忘却からの帰還〜Atomic Age

「北半球が核戦争で壊滅し、1年後には南半球も致命的な放射性物質が到達して、人類が滅亡する」という、核の時代初期のSFである「On the beach(渚にて)」(1957)は、テクニカルには間違っているが、もっともらしい印象を与える。

Interestingly, as Aristotle pointed out in the Poetics, an action may be plausible without being possible. In On the Beach, Shute suggests that human life could be destroyed if the United States and the Soviet Union fought each other using hydrogen bombs sheathed in cobalt. Shute postulates that the fallout produced by such bombs would remains lethally radioactive for five years after the initial explosions, during which time it could be carried by winds all over the globe. This scenario seemed plausible and was certainly terrifying. There is evidence to suggest that the novel, and the film that was subsequently made from it did have an effect on people's attitudes toward nuclear weapons. But the viability of Shute's projection is actually problematical. It is technically feasible to sheathe hydrogen bombs in cobalt, thereby increasing the length of time their fallout would remain radioac-tive, but Dyson asserts that, wind patterns being what they are, the fallout would not spread to the Southern Hemisphere quickly enough to destroy all life on earth.[14] He goes on to point out that the fallout that did come down would fall in patches, allowing people to escape death by fleeing to shelters.

興味深いことに、アリストテレスが詩学で指摘したように、行動は実現可能ではなくても、もっともらしいかもしれない。「On the beach(渚にて)」で、Shuteは、米国とソビエト連邦がコバルトで覆われた水爆を使用して戦った場合、人類が滅びる可能性があると示唆している。Shuteは、そのような爆弾によって生成される放射性降下物は、核爆発後の5年間は致命的に放射能を保ったままであり、その間に風によって世界中に運ばれると仮定した。このシナリオはもっともらしく思えて、確かに恐ろしいものだった。この小説及びそれを原作とする映画が、核兵器に対する人々の態度に影響を及ぼしたことを示唆する証拠がある。しかし、Shuteの予測の実現可能性は、実際には問題がある。水素爆弾をコバルトで覆って放射性物質の持続時間を長くすることはテクニカルに実現可能だが、風のパターンが実際のものであれば、放射性物質が南半球に急激に拡散して、地球上のすべての生命を滅ぼすことは不可能だと、Dysonは指摘する。[14] さらに、Dysonは、放射性降下物は一様に降ってくるわけではなく、人々がシェルターに避難することで、死を免れることは可能だろうと指摘する。

Despite this crucial lapse, however, the novel is persuasive for two reasons, First, it is plausible. Someone not trained in the complexities of meteorological phenomena could well accept the scenario Shute presents. Helen Caldicott, for example, traces her opposition to nuclear arms to her reading of the novel while she was in medical school during the 1950s. Second, Shute's story does render in simplified, and therefore readily understandable, terms the concept that man does in fact possess the capacity to destroy life on the planet. Granted, the pattern of bombing in an actual war would probably limit the immediate effects of the weapons to areas in the United States, Western Europe, China, and the Soviet Union, but the only factor limiting the bombing to those areas is the drift of current strategic planning. The delivery systems now is use could carry nuclear destruction to virtually any place on the globe.

しかしながら、この重大な誤りがあるにもかかわらず、この小説は2つの理由で説得力がある。第1に、もっともらしい。気象現象の複雑さに関する教育を受けていない人々なら、Shuteが提示するシナリオを十分に受け入れられるだろう。たとえば、1950年代に医学部に在学していたHelen Caldicottは、この小説を読んで、自らの核武装反対をなぞっている。第2に、Shuteの小説は、単純化されており、それ故に容易に理解可能であり、人類が地球上の全生命を滅ぼす力を実際に持っているという概念を表現てきている。確かに、実際の戦争での直接的核攻撃の対象地域は、おそらく米国・西欧・中国・ソビエト連邦に限定されるだろうが、それは現在の戦略計画によるものだ。現在の戦略計画で使用される核兵器搬送システムは、地球上のあらゆる場所を核で破壊できる。

Moreover, as Jonathan Schell points out in The Fate of the Earth, even the experts still do not know what the full effects of a widespread use of nuclear weapons would be. In attempting to determine how the destruction of life in the Northern Hemi-sphere would affect the whole ecosystem of the Earth, he himself suggests that it might damage that system beyond repair. In the early 1980s, a number of scientists concerned about the ecological effects of nuclear war embarked on a study which ultimately suggested that the firestorms generated by nuclear attacks on cities would throw up a cloud of smoke and dust thick enough to block out the sun and cause a so-called "nuclear winter," which would destroy crops and produce a worldwide famine.[15] In 1986 a Defense Department report confirmed the general validity of this theory.[16] Thus, even if the Southern Hemisphere did not perish along with the Northern as a result of the direct effects of nuclear weapons, it might well perish as the result of indirect effects, thereby substantiating the essential theme of Shute's novel: that man has the power to commit species suicide and must confront that power before it destroys him.

さらに、Jonathan Schellが「The Fate of the Earth」(1982)で指摘したように、専門家も核兵器の広範囲な使用による影響がどんなものか完全には知らない。Schell自身も、北半球の生命が滅ぼされることが、地球の生態系全体にどのような影響を与えるか判断しようとする際に、修復不可能なまでに生態系を損う可能性があると示唆している。1980年代初頭に、核戦争の生態学的影響を懸念している多くの科学者たちは、都市への核攻撃によって発生した火事が、最終的には太陽光を遮るのに十分な厚さの煙と塵の雲を作り出し、「いわゆる核の冬を引き起こし、それにより農作物が破壊し、世界規模の飢饉を生み出す」ことを示唆する研究に着手した。[15]　1986年に国防総省の報告書がこの理論の全般的な妥当性を確認した。したがって、たとえ南半球が核兵器の直接効果の結果として北半球と共に滅びなかったとしても、間接的な効果の結果として滅びるかもしれない、それにより、「人類は自滅するだめの力を持っており、そうなる前にその力と立ち向かわなければならない」という、Shuteの小説の本質的なテーマを実証されている。

[14] Dyson, F., Weapons and Hope, 33-34. 1984
[15] Paul R. Ehrlich, et al., The Cold and the Dark (N.Y.: W. W. Norton, 1984), xiii-xiv.
[16] Sharon Begley and John Barry, "A Milder Nuclear Winter," Newsweek 31 March 1986, 65.

[ Patrick Mannix: "The Rhetoric of Antinuclear Fiction: Persuasive Strategies in Novels and Films" (1992) ]

実際には、コバルト爆弾が開発・実験されたことはなかったようだが、確かに「コバルト爆弾による放射能が南半球にも及び、静かに死を迎える」というストーリーと設定は、とても印象的で、もっともらしい印象を与える。

なお、コバルト爆弾は、映画「Beneath the Planet of the Apes(続・猿の惑星)」(1970)から、ゲーム「Metro Exodus」(2019)に至るまで、ときおりSFにそれらしく登場している。

• Dr. Strangelove(1964)

Russian Ambassador: When it is detonated, it will produce enough lethal radioactive fallout so that within ten months, the surface of the Earth will be as dead as the moon!

Turgidson: Ah, come on DeSadeski, that's ridiculous. Our studies show that even the worst fallout is down to a safe level after two weeks.

Russian Ambassador: You've obviously never heard of cobalt thorium G!

Turgidson: (pauses) Well, what about it?

Russian Ambassador: Cobalt thorium G has a radioactive halflife of ninety three years. If you take, say, fifty H-bombs in the hundred megaton range and jacket them with cobalt thorium G, when they are exploded they will produce a doomsday shroud. A lethal cloud of radioactivity which will encircle the earth for ninety three years!

• Goldfinger

James Bond : You plan to break into the world's largest bank, but not to steal anything. Why?

Auric Goldfinger : Go on, Mr. Bond.

James Bond : [thinking] Mr. Ling, the Red Chinese at the factory, he's a specialist in nuclear fission... but of course! His government's given you a bomb.

Auric Goldfinger : I prefer to call it an "atomic device." It's small, but particularly dirty.

James Bond : A dirty bomb? Cobalt and iodine?

Auric Goldfinger : Precisely.

• Beneath the Planet of the Apes(1970)

Brent: Taylor, they've got a bomb. An atomic bomb. It's operational. They intend to use it.

Taylor: What type is it?

Brent: I don't know what type. I've never seen that design before.

Taylor: Didn't you see a serial number?

Brent: No. No numbers. Just some letters on one of the fins. Greek letters. Alpha, and...

Taylor: [quietly] ...and Omega.

Brent: What?!

Taylor: The doomsday bomb. Another lovely souvenir from the 20th Century. They weren't satisfied with a bomb that could knock out a city. They finally built one with a cobalt casing, all in the sweet name of peace.

Brent: Those bloody fools! They don't know what they've got. They pray to the damn thing! If they shoot it off at some of those apes, it could set off a chain reaction in the whole atmosphere.

Taylor: Burn the planet to a cinder. How's that for your ultimate weapon?

• Metro Exodus (2019)

The City of Novosibirsk was the third largest city of Russia before the Great war. During the war, Novosibirsk was the target of an extremely potent cobalt bomb. As a result, despite most of the buildings remaining intact, the radiation is more than eight times that of Moscow. Despite the metro not being as deep as the one in Moscow, numerous people found shelter in it and survived for quite some time.

[ FANDOM Metro Exodus Wiki - Novosibirsk ]

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