know them and we know they are on our side now," they said.
 <シャープのことを全く知らないまま、シャープの主張を学んで活動をしてきた反体制派の青年が多数いるってことのようだ。↓>
 One of the protesters, Mahmoud, had been given photocopies of a handout containing the list of 198 methods but he was unaware of their origins. He proudly described how many of them had been used in Egypt but he had never heard of Gene Sharp.
 When I pointed out that these non-violent weapons were the writings of an American academic he protested strongly. "This is an Egyptian revolution", he said. "We are not being told what to do by the Americans."
 And of course that is exactly what Sharp would want.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-125228...

 次はリビア「革命」についてだ。
 最新の動き↓は、日本のTVで確かめて欲しい。↓ 
 ・・・eastern Libya has been liberated from pro-Gaddafi forces. ・・・helicopter gunships were striking protesters in Tripoli, where thousands have gathered in Green Square. The military was also conducting air-strikes on protesters walking from Misruata, which protesters took over, to Tripoli・・・
 Libya's ambassadors to the U.N. called for Gaddafi to step down. ・・・
 Libya's ambassador to India, resigned from his post Monday and called for Gaddafi to step down.・・・
 ・・・two Libyan Air Force fighter pilots defected on Monday and flew their jets to Malta where they told authorities they had been ordered to bomb protesters. ・・・
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...
 ・・・the death toll at between 300 and 400 by Monday afternoon.・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/21/libya-...
 <軍も分裂を始めている。↓>
 ・・・a senior military official, Col. Abdel Fattah Younes in Benghazi, resigned, and・・・Colonel Qaddafi had ordered that one of his top generals, Abu Bakr Younes, be put under house arrest after disobeying an order to use force against protesters in several cities. ・・・
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/africa/22l...
 <カダフィは失権する、とガーディアンも言い出した。これで決まりかなあ。
 カダフィの末路は哀れなようだよ。↓>
 ・・・Most analysts believe that after the extraordinary events of the last few days, the end of Gaddafi's rule is approaching.
 "There is nowhere for him to go in the Arab world -- the Saudis hate him,・・・It would have to be somewhere like Zimbabwe or Venezuela. It may take 24 hours or a couple of months – no one really knows. But the end is nigh."・・・
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/21/libya-...



つづき・・リビア革命(2011.2.23〜2011.10.26)
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