Dave Mitchell

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2. Published by: best of elle
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Sally Potter

Sweden directed by - Sally Potter Genre - Drama The roads not taken poster. I wonder if theyll do something like this surrounding the scandal of Matt Lauer on NBC. Make a video for Russian revolution. Recently I have taken to writing essays as a way to help me process the cacophonous clutter that gathers in my head sometimes. Writing allows me to begin articulating my thoughts in a way that I can begin to work with, start resolving stressors, and making decisions. Two weeks ago I wrote the essay with the title above. It is a single-sitting first draft, and I may try to make something more of it down the road, but for now, I wanted to share it here. Feel free to ask questions and offer your critique and individual takes on the issues I present. This is just my personal experience, and perhaps it can kick off some interesting discussion or help someone else. (I also posted this on r/gaming, but it is currently still auto-locked for moderator approval and cannot be crossposted, so I just wanted to make this post here separately. Besides, this may be better received here anyway. ) Destiny 2 and FOMO or: How I learned to Stop Stressing and Appreciate the Casual Experience 16 March, 2020 Destiny wasn't only my first multiplayer experience, it was the first game that truly hooked me for the long term. To-date, I have invested more than 1, 500 hours in Destiny 1 and 2 combined, not to mention the countless other hours I have spent in the wild slew of various other games I have finished and/or pushed into my backlog. Since 2014, when I was properly introduced to video games, they have become my primary hobby and one of my favorite pastimes. Then two things happened: FOMO, and a momentous life change that has left me with far less “gaming time” than I have ever had. “Fear of Missing Out”, or as you have likely heard it called “FOMO”, is possibly my least favorite aspect of popular video game development right now. In fact, I may currently hate it more than loot boxes. In short, FOMO happens when limited time content is introduced into a game, providing content that players will never again be able to play or acquire beyond a certain expiration date. This is more than the seasonal holiday events that many live-service games often have, providing a smattering of cosmetic items that may be limited time only. FOMO takes things a disheartening step further. In the case of Destiny 2, this includes entire sections of important story missions, game modes, locations, and full gear sets that after a “Season” cycle of content, is removed, leaving only the items that the participating players acquired, usually through a protracted grind. Don’t get me wrong here, I have nothing at all against the “hardcore” gaming experience, and in fact one of my biggest gripes with Destiny 2 still is that they have stripped many systems down to be overly simplistic, in an effort to cater to the “casual” gamer. In the same breath, I have nothing against the “casual” gamer either, having become one myself. My gripe truly lies with the manipulative and parasitic nature of FOMO, as it is in this case imposed by the combination of a poorly executed free to play model and “battle pass” formula. After the forsaken expansion for Destiny 2 dropped and I had exhausted it, I was ready to take a small break from the game. I had been staring at my ever-growing backlog and making a shortlist of games that I needed to complete or even start at all. As a relatively new gamer I am still diving into new (to me) genres and broadening my gaming interests, or otherwise finding my personal niche in the hobby. Then Shadowkeep was announced, and with it a whole new system for content moving forward. I was excited, and my carefully laid plans flew quickly out the window. Bungie was not only leaving “evil Activision” to go solo, but was going to be able to make more of the game I love so much! How could this be a bad thing? Only this past month did I realize how critically I had underestimated the manipulative power of FOMO. As the new content was released I dove back in, eagerly at first. But my backlog called me and I tried to step away, only to be reminded harshly that if I did not log back into Destiny, I would miss out on the season’s offerings. On top of this, the big life change I mentioned before occurred, and my gaming time suddenly shrunk. The second “battle pass” season then released, which came with an even more complicated grind, and the triumphant return of a fan-favorite character from the depths of Destiny lore: Saint XIV. I was beyond psyched, and played the new content excitedly, but fatigue had begun to set in, as well as the creeping realization that one of the best moments in Destiny history was soon to depart. I was barely able to drag my wife through the Saint XIV missions before they would be gone, and never to return. So I played. I ground for rolls on weapons that would soon be leaving. I ground out bounties so I could contribute to the seasonal community goal. I nodded along with apologists who sang “but you have so much time to complete these things, what’s the big deal? ” I was unable to spend adequate time on endgame activities I would rather complete because they contributed little or nothing to the seasonal goals…. I finally took a break for the last couple weeks of the season, and focused on some rpgs I needed to finish, but with very little energy. I was feeling listless and tired, and I didn’t know why. On March 10, I updated the game and loaded in to view the new season pass and try the new gameplay loop for the as I did, I began to have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. The grind I had just completed was back again, and this new iteration was more complex and grindy than the last. I played for an evening, and shut the game down with a misery I wasn’t able to articulate. The following morning I was chatting with a friend on Discord about the new changes to the game, and the protracted new grind that lay ahead, and we both agreed that we would both be spending a lot less time in game this season. However, it was still bugging owing that if I only played a little, I would either get suckered back in and spent far too much time again rushing to complete the content in the time limit, or only half finish the “battle pass” and it would bother me non-stop while I played literally anything else. The solution was simple, but the parasitic nature of the game still held me in its grasp. As we continued our discussion the next day, I had a passing thought, that lead me to look into a game that I had been hearing whispers of for quite some time: Final Fantasy XIV (FFXIV). As I investigated various professional and user reviews, including youtube videos from some of my favorite channels, one thing stuck out to me, the lack of the system I had been bemoaning for so long: FOMO. Not only was FFXIV a massively multiplayer game with an incredible wealth of story, but content was persistent. Newcomers need not worry that important moments would be lost to them before they could experience them for themselves, but they could tackle every aspect of the game at their own pace, and in their own time. There was a subscription, but it provides for constant updates and content drops, at a rate and quality that Destiny 2 could only dream of. I have never played an MMORPG in my life, save a few brief moments in Path of Exile, which never held my interest. FFXIV however was beginning to look increasingly attractive, and I was willing to take the leap on a new (to me) genre. So, rather than participate in the much-hyped return of “Trials of Osiris”, I downloaded the generous FFXIV demo and played it all day Sunday: It was some of the most relaxing gaming I have enjoyed since I first discovered Stardew Valley. I didn’t feel sickeningly rushed, I happily explored, and I had fun. Last night before I went to bed I purchased the “Starter Edition” of the game, and am currently in a bidding war for a hard copy of the dlcs on Ebay. I am writing this, relaxed, and looking forward to getting home tonight and spending my meager gaming time meandering through Eorzea, and upgrading my upstart, redheaded catboy Arcanist, as I slowly uncover a story that will surely take me several hundred hours. I bear no ill-will toward the “hardcore gamer”, and I appreciate the developers who can put in the work to provide such an experience, but as my free time has dwindled, and I have become a decidedly “casual gamer”, I am slowly learning to accept it, and appreciate the casual experience as well. Destiny may yet remain on my PS4, that remains to be seen. However, I have and must continue to cut ties with the game and it’s FOMO-ridden systems. I hope this can reach Bungie with all the goodwill I intend: I love your game, Bungie, but it has become a parasite on my life and my time, and for now I must move on. Gaming is my favorite hobby, and I hope it remains so for a very long time. FFXIV appears to be rising to fill the void of the multiplayer game for me, as not only a new genre for me to explore, but a new community and a more relaxing pace. Animal Crossing is also on the horizon, and I still need to finish Divinity Original Sin 2 and Spiderman, but I’ll have time for them sooner or later. At the end of the day we also must remember that these are all just games. They come, they go, and no game should be allowed to hold such sway over one’s time as Destiny 2 did mine. I hope you have no such parasite in your life, and if so, I hope I have helped you to recognize it in some way. Especially now, when there is so much stress around us currently. I want my games to be my escape, not a trap; An enjoyable experience with friends, not a stressful grind. Don't you? Let's keep them that way, shall we? In the meantime, fly safe Guardians. For now I will be in Eorzea. Perhaps I’ll meet you there someday? [I have since purchased Shadowbringers, and have been playing with a few friends. I am on

Wait they answered the question in this movie that how minions give birth they lay eggs That is very crucial matter and they put that in the trailer This movie sucks hard. Please upload 'If. War is a business. This is true face of America where they killed their own men and blamed middle East. I like how this had white people jokes just like the real Oscars lol.
The roads not taken rotten tomatoes. Türkischer laden wuppertal. The road not taken book. I like this video beautiful background music and voice. I can listen to this exquisite lady for is music to my spirit. I would really like to hear her read Fern Hill by Dylan Thomas. Thanks for your time. UNCUT GEM is a pretty apt title and funniest you've come up with ?. Türkischer laden regensburg. Skepticism is good and healthy. And rightful criticism often helps lead to positive change (customers complaining or making a big deal of build quality can lead to faster changes due to higher prioritization due to bad PR, etc. ). I'm a fan of Tesla, yes, but I'm not blind to how the markets work. I've ran my own startup and know first-hand that issues that are more public are prioritized far higher sometimes (not always) than issues that nobody outside the company knows about. With that said, I'm starting to notice that the vast, vast majority of skeptics are people who haven't used the product. That is to say, it's easy to miss the point of Tesla when you do not own one (I have a mid-'19 Model 3). It's kind of like when moms and dads can't understand the point of skateboards seeing how many people injure themselves; you have to ride a skateboard (properly) to truly understand the cost-benefit tradeoff. And every product has this tradeoff. I want to talk about that, but first let's look at some criticisms that make zero sense: "The build/paint/whatever quality is trash" That criticism was nearly irrelevant until Model 3. Roadster was a rich man's folly. Early Model S was a slightly less rich man's hobby car. Also, the Newton failed - so what? Some things have to be done in order to learn from them. It's entirely normal in any industry for initial products to be less stellar: this alone is a shoddy predictor of company's success, especially when the product is essentially a hobby product (I'd say the modern, cheaper Model S and X are no longer hobby products, but their quality is also way up). All that mattered is customer satisfaction and whether company has enough runway/momentum to make it to the next/better/more mass-market product. And we all know customer satisfaction had always been through the roof on average, and the momentum was quite strong. Also - since when is paint the most important part of any product? First, it's softer, yes, but not even bad. Second, if you're that concerned, put a wrap on it! You're telling me that you will refuse to put your family in the safest vehicle on the road because you're afraid of a scratch that can be seen under certain light conditions? Get outta here. It's a bit similar to how every year we freak out about lack of color options for iPhones and then we put a case on them anyway. I don't deny that some people love a good paint job, and of course it's not ideal if your car accumulates scratches easier. But it must be put in the context of the overall experience. Again - should Tesla improve their paint job? Of course! Is it a deal-breaker or an indicator that it won't succeed? Hell no! "They have lots of debt! " Have you seen how much Ford or GM or other car manufacturers have in debt? It will shock you. A better measure would be debt per car sold, but of course you'd expect a newer company to have higher debt. How much is too much is hard to tell, but in general when you scale you want to MAXIMIZE your debt. Debt is a far, far better instrument than raising money via venture capital. The two methods are same if things go bad: you just bankrupt the company. But if things go well and you succeed, you pay a tiny% of interest on debt vs giving away massive amount of company to investors. The only negative of debt is that it impacts your quarterly statements: both as a debt line item, but also as monthly/quarterly repayments, which reduces your earnings. But, if you're a company that doesn't give a damn about investor reaction this quarter and only have your aim set on 5-10 years ahead, debt is a far, far, far, far, far better instrument in 95% of cases AS LONG AS you can maintain minimal enough cash flow. In short - Tesla is just fine on debt. 'Elon is unstable' I'm sorry your sense of humor is so sad and that you were brought up in culture of such rigidity that you judge a person's professional ability by how they relax or what hobby topics they're into. As to Elon being stressed sometimes, etc. - well, that goes along with the amount of responsibility he has. Outside of raising a child, there's nothing harder than building a business in my experience. It's true hell. As someone who tried to build my own (and after 5 years failed), I have insane respect for how much stress Elon is able to weather. It's kind of inhuman, tbh. Stop expecting perfection out of a human being and you'll see that Elon's behavior is perfectly normal for someone with super-geeky sense of humor and no hang-ups about this or that being "impossible". 'Demand in US/EU/Some country is lower in this Q/year compared to previous period' Those are very often taken out of context. For example, Tesla sometimes choose to ship more cars to a region where customers had been waiting longer, which obviously reduces deliveries in other regions. Tesla does not recognize a sale until the car had been delivered, so it's impossible to judge demand based even on global sales, much less based on a specific region within a specific timeframe. The demand could be through the roof, but manufacturing could be the problem. Or demand is healthy, but Tesla diverts shipments to another region and leaves EU or specific countries hanging. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems Tesla is the only company in entire history of humanity to have $24B in annual revenue without paying for a single ad. There are valid criticisms to be made, but holy moly, demand isn't one of them. Microscope vs Macroscope OK, macroscope is not a word, haha, but you can't deny it works perfectly well anyway! If you put any company, especially a young, fast-evolving one under a microscope, you gonna find issues. Hell, arguably you can find even more issues in an old, slow-evolving one, they're just less tangible (such as "lack of vision" and "bureaucracy"). You do want to know details - the more the better - but you only want to analyze them in a bigger context. Micro for detail, but macro for conclusions. For example - you read that a Tesla randomly caught fire sitting in a garage.. this could be bad or free advertisement depending on what% of Teslas catch fire every year. 1 in 10? HUGE problem and definitely people should give Tesla hell about it. 1 in 500, 000? That's just free advertisement - a Tesla is 10x+ safer then an ICE car! Context is absolutely everything. Comment with any micro event that seems horrible and I'll find a way to put it in a context that will turn the sentiment. The micro vs macro line of thought brings me to the final point about tradeoffs: the question isn't if Tesla cars are perfect; the question is if they're worth it. All of us have bought stuff that seems like a waste to others but means a lot to us. Except in the case of Teslas, they mean a lot to nearly everyone who buys them. Let me be honest about my Model 3: it's in some ways definitely worse than Lexus cars I had. I had both an entry-level Lexus (IS300) and one that was closer to higher end (SC430). Even the entry-level Lexus' interior held together better than my Model 3's. I'm at 30K miles on M3 and I am starting to hear slight creaks when I go over any road that's not perfectly smooth; my IS300 had over 70, 000 miles and I never heard a sound on any road. Is it a REAL problem though? No because it's very rare that my music volume is low enough for me to hear this. And on the highways these little creaks are completely drown out by surrounding wind noise. Speaking of wind noise, it's definitely louder than ANY Lexus almost ever made, but again - you can buy a $50 noise-reduction kit. Do I wish M3 had better noise insulation? Absolutely! (And I expect Model Y to improve on this. ) But is it actually bad/deal-breaking? Not at all. It's worse than many other luxury cars, yes, but it's not bad in absolute. As far as quality of the interior, does M3's feel anywhere near as luxurious as SC430's, which was priced similar? Definitely not! (Which is different than saying that it feels bad or cheap - it sure doesn't. ) However, would I swap my 30K mi Model 3 to a brand-new Lexus IS or SC? Hell. No. Comparing a specific thing to a specific thing makes zero sense; that's not what defines worthiness of the car as a whole. Both my IS and SC had plenty of negatives; they were just different negatives. IS' sound system wasn't anywhere as good as Model 3's. SC's traction control was beyond horrible. Headlights, roof, spaciousness, software, and on and on and on are so, so much better in the Model 3 (and I mean compared to a brand new IS even). And in NONE of my Lexus vehicles could I watch Netflix on a big-ass screen whenever my roommate was hogging living room TV. The list of amazing things about Model 3 is too long to even list; I drive for Uber/Lyft right now (looking for a job now that my business failed) and sometimes I spend 30+ minutes going over features when a passenger asks for a download. Anyone claiming that Model 3 is the best car in every aspect is a fanboy - it's definitely not. It's incredible how much Tesla has improved in the last 5 years even, sure (try driving a 2015 Model S and then a 2019 Model 3, the difference is mind-blowing). But Tesla has a lot of room for improvement in certain areas. It's of course cool to point those areas out. But when I see people post doom and gloom stuff about the company or vehicle as a whole, it's very clear to me that these people either haven't owned the product, or owned a rare lemon. The very few who just found that the negatives weren't worth the positives usually give a specific breakdown and don't engage in generalizations. So
Brilliant work, Jacob! Great original piece, sounds great, Shure does make a good mike (SM58. I like mine! Bravo. Amazing. My soul is happy. The roads not taken clip. Such a nice explanation cant believe it ??. The roads not taken imdb. I read this great poem in class/standard 9 LOVE FROM INDIA. THE ODYSSEY PROJECT What is this claptrap? A movie/playlist I created after getting a little too deep into the Gizzverse theory. Let this stand as a monument to my folly - I don't think the Gizzverse is a cohesive, narrative thing, but what I did manage to do was create a very nice, flowing playlist that follows a narrative, using the clues, lyrical links and musical motifs presented by the band to take us on a vast, mystical journey throughout the Universe. If you're on this page, you've either come from my YouTube Videos, been sent here via myself dropping you a link, or stumbled upon this post after clicking my profile. Either way, welcome. The Odyssey project consists of 5 movies, entirely soundtracked by the incredible music of King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard. Movie might be the wrong word to describe what is going on here, however, as the playlist came first, with the visual content added later - inspired by the stories, themes, vibes and voodoo put forward by the boys. Where the band have released a clip for a given song, I've used it, and they are scattered throughout the project like golden nuggets of hilarity and, more often than not, lo-fi psychedelic insanity. Where the work was up to me, I've tried very hard to match the mood and theme of the song in question, covering a diverse mix of visual content, all of which comes with a healthy sprinkling of my own brand of psychedelia. So, you have two options to dig into this glorious mess. Here you can find the Odyssey Project Download Links (via Google Drive), a folder hosted online with the files ready to be grabbed and owned forever. This is the best option by far, provided you have the space and bandwidth to download the admittedly large files. The other option is to scroll below, and click the links one by one. This will open the movie for a streaming 'preview', essentially YouTube, which, whilst convenient, the quality suffers from compression and is unable to be loaded into a playlist etc, since it's coming straight from Google Drive. Book 1 - Failures of Humanity and the Rise of the Altered Beast (1:28:53) Book 2 - The Open Door, The Battle Of Gods, and the Rats of Mars (1:26:12) Book 3 - Microtonal Hellscape and Han Tyumi's Vomitverse (1:07:50) Book 4 - Crumbling Castles, Dream-escapes, and the Fall of Polygondwanaland (1:19:13) Book 5 - The Altered Plan of the Consciousness Can (1:26:34) If the book names above mean nothing to you, or you want to dig in a little more into the whys and hows and whens of what I've done, and what this narrative could possibly be, keep scrolling. I've written up a paragraph or so to explain the core concepts of each book, which may help or confuse. Either way, Enjoy. Book 1 - Failures of Humanity and the Rise of the Altered Beast (9. 33gb, 1:28:53 runtime, mainly PMDB/Mind Fuzz/MotU content) CONCEPT; The failures of humanity are mounting, pressing, and inevitable, given the human races' lack of desire to embrace anything but the status quo. We slip into our extinction with barely a pause or whimper, willingly ignorant of the issues we face - social, environmental, and, it turns out, existential... The Altered Beast rises as a consequence of an Altered world, marking the start of a new era, where humanity can no longer ignore the damage we have done, or the bleak future we face. TRACKLIST; The Failures of Humanity Beginner's Luck - ".. Beginners Luck, now don't mess it up... " Sense - "It's in vogue, to be feckless, when it comes to the mother taking care of us. I know it's so conventional, but it don't make no sense at all. But in fact, it's a pattern, everything I hear will always make me ashen... " Bone - ".. Heaven is a place I know, I won't be taking my bones... " Paper Mache Dream Balloon - ".. you eluding, that I'm brooding? Moping around on my own. Stuck in a daydream, under a moonbeam, head on my pillow at home... " NGRI - "I've awoken from my slumber, I was dreaming 'bout a flood, covered in my blood. Now my pits are getting sweaty, it's a sign I have to go, back to where I know... " Empty - "Empty. Life is nothing like it used to be, feeling so empty... " Hot Water - ".. ending, Whispers trending, Heat is coming, everybody's stranded in... " Bitter Boogie - "... I wouldn't like to say I didn't warn ya'... " Slow Jam 1 - ".. when it feels like coming on, Boy it makes it hard to talk, for me... " Satan Speeds Up - ".. when I stop to think of all that we've done, Satan's at the door... " Her and I |Slow Jam 2| - "It wouldn't hurt to give you more, of my love. The sun shone through into a wave of thought... " Billabong Valley - "... Bloodthirsty tendancies, Mad Dog Morgan. He never gave a warning... " Anoxia - ".. waste no time, leaving in light, a different sun bakes the breeze tonight. My mind wanders, alone... " Am I In Heaven? - "Got ideas in my brain about the end of the world that I won't even say. When all the bricks that built our brain have been turned into sand by the eternal wave. Oh, if we save her, we'll live on a star. Mother nature made everybody else so far... " Paper Mache - Instrumental The Rise of the Altered Beast A New World - "As soon as the dust settles, you can see, a new world in place of where the old one had been. Your skin is crawling with dry, crusted mud, and your naked feet are wet in a pool of blood... " Altered Beast I - ".. came from underneath, I met an Altered Beast... " Alter Me I - ".. all it's revulsion, and warp, and taboo, a part of you wants to be Altered, too... " Altered Beast II - ".. harm could a mere mortal like you do? I am the Golden Wolf, and you are caribou... " Alter Me II - ".. dumb human head is filled with naivete; your impending fate is to be one with me... " Altered Beast III - ".. on my skin, and I'm feeling beastly, Feel it trickle in, a new life in me...... I see you, and I can see right through, I see you, and I will take you to my Altered world... " Alter Me III - "Altered Beast, Alter Me! " Altered Beast IV - ".. sole thing that will make your void obsolete, is to find someone new, some sapid fresh meat...... I think I see, an Altered Beast, Inside Me! I am an Altered Beast! " Mr Beat - ".. days seem so absurd, lightning that's unlikely heard, Nova sunshine while I nap, making all my dreams so sad... " Evil Death Roll - ".. night is young - full of sin, time to slither away again, You can see our history hanging on a Knife, so let's start killing things. 'Cos you started everything. And let's start severing limbs... " Life/Death - "Are you you? Are you me? Or someone inbetween? You lost track inside the labyrinthine. You lost your will, and your sanity; you certainly lost your humanity. In life, you have taken much more than your worth, now it's your turn to give back to the earth. May you return to the ground and ossify, it's time for you to die, die, die. " Book 2 - The Open Door, The Battle Of Gods, and the Rats of Mars (8. 88gb, 1:26:12 runtime, mainly Nonagon/Mind Fuzz/MotU/ITRN content) CONCEPT; Powers beyond our current understanding battle for supremacy in this era of decline. But before we are ready to understand the forces that are, that be, we must understand the power that is - The power of the Nonagon. Wild and bizarre and infinite, the Door to this realm is opened, and from Hell the demons pour forth. First among the new rulers of a ruined world is the Lightning Lord, supreme in power and arrogance, and his battle with the Hell-sent Balrog is wrecking and disastrous. From the rubble climbs forth brave human survivors; keen to make amends and tell their story, keener still to exact vengeance on the remnant of the precursors who bought forth this folly. TRACKLIST; The Open Door Some Context - Instrumental Invisible Face - "... I climb up the stalk and plant the bean, the Universe is a machine, that has awoken from a dream... " Wah Wah - "... I can feel the earth is moving, underneath my hoofed foots earthing. Fire protrudes from whence I'm pointing, fading every jewel... " Road Train - ".. the desert to the trees, Obliteration of the place, From the fire to the sea, Nonagon Infinity is coming! " Gamma Knife - ".. and Honey for my body, come on through the door, see; It's your unborn self... " People-Vultures - ".. Vultures, God approaches, final hearing, disappearing, tainted voodoo, headless guru, final head-spin, what else have I got left to spew down? " Some Context |redux| - Instrumental The Battle Of Gods The Reticent Raconteur - ".. time I think of the poor lot I recall, the fear upon their faces and the doomed fate of them all. I saw Death become of Light, and Life become of Fire... " The Lord of Lightning - "... Floating Fire, Golden Wire, Silver Trails, Flashing Spire..... from the Lord's electric snare, one goes in His electric chair..... the figure sprung up and at once it caught alight, and the creature known as Balrog was born that very night... " I'm In Your Mind - "... Everybody's lazy 'cause they're fried, 'cause everybody's sucking on fluoride, when I'm in your mind, then I'm in your mind... " I'm Not In Your Mind - Instrumental Cellophane - ".. can colour everything you see, it's so strange... " I'm In Your Mind Fuzz - ".. everybody's filing into line, 'cause everybody's sucking on fluoride, when I'm in your mind... " The Balrog - ".. caused a massive rift, you made the atom split, and it came screaming through, here to bite the head off you! " Trapdoor - ".. everybody goes to great lengths, for sure, to hide themselves away, and keep the beast at bay... " The Great Chain Of Being - "... I usurp the pre
As anyone who hasn’t spent the last month under a rock knows, the COVID-19 coronavirus is a big deal to the global economy, and governments have taken a number of potentially disruptive measures to contain it. The aim of this post is to look somewhat closely at the likely impact to the economy of this famously unstable country, and to briefly weigh the policy actions of the Alberto Fernández administration against their costs. A little context Argentina and economic collapse, name a more iconic duo. In the past decade, the inflation rate went from the twenties to the fifties, and 2019 had the highest recorded figure in almost thirty years: 53. 8%. The country has not grown for two consecutive years in an entire decade, and official figures for most relevant variables, including unemployment and production, are unreliable (to put it kindly) since the official statistics agency was intervened by politicians and pretty much faked its data for ten years. In 2015, the reign of a faction of Peronism (the dominant political ideology/party in Argentina, an economically left, nationalistic, autarchic, anti-globalization movement) known as Kirchnerism, with more ties to the hard left and more socially progressive than the rest of the party, came to a close after 12 years of dominance: their prefered Presidential candidate, Daniel Scioli (an unpopular, unexciting, uncharismatic Governor who lost an arm in a boat racing accident) narrowly lost a runoff to the center-right Mauricio Macri, the mayor of the country’s capital. Macri ran on a platform of change (his coalition of centrist parties was literally named Cambiemos, or Let’s Change) and promised to lower taxes, reduce regulations, open the economy, and lead Argentina into a new era of market-based prosperity. This did not pan out: after a rocky first year, where the lifting of currency controls and sky high raises in public utilities led to a 40% inflation rate, nearly 15 point above the previous year’s, 2017 looked bright: GDP grew, wages increased, inflation returned to its prior levels and seemed to be going down, and the government scored a double-digit win in the midterms. 2018 was even more promising, until May: following a series of policy and communications missteps by the government, investors became more bullish on the nation’s ability to repay its significant dollar-denominated debt; when the Fed raised rates in May, capitals bled out of the country and the peso began depreciating for months, more than doubling from 19 pesos per dollars to over 40 by the end of the year; the economy took a beating, with GDP collapsing and completely erasing the previous year’s gains. 2019 was tougher: Macri became, obviously, increasingly unpopular - but still stood a chance because his likeliest rival, the divisive and corrupt former President and sitting Senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, appeared to be an even less palatable candidate - and voters going to moderate Peronist economist Roberto Lavagna looked more like Macri than Kirchner supporters. In an unexpected, risky gambit, Kirchner picked her former Chief of Staff, the little known and more moderate Alberto Fernández (no relation, it’s a common surname) to run for President, with her being his running mate. This bet paid off: Fernández united the entire Peronist party (no easy task, since Kirchner wasn’t particularly popular with Peronist Governors) and surpassed all expectations: while polling had him in dead heat against Macri, the high number of undecided voters made the race extremely volatile. After two hours of delays, the results of the national primaries (basically a trial election) came in: Fernández had beat Macri by nearly 20 points, 49 to 32, and was, by all intents and purposes, the next President. The markets did not take this well, since the winning candidate was notoriously vague and tight lipped in his positions: in a single day, stocks and bonds plummeted by 55%, and the peso depreciated another 33% - to 63 pesos. Macri performed better in the October elections, getting 40% to Fernández’s 48% due to higher turnout, but still lost. 2019 was another bad year: GDP shrank by 2. 2%, unemployment soared to 9. 7% (it later came down to 8. 9%), and poverty rose from 25. 4% (a historic low) in 2017 to 35. 4% in the first semester; the only positive figures are the fiscal deficit, which went from 4% in 2015 to 0. 5% in 2019, and the trade balance, which reversed sign and was an astounding 19 billion surplus; the current account deficit was reduced from a staggering 31 billion in 2017 to 3. 4 billion in 2019, the lowest since 2012 and mostly caused by the positive trade and service balances. The Fernandez administration, meanwhile, surprised in its moderation: efforts have been made to somewhat maintain fiscal balance, while also increasing welfare payments without committing “populist excesses”, to somewhat speak. The fiscal balance has been weak, though, with Economy Minister Martín Guzmán only vowing a surplus in 2023 and returning to the much dreaded “gradualism” of the Macri era. Fernández seemed mostly interested in one issue: restructuring the country’s substantial debt (nearly 90% of GDP), which included a record breaking program by the IMF and the products of a previous restructuring, in 2005, after the country defaulted in 2002 (it would partially default again in 2014) - Guzmán himself is an academic focusing on the issue, and a disciple of the “heterodox” Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz at Columbia. The healthcare system Argentina’s healthcare system is complex, heterogenous, and very poorly supervised - public health is not mentioned in the Constitution, putting it under the purview of provinces, except for some compromises between jurisdictions to make it run smooth. Considering the demand side of healthcare, the age structure of Argentina is not particularly concerning: only 15% of the population is over 60, and, on average, 88. 5% of those over 60% have some kind of health insurance. Speaking of, 60% have any kind of insurance, according to census data - higher with age. Although 35. 4% of the country lives in poverty, this number plummets to around 10% in older groups - providing a better safety net for the most vulnerable groups (children, by comparison, have a 52. 5% rate). The country is only worryingly densely populated around the nation’s capital, the City of Buenos Aires, whose metro area comprises 13 million people and an expanded definition is inhabited by almost 20. On the provider side, the country’s hospitals are mostly run by the provinces, except a handful in the orbit of the national government. According to the government, the country spent 9. 8% of GDP on healthcare - 6. 6% by the public sector, and 2. 8% by private companies. The country seems to have a low number of physicians, hospital beds, and nurses - yet the larger provinces with a higher number of cases seem better prepared. Still, the glaring inequalities in the country make it clear that being ill in the wealthy City of Buenos Aires or the oil producing, sparsely populated Santa Cruz would be highly preferable to Chaco or Misiones. Another notable issue is the disparity between systems: private insurers (“prepagas”) offer extremely high quality care, as does PAMI, Argentina’s equivalent to Medicare (it is, in fact, a state-run public insurer for the elderly). The problem comes with the public system, which is much higher quality in richer provinces, especially in the less populated Patagonia. The country, despite not being at such apparent risk, has taken measures extremely early: a full quarantine was announced roughly 20 days after the first confirmed case. The main situation is the country has only really tested those who either traveled abroad recently or were in close contact to those who did - meaning that official statistics of 500 infected, 8 dead aren’t particularly meaningful, and the number of tests administered isn’t publicly available. Employment, poverty, and consumption The country being under a quarantine poses a significant risk: 35% of the labor force works in the informal sector, and another 15% is self-employed. This means that, under a lockdown, nearly half of the population wouldn’t receive any income. The Catholic University of Argentina's Observatory for Social Debt (sworn enemies of mine, if you’ve read my previous post on poverty) estimates that 32% of people don’t receive any kind of formal salary, and that just two thirds of those families don’t even collect welfare checks - so 10% of homes will be deprived of all forms of income during a lockdown. The government has tried to mitigate this: bonuses for welfare recipients and the poorest retirees were announced, a $10. 000 bonus for the unemployed, and some self-employed people was enacted, and the steps have been taken to ensure that people don’t lose access to basic necessities: a temporary ban on eviction and loss of utilities, a freeze on housing credits and rent, and price controls. The Social Development Minister, Daniel Arroyo, recently declared that 11 million people are receiving nutritional assistance, 3 million more than before - and 3. 5 million of whom are children. The consulting firm IDESA paints an even bleaker picture: they claim 45% of all Argentinians live off of informality, meaning the quarantine, on this basis alone, could deal a crippling blow to nearly a majority of families. Others have gone further: a recent report claims that 5. 5 million people are at “very high” risk of losing their jobs based on their employment status (self employed of informal) and at slightly lower risk depending on the sector they work in, even if they are registered. The government responded to this by banning firings and suspensions by decree, which will obviously negatively affect job creation (which is at historic lows anyway, according to Ministry o
Why is it called Minions 2? This sequel is more revolved around young Gru for the sake of it. The road not taken analysis.